强余震持续时间的早期估计

本研究旨在解决地震序列中强余震持续时间的早期估计问题。文中首先给出了强余震的震级定义，指出：主震型与强震群型序列的强作震持续时间存在差异。使用模式识别方法对主震型序列中强余震持续时间大于１天，小于１天及无强余震等３种情况进行划分之后，给出了两类序列的强余震持续时间与序列和第一震震级的粗略相关关系。     

Time-dependent, coupled, Ekman boundary layer solutions incorporating Stokes drift

Recent technological advances in current measuring devices has resulted in a large observational database related to wind-driven motions in the upper ocean mixed layer. This has served to highlight the fact that transient motions make up a substantial contribution of the resulting Ekman currents. At the same time, certain discrepancies have emerged between the observed angular deflections of the steady-state currents from the surface wind stress, both at the surface and at sub-surface depths, which cannot be reconciled using the classical Ekman model. This paper seeks to tackle these two issues.First a general analytical method is presented for solving the time dependent horizontal momentum Ekman equations. Analysis of the unsteady terms that arise from simple special cases shows how the evolution proceeds through three stages. At early times, the Coriolis acceleration is insignificant, and the current is unidirectional and deepens through downward diffusion of momentum. Later Coriolis acceleration deflects the current vectors in the upper layers, whilst downward diffusion of momentum continues to deepen the layer. Finally, once diffusion has penetrated down to the depth of the steady-state current, then the transients decay on the inertial or diffusive timescale, depending upon the boundary conditions of the particular problem.In the second half of the paper, a new steady-state model is developed that includes the effects of wind-generated waves, through the action of their Stokes drift on the planetary vorticity. Comparisons between observations and the theoretical predictions, demonstrate that inclusion of the Stokes drift is the key to reconciling the discrepancies in the angular deflections of the steady-state currents. This leads to the conclusion that Ekman layer currents are significantly influenced by the surface waves.     

Crystal morphologies in pillow basalts: implications for mid-ocean ridge processes

We present the results of a detailed petrological study of a sparsely phyric basalt (MAPCO CH98-DR11) dredged along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (30°41′N). The sample contains microphenocrysts of olivine that display four different rapid-growth morphologies. Comparison of these morphologies with those obtained in dynamic crystallization experiments allows us to constrain the thermal history of the sample. The dendritic morphology (swallowtail, chain and lattice olivine) is directly related to the final quenching during magma–seawater interaction. In contrast, the three other morphologies, namely the complex polyhedral crystal, the closed hopper and the complex swallowtail morphology result from several cycles of cooling–heating (corresponding to a maximum degree of undercooling of 20–25°C) during crystal growth. These thermal variations occurred before eruption and are interpreted to be the result of turbulent convection in a small magmatic body beneath the ridge. The results suggest that the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is underlain by a mush zone that releases batches of liquid during tectonic segregation. Aphyric basalts are emitted during eruptions controlled by the tectonic activity, whereas phyric basalts correspond to small fractions of magma from the mush zone mobilized by reinjections of primitive magmas.     

Steady, annual, and monthly recharge implied by deep unconfined aquifer flow

We consider the response of a deep unconfined horizontal aquifer to steady, annual, and monthly recharge. A groundwater divide and a zero head reservoir constrain the aquifer, so that sinusoidal monthly and aperiodic annual recharge fluctuations create transient specific discharge near the reservoir and an unsteady water table elevation inland. One existing and two new long-term data sets from the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer in southeastern Massachusetts calibrate and confirm hydraulic properties in a set of analytical models. [Geohydrology and simulated groundwater flow, 1992] data and a new power law for tritiugenic helium to tritium ratios calibrate the steady recharge that drives the classical parabolic model of steady hydraulics [Applied Hydrogeology, 2001]. Observed water table and gradient fluctuations calibrate the transient recharge models. In the latter regard, monitoring wells within 1 km of Buttermilk Bay exhibit appreciable specific discharge and reduced water table fluctuations. We apply [Trans Am Geophys Union 32(1951)238] periodic model to the monthly hydraulics and a recharge convolution integral [J Hydrol 126(1991)315] to annual flow. An infiltration fraction of 0.79 and a consumptive use coefficient of 1.08×10⁻⁸ m/s °C relate recharge to precipitation and daylight weighted temperature across all three time scales. Errors associated with this recharge relation decrease with increasing time scale.     

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.     

Interactive behavior of soil–pile-superstructure system in transient state to liquefaction by means of large shake table tests

Shaking table tests were conducted by means of a large-scale laminar box with 4 m in length, 2 m in width and 2 m in height in order to investigate behavior of a soil-pile-superstructure system in liquefiable ground. A model two-storey structure, supported by a pile group, was set in a saturated sand deposit, and subjected to a sinusoidal base motion with increasing amplitude. Discussions are focused on the transient behavior until soil liquefaction occurs. Main interests are characteristics of springs used in a sway-rocking model and a multi-freedom lumped mass (MFLM) model that are frequently used in soil–pile interaction analysis. The spring constant in the sway-rocking model is represented by restoring force characteristics at the pile head, and that in the MFLM system is represented by an interaction spring connecting the pile to the free field. The transient state prior to soil liquefaction is shown to be important in the design of a pile because dynamic earth pressure shows peak response in this state. The reduction of the stiffness due to excess porewater generation and strain dependent nonlinear behavior is evaluated.     

Ar/Ar ages of tephras intercalated in astronomically tuned Neogene sedimentary sequences in the eastern Mediterranean

We present new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data for sanidine and biotite derived from volcanic ash layers that are intercalated in Pliocene and late Miocene astronomically dated sequences in the Mediterranean with the aim to solve existing inconsistencies in the intercalibration between the two independent absolute dating methods. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar sanidine ages are systematically younger by 0.7-2.3% than the astronomical ages for the same ash layers. The significance of the discrepancy disappears except for the upper Ptolemais ashes, which reveal the largest difference, if an improved full error propagation method is applied to calculate the absolute error in the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages. The total variance is dominated by that of the activity of the decay of ⁴⁰K to ⁴⁰Ar (∼70%) and that the amount of radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar_p in the primary standard GA1550 biotite (∼15%). If the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages are calculated relative to an astronomically dated standard, the influence of these parameters is greatly reduced, resulting in a more reliable age and in a significant reduction of the error in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating.Astronomically calibrated ages for Taylor Creek Rhyolite (TCR) and Fish Canyon Tuff (FCT) sanidine are 28.53±0.02 and 28.21±0.04 Ma (±1 S.E.), respectively, if we start from the more reliable results of the Cretan A1 ash layer. The most likely explanation for the large discrepancy found for the younger Ptolemais ash layers (equivalent to FCT of 28.61 Ma) is an error in the tuning of this part of the sequence.     

运用改进系统建模法对南海气象数据的建模研究

在系统建模理论的基础上,运用改进的动态数据建模方法,对南海气象数据中的温度进行建模并验证了模型的适用性.根据模型推导出格林函数、逆函数和自协方差函数等,并讨论了南海气象数据中温度模型的稳定性、可逆性和合理性.对系统的频率特性和谱函数进行分析讨论,并给出建模过程中的一些图像.根据模型的适用性检验发现,对所研究的气象数据而言,ARMA(4, 3)模型是最合适的,具有平稳可逆性.所有的建模和分析过程在MATLAB上实现.实验结果表明这种建模方案简便易行,能够快速准确地确定系统的合理模型.     

峨嵋玄武岩流体包裹体中铂钯的测定方法研究

峨嵋玄武岩同生流体包裹体在800℃爆裂后，2．0g／L NH4Cl溶液提取流体中Pt、Pd，C-410树脂富集-电感耦合等离子体质谱测定，方法相对误差小于25％。激光拉曼光谱与四级质谱测定包裹体的气液成分结果表明：流体中存在一定量的有机组分，这对Pt、Pd以有机螯合态形式进入流体提供了可能。     

通用洪水预报模型库设计建设研究

在介绍洪水预报模型库的基本概念和性质的基础上，分析了各类洪水预报模型的输入、输出数据类型，规定了各类数据文件格式，设计了洪水预报模型库的通用数据接口，并在中国洪水预报系统中实现了通用洪水预报模型库的建设。