均生函数与BP神经网络耦合模拟预测模型(MGF-BP-I)的建立与应用

水文气候因子模拟预测对气候变化研究、农业墒情预报、生态环境改善、水资源合理开发利用等具有一定参考意义。均生函数、BP神经网络及其结合改进方式在模拟预测中各有优点,被广泛应用,但仍有进一步改进空间。针对MGF、MGF-OSR、MGF-OSR-BP等方法粗选因子集、粗选集组合筛选、收敛适应性、精度控制等可改进空间,进一步发挥均生函数和BP神经网络优势,建立了MGF-BP-I模拟预测模型。利用MGF-OSR、MGF-OSR-BP、MGF-BP-I对科尔沁沙地区域平均年降水进行了模拟预测。结果表明,建模期MGF-OSR-BP、MGF-BP-I拟合效果均较好,MGF-BP-I建模阶段最优模式精度优于MGF-OSR-BP,MGF-BP-I整体同时最优模式结果也非常好。检验期,MGF-BP-I检验阶段最优及整体同时最优两种模式拟合效果最好,相比其他模式精度有所提高。MGF-BP-I考虑更加全面,充分发挥了均生函数和BP神经网络优势,精度远高于MGF-OSR和MGF-OSR-BP,MGF-BP-I整体同时最优模式更符合实际应用,效果理想,可用于水文气候因子模拟预测。     

基于层次分析法的德州地面沉降易发区的可拓学划分应用

基于物元模型的可拓学理论分析,提出华北平原德州地面沉降易发区的可拓学划分方法。利用地面沉降易发性分级、分类标准和影响因子分析,构造出经典域物元和节域物元,应用物元和可拓集合中的关联函数,建立了易发性等级综合评判的可拓评价模型,通过基于层次分析法的可拓学评价分析,采用正方形等间距(2km×2km)剖分了135个网格,再将剖分单元转化成面元,经过等值差分,得到了地面沉降易发区划结果。计算结果显示,可拓学方法能够实现定量化、多因子评价地面沉降易发性等级问题,从而科学合理地指导地面沉降综合分区防治。     

肥城市土地生态系统安全评价研究

在分析土地生态系统安全内涵的基础上,以肥城市为研究区域,选取24个指标构建土地生态系统安全评价指标体系,采用熵值法、综合指数法和GIS相结合的方法,对肥城市2000—2013年的土地生态系统安全状况进行分析。研究结果表明:14年来,肥城市土地生态系统安全状况处于波动状态,土地生态系统安全面临着诸多压力。最后提出了提高土地生态系统安全状况的对策建议。     

冈瓦纳大陆边缘罗斯运动的岩浆活动时代:来自北维多利亚地松散沉积物锆石年龄的证据

横穿南极大陆中部的横贯南极山脉是早古生代时期古太平洋向东冈瓦纳活动大陆边缘俯冲形成的罗斯造山带,该阶段的地层沉积、变形变质以及花岗质岩浆侵入代表了罗斯运动的演化过程。由于岩浆活动与沉积地层和变形变质在时代上存在明显差异,罗斯运动的时代仍缺乏精确的限定。通过采集北维多利亚地难言岛地区冰碛物和海岸沉积物中的松散砂砾石样品,并进行碎屑锆石U-Pb测年得出:4件不同粒径的冰碛物和海岸沉积样品中的碎屑锆石年龄峰谱具有单一峰谱的特征,年龄区间为2443~323 Ma,主要集中于530~450 Ma之间,峰值年龄约为485 Ma;锆石Th/U比值均大于0.1,而且以＞0.4为主,其CL图像也具有明显的振荡环带,稀土元素特征主体具有岩浆锆石的特征,反映了样品物源区岩浆活动的时代特征。碎屑锆石年龄组成与周缘地区岩浆活动和陆内变形以及沉积地层时代基本一致,表明北维多利亚地及其周缘地区在罗斯运动晚期陆内变形阶段的岩浆活动应持续至450 Ma,这可能代表了罗斯运动结束的时代,该结果为冈瓦纳大陆边缘罗斯运动的构造演化过程提供了新的约束。      

The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes

Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions.     

The role of global dietary transitions for safeguarding biodiversity

Diets lower in meat could reduce agricultural expansion and intensification thereby reducing biodiversity impacts. However, land use requirements, associated with alternate diets, in biodiverse regions across different taxa are not fully understood. We use a spatially explicit global food and land system model to address this gap. We quantify land-use change in locations important for biodiversity across taxa and find diets low in animal products reduce agricultural expansion and intensity in regions with high biodiversity. Reducing ruminant meat consumption alone however was not sufficient to reduce fertiliser and irrigation application in biodiverse locations. The results differed according to taxa, emphasising that land-use change effects on biodiversity will be taxon specific. The links shown between global meat consumption and agricultural expansion and intensification in the biodiverse regions of the world indicates the potential to help safeguard biodiverse natural ecosystems through dietary change.     

Counter-conducts and the green grab: Forest peoples’ resistance to industrial resource extraction in the Saracá-Taquera National Forest,Brazilian Amazonia

This paper contributes to the theory of environmentality – the ‘conduct of conduct’ with regard to the environment – by incorporating Foucault’s notion of counter-conducts to elucidate the political subjectivities emergent from the performance of dissent in relation to different forms of power – sovereign, disciplinary and biopower – through which a spatialized rational-technical governmentality of ‘green’ mining and logging is enacted in Saracá-Taquera National Forest (FLONA), Brazilian Amazonia. We analyse the counter-conductive subjectivities emergent from forest peoples’ political articulation through identity categories riberinhos and quilombolas (enshrined in the 1988 Constitution and subsequent laws), claiming of rights to delimit areas of traditional use and ancestral territories, along with direct action, critical discourse and reassertion of agroecological knowledge against industrial resource extraction. To capture the dynamic relation of the conduct of conduct to counter-conducts we draw on a late Foucauldian model of a self, wherein his earlier focus on how the Panopticon shapes self-discipline is complemented by a turn to care for and ethics of the self - practices of freedom through which subjects have the potential to transcend self-discipline. We use this lens to illuminate two case-studies, one focusing on mining, the other on timber, exploring how in this protected area - which permits the ‘sustainable’ industrial extraction of natural resources - the state, companies and an NGO try to shape forest peoples as ‘green’ subjects. Counter-conducts provide the theory of environmentality with a broader perspective on resistance foregrounding the production of political subjectivities in dissent whilst breaking with the resistance-domination binary.     

海南岛不同土地覆盖资料对WRF模拟的影响*

提取GLC2009土地覆盖数据,将其运用到WRF数值模式并与模式自带的MODIS、USGS土地覆盖进行对比,以海南岛做为研究区域,选择一次海风锋天气过程进行敏感性分析,结果表明：①GLC2009对海南岛农耕地、森林的划分最接近实际情况,在海南岛平原以及丘陵地带,MODIS和USGS划分的农耕地比例过高,而在山区森林比例偏低;②GLC2009、MODIS、USGS对海南岛北部的降水模拟出现了空报,但是GLC2009对东海岸的强降水模拟的较好,并避免了MODIS和USGS在海南西南部的降水空报的情况;③GLC2009模拟的10米风场清晰刻画了东海岸海风锋辐合,其相对合理的森林覆盖提高了地表粗糙度并增强了风场辐合、低反照率对地面气温的增加和海陆热力差异的增强有一定的促进作用。④GLC2009对这次海风锋过程中模拟的感热通量和潜热通量都要高于MODIS和USGS,这种陆气间的热通量交换利于强对流天气的触发,发展。     

第三次国土调查城镇村内部细化调查方法研究

基于第三次国土调查城镇村内部细化调查的工作要求和数据基础,梳理了城镇村调查边界划定、城镇村土地利用框架构建、城镇村土地利用图斑转绘、城镇村土地利用类型判定、外业补充调查等城镇村内部细化调查环节;归纳了1:2000基础地理信息数据、不动产登记数据、基础性地理国情监测数据等已有调查成果在各调查环节的数据转换利用方式,为城镇...     

基于陆海统筹的海岸带空间功能分区——以宁波市为例

海岸带空间功能分区是优化海岸带开发与保护的基础性工作,在国土空间规划体系中具有重要作用。当前我国海陆功能分区在分区层级、分区方法等方面并不一致,导致海岸带保护与开发利用失衡。本文在梳理国内外海岸带空间功能分区研究的基础上,从陆海统筹角度出发,构建海岸带空间功能分区体系,并以宁波市为例进行验证,在优先划定生态保护区基础上,对海陆空间进行适宜性评价,根据评价结果确定功能分区。结果表明：（1）宁波市海岸带功能区中生态保护区面积占比约为60%,海陆一体发展区占比约为22.3%,海洋发展区占比约为12.5%,陆地发展区占比约为5.2%;(2)宁波市开发利用功能区空间分布与以临港产业、海洋服务业和海洋渔业为基础的海洋经济发展导向相符。海岸带空间功能分区要以生态保护为底线,以优化空间布局为导向,为优化海岸带开发与保护提供有力支撑。