预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

Stratigraphic evolution of a fluvial–eolian succession: The example of the Upper Jurassic—Lower Cretaceous Guará and Botucatu formations, Paraná Basin, Southernmost Brazil

The Guará and Botucatu formations comprise an 80 to 120 m thick continental succession that crops out on the western portion of the Rio Grande do Sul State (Southernmost Brazil). The Guará Formation (Upper Jurassic) displays a well-defined facies shift along its outcrop belt. On its northern portion it is characterised by coarse-grained to conglomeratic sandstones with trough and planar cross-bedding, as well as low-angle lamination, which are interpreted to represent braided river deposits. Southwards these fluvial facies thin out and interfinger with fine- to medium-grained sandstones with large-scale cross-stratification and horizontal lamination, interpreted as eolian dune and eolian sand sheets deposits, respectively. The Botucatu Formation is characterised by large-scale cross-strata formed by successive climbing of eolian dunes, without interdune and/or fluvial accumulation (dry eolian system). The contact between the Guará and the Botucatu formations is delineated by a basin-wide deflation surface (supersurface). The abrupt change in the depositional conditions that took place across this supersurface suggests a major climate change, from semi-arid (Upper Jurassic) to hyper-arid (Lower Cretaceous) conditions. A rearrangement of the Paraná Basin depocenters is contemporaneous to this climate change, which seems to have changed from a more restrict accumulation area in the Guará Formation to a wider sedimentary context in the Botucatu Formation.     

Ultra-rapid landscape response and sediment yield following glacier retreat, Icy Bay, southern Alaska

The páramo is a neotropical alpine ecosystem that covers more than 75,000 km² of the northern Andes of Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Peru. It provides important environmental services: more than 10 million people in the Andean highlands benefit from the water supply and regulation function, which is attributed to the volcanic soils that underlie the ecosystem. The soils are also major carbon sinks of global significance. Severe land use changes and soil degradation threaten both the hydrology and carbon sink function. Nevertheless, soil genesis and properties in the páramo is rather poorly understood, nor are their ecological functions well documented. The impact of the geomorphology of the páramo on soil genesis was studied in the rio Paute basin, south Ecuador. Two toposequences were described and analysed. In each toposequence, four pedons were selected representing summit, backslope, undrained plain situation, and valley bottom positions in the landscape. The soils are classified as Hydric Andosols in the World Reference Base for Soil Resources and Epiaquands or Hydrudands in Soil Taxonomy. They are very acidic and have a high organic matter content, high P deficiency, and Al toxicity. Their water content ranges from 2.64 g g^− 1 at saturation, down to 1.24 g g^− 1 at wilting point, resulting in a large water storage capacity. Two major soil forming processes are identified: (1) volcanic ash deposition and (2) accumulation of organic carbon. Volcanic ash deposits may vary in depth as a result of regional geomorphological factors such as parent material, orientation, slope, and altitude. Organic carbon accumulation is an interaction of both waterlogging, which depends on the position in the landscape, and the formation of organometallic complexes with Al and Fe released during volcanic ash breakdown. Despite the high variability in parent material and topography, the soil is characterised by a notable homogeneity in physico-chemical properties. Statistical analysis reveals that only topographic location has a slight but significant influence on soil pH as well as the organic matter content, saturated conductivity and water retention at high pressure. Finally, the exceptional properties of these soils provide useful insights to improve classification of the Andosols reference group of the FAO World reference Base for Soil Resources.     

Elastic properties and stability of coexisting 3T and 2M 1 phengite polytypes

The elastic properties of coexisting natural 3T and 2M ₁ phengite samples (Cima Pal, Sesia Zone; Val Savenca; Western Alps, Italy) with similar chemical compositions have been studied by room temperature–high pressure powder diffraction, using synchrotron radiation on the ID9A beam-line at ESRF (Grenoble, France). The P–V curves have been modelled by the Birch–Murnaghan model; a third-order expansion fitted to the experimental data yields for 3T and 2M ₁ K ₀=60.4(±0.7) GPa, K′=5.79(±0.11) at V ₀=703.8851 ų, and K ₀=57.3(±1.0) GPa, K′=6.97(±0.24) at V ₀=938.8815 ų, respectively. The relative stability of 3T vs. 2M ₁ has been explored as a function of pressure and temperature in terms of configuration and deformation contributions to the Gibbs energy, using the elastic properties determined here and other thermodynamic parameters from earlier investigations. The results presented agree with the hypothesis of stability of the 3T polytype in the high pressure regime.     

我国西部1∶5万地形图空白区地物解译研究——以西藏那曲其香错地区为例

我国西部部分地区1∶5万地形图数据尚未完成,给区域和国家经济发展带来极大不便。空间技术、计算机技术和信息技术的高速发展为遥感技术应用提供了技术支持,高分辨率影像获取能力的提高为大比例尺地物特征的提取提供了数据可能。本文采用SPOT5遥感影像,以1∶5万地形图图式标准为依据,进行青藏高原其香错地区地物判读,结果表明SPOT5能基本满足1∶5万地形图制图要求。为进一步提高判读结果,可采用多时相、多分辨率影像进行1∶5万地形图地物判读。     

考虑关断时间效应的瞬变电磁一维反演

为克服因关断时间校正而带来的误差,尝试直接对包含关断时间效应的瞬变电磁资料进行反演。正演采用将斜阶跃波离散为多个阶跃波之和的方法,反演采用经典的马奎特法。对模型试算的结果表明,采用该方法直接对斜阶跃响应进行反演,结果比较理想,计算速度也可以接受。     

C1相干算法及其在三维地震资料处理解释中的应用

C1相干算法是计算每道的横测线和相邻纵测线的互相关，依据相干值来判断地层和岩性的横向不均匀性。根据互相关原理，提出了相干体算法中二维和三维C1算法的内容及其具体实现。通过对实际三维地震资料的处理，结合已知地质资料，证明C1相干技术在三维地震资料的断层解释方面有着明显的效果。     

刘桥一矿陷落柱发育规律及含水性研究

根据刘桥一矿1971年建井至今发现的8个陷落柱实际资料，通过对揭露陷落柱的地质、水文地质及分布特征的分析，阐述了陷落柱发育的根基所在，对陷落柱发育规律及成因进行了探讨，对于含水陷落柱的注浆封堵、留设保护煤岩柱，以及本矿矿井的深部开采都具有借鉴意义。     

基于GM(1,1)优化模型的岩石边坡变形预报

岩石边坡系统是一典型灰色系统，其变形发展过程可以用灰色预测模型完成。尽管传统GM（1，1）模型预测有很多成功的实例，但是也存在一些预测偏差过大的情况，必须对其进行优化。逐步迭代法GM（1，1）模型不仅收敛速度快，而且与原始数据库序列的凹凸性保护一致。利用自编的计算程序对马步坎边坡预测测点G1沉降和开裂进行预测分析，结果表明逐步迭代法GM（1，1）优化模型计算精度较传统GM（1，1）模型和背景构造法GM（1，1）优化模型高，较好地反映了岩石边坡的变形趋势。     

三类高强度悬式瓷绝缘子的成分和物相分析

为探讨高原牌70kN和进口120，210kN瓷绝缘子的成分和结构性能，中采用原子吸收光谱（AAS）和X射线衍射（XRD）方法，对三类产品进行了检测。结果表明，有效成分除K2O外，70kN和210kN的SiO2,Al2O3,Fe2O3含量接近，主晶相基本相同，有刚玉，莫来石、石英和长石等；结晶相总量：70kN35%，120kN40%,210kN48%，这表明机械强度愈大，结晶相含量愈高，只需调整70kN原样的部分成分，粒度和工艺，即生产出高等级（如210kN)瓷绝缘子。