Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km²) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10⁵ m³ and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10⁵ m³ of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m³ s^‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s^‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Exploring the influence of biofilm on short‐term expansion and contraction of supratidal rock: an example from the Mediterranean

Previous geomorphological investigations using the traversing micro‐erosion meter (TMEM) have identified daily and hourly contractions and expansions of littoral rock on a range of lithologies. While organic influences on these patterns have been inferred, this has rarely been tested in a controlled way. Here, a TMEM was used to measure micro‐scale (<mm) topographic changes on supratidal limestone of the Massif des Calanques, southern France. Four TMEM monitoring sites (each 64 cm²) were set up in total, two in the Calanque de Morgiou and two in the Presqu'ile de Cassis. On both shores one TMEM bolt site was positioned on bare rock and the other on colonized rock. TMEM data were collected and the surface micro‐topography mapped for each site at two‐hourly intervals from early morning to late evening across one day in mid‐summer. Significant relative expansion and contraction was observed between measurement periods at all four sites, regardless of biofilm colonization (P < 0.001 in all instances), and sometimes between adjacent zones on the rock surface (at a scale of centimetres). Rock with and without biofilm behaved broadly similarly, but the magnitude of topographic change varied: average movement from one interval to the next was 0.03 mm on bare sites and 0.06 mm on biofilm‐colonized sites. As expected, patterns of surface change related largely to insolation, with greatest movement occurring in the morning and evening when thermal gradients were steepest. Interestingly, the presence of a biofilm intensified rock expansion, but delayed surface response to microclimatic variability. We largely attribute this effect to biofilm influences on surface albedo, and hypothesize that episodes of contraction and expansion are superimposed onto longer (annual to decadal) episodes of surface movement and downwearing. Short‐term TMEM studies therefore need to be coupled with longer‐term seasonal and annual measurements to improve understanding of rock surface dynamics. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mitigating systematic error in topographic models derived from UAV and ground‐based image networks

High resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are increasingly produced from photographs acquired with consumer cameras, both from the ground and from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). However, although such DEMs may achieve centimetric detail, they can also display systematic broad‐scale error that restricts their wider use. Such errors which, in typical UAV data are expressed as a vertical ‘doming’ of the surface, result from a combination of near‐parallel imaging directions and inaccurate correction of radial lens distortion. Using simulations of multi‐image networks with near‐parallel viewing directions, we show that enabling camera self‐calibration as part of the bundle adjustment process inherently leads to erroneous radial distortion estimates and associated DEM error. This effect is relevant whether a traditional photogrammetric or newer structure‐from‐motion (SfM) approach is used, but errors are expected to be more pronounced in SfM‐based DEMs, for which use of control and check point measurements are typically more limited. Systematic DEM error can be significantly reduced by the additional capture and inclusion of oblique images in the image network; we provide practical flight plan solutions for fixed wing or rotor‐based UAVs that, in the absence of control points, can reduce DEM error by up to two orders of magnitude. The magnitude of doming error shows a linear relationship with radial distortion and we show how characterization of this relationship allows an improved distortion estimate and, hence, existing datasets to be optimally reprocessed. Although focussed on UAV surveying, our results are also relevant to ground‐based image capture. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Hydrological evaluation of the LPX dynamic global vegetation model for small river catchments in the UK

Assessments of water resources by using macro‐scale models tend to be conducted at the continental or large catchment scale. However, security of freshwater supplies is a local issue and thus necessitates study at such a scale. This research aims to evaluate the suitability of the Land Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX‐DGVM) for simulating runoff for small catchments in the UK. Simulated annual and monthly runoff is compared against the National River Flow Archive streamflow observations from 12 catchments of varying size (500–10 000 km²) and climate regimes. Results show that LPX reproduces observed inter‐annual and intra‐annual runoff variability successfully in terms of both flow timings and magnitudes. Inter‐annual variability in flow timings is simulated particularly well (as indicated by Willmott's index of agreement values of ≥0.7 for the majority of catchments), whereas runoff magnitudes are generally slightly overestimated. In the densely populated Thames catchment, these overestimations are partly accounted for by water consumption. Seasonal variability in runoff is also modelled well, as shown by Willmott's index of agreement values of ≥0.9 for all but one catchment. Absence of river routing and storage from the model, in addition to precipitation uncertainties, is also suggested as contributing to simulated runoff discrepancies. Overall, the results show that the LPX‐DGVM can successfully simulate runoff processes for small catchments in the UK. This study offers promising insights into the use of global‐scale models and datasets for local‐scale studies of water resources, with the eventual aim of providing local‐scale projections of future water distributions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.