对中强地震发震时间的模糊灰色预测

本文视地震系统为模糊灰色系统,由此建立关于发震时间的模糊灰色预测模型,该模型认为已知地震样本集及待预测集的震级分布属模糊正态分布,应用模糊聚类思路于样本集元素的选取,引入最佳震级从属函数μ~*的选择过程。针对可能产生的趋势性偏差,根据实际资料对模型进行了修正。并以华北平原地震带、燕山渤海地震带及山西地震带为例,对模糊灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的实际应用及有关问题进行了初步讨论。     

Tests for individual Sulfate－Containing Particles in Urban Atmosphere in Beijing

Thin film methods and X ray energy dispersive technique were applied to analyze sulfate-containing particles in Beijing in order to examine their features and sources. Atmospheric aerosol particles were collected on electron mi-croscope meshes according to two size ranges: coarse particles (r>0.5μm) and fine particles (0.5μm≥r≥0.1μm) by using a two-stage impactor. It was found fiat more than seventy percent of the fine particles and about twenty percent of the coarse particles were sulfate-containing particles. These particles were formed mainly through heterogeneous nucleation. The element composition analyses revealed that the atmospheric aerosol particles in Beijing were domi-nated by crustal particles and construction dust.     

GBPP－100型地面雨滴谱仪测量的可靠性

用ＧＢＰＰ－１００型地面雨滴谱仪与吸水纸斑，点法进行同步观测，对比分析ＧＢＰＰ－１００型地面雨滴谱仪测量的可靠性。结果表明：（１）两种方法测量雨滴谱所得资料除平均直径、均立方根直径相似性稍差外，其它特征量的线性相关显著性水平均为０．００５；（２）两种方法所得雨滴谱资料除平均直径、均立方根直径、降水强度稍有差异外，其它特征量均无显著差异。     

灰色系统理论在海堤沉降预测中的应用

利用灰色系统理论,对秦山核电站一期海堤沉降进行了预测,以较少的观测样本建立了新陈代谢数列,经后验差检验,观测精度达到一级。由此证明,用ＧＭ（１,１）模型进行预测,建模方便,预测精度高,在大型建筑物变形监测中有较大的实用价值。     

Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。     

超新星遗迹X射线研究

在此介绍我们基于ＡＳＣＡ 和ＲＯＳＡＴ 等Ｘ 射线天文卫星,对３Ｃ３９７ 、Ｇ３２７ ．１１ ．１ 、Ｇ２１ ．５０ ．９ 和ＲＸＪ１７１３ ．７３９４６ 等超新星遗迹的物理特性进行的分析,简要地讨论了３Ｃ３９７ 的非平衡电离双热分量和双极泡结构以及Ｇ３２７ ．１１ ．１ 和Ｇ２１ ．５０ ．９ 中隐匿脉冲星的性质,并提出ＲＸＪ１７１３ ．７３９４６ 和ＡＤ３９３ 客星之间可能的关系。     

A hyperspectral experiment over tropical forests based on the EO-1 orbit change and PROSAIL simulation

ABSTRACT

We designed a unique hyperspectral experiment from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) orbit change to evaluate solar illumination effects over tropical forests in Brazil. Ten nadir-viewing Hyperion images collected over a fixed site and period of the year (July to August) were selected for analysis. We evaluated variations in reflectance and in 16 narrowband vegetation indices (VIs) with increasing solar zenith angle (SZA) from the pre-drift (2004–2008) to the EO-1 drift period (2011–2016). To detect changes in reflectance and shadows, we applied spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and principal component analysis (PCA) and calculated the similarity spectral angle (θ) between the vegetation spectra measured with variable SZA. The magnitude of the illumination effects was also evaluated from change-point analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests applied over the time series. Finally, we complemented our experiment using the PROSAIL model to simulate the VIs variation with increasing SZA resultant from satellite drift. The results showed significant changes in Hyperion reflectance and VIs, especially when the EO-1 crossed the study area at earlier times and larger SZA in 2015 (9:05 a.m.; SZA = 59°) and 2016 (8:30 a.m.; SZA = 67°). Compared to the pre-drift period (10:30 a.m.; SZA = 45°), the SZA differences of 14° (2015) and 22° (2016) increased the shade fractions and decreased the vegetation brightness. PCA separated the pre-drift and drift reflectance datasets, showing shifts in scores due to changes in brightness. θ increased with SZA, indicating changes in the shape of the vegetation spectra with drift. For most VIs, the change-point analysis indicated 2015 (SZA = 59°) as the predominant year of detected changes. Compared to the EO-1 original orbit, the Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI), Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (ARI) and Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) presented the largest positive changes during drift, while the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) had the largest negative changes. The effect size of the illumination geometry on these VIs was large, as indicated by increasing values of the Cohen’s r metric toward 2016. The anisotropy of the Hyperion VIs was generally consistent with that from PROSAIL in the simulated pre-drift and drift periods. Focusing on structural indices, it affected the relationships between VIs and simulated leaf area index (LAI) at large SZA.     

Analyzing ice dynamics using Sentinel-1 data at the Solheimajoküll Glacier,Iceland

ABSTRACT

The climate in southern Iceland has warmed over the last 70 years, resulting in accelerated glacier dynamics at the Solheimajoküll glacier. In this study, we compare glacier terminus locations from 1973 to 2018, to changes in climate across the study area, and we derive ice-surface velocities (2015–2018) from satellite remote-sensing imagery (Sentinel-1) using the offset-tracking method. There have been two regional temperature trends in the study period: cooling (1973–1979) and warming (1980–2018). Our results indicate a time lag of about 20 years between the onset of glacier retreat (?53 m/year since 2000) and the inception of the warming period. Seasonally, the velocity time series suggest acceleration during the summer melt season since 2016, whereas glacier velocities during accumulation months were constant. The highest velocities were observed at high elevations where the ice-surface slope is the steepest. We tested several scenarios to assess the hydrological time response to glacier accelerations, with the highest correlations being found between one and 30 days after the velocity estimates. Monthly correlation analyses indicated inter-annual and intra-annual variability in the glacier dynamics. Additionally, we investigate the linkage between glacier velocities and meltwater outflow parameters as they provide useful information about internal processes in the glacier. Velocity estimates positively correlate with water level and negatively correlate with water conductivity between April and August. There is also a disruption in the correlation trend between water conductivity and ice velocity in June, potentially due to a seasonal release of geothermal water.     

GM(1,1)模型的遗传算法优化及效果检验

对平稳的数据和非平稳数据两种数据序列建立的GM（1，1）模型，分别用加速遗传算法（AGA）和最小二乘法（LSM）对模型参数求解。结果表明：对平稳变化数据序列，两种方法建立的预测模型的拟合优度和预测精度无显著差异；对变化幅度较大的非平稳数据序列，基于AGA的GM（1，1）模型的拟合优度和预测精度高于基于LSM的GM（1，1）模型的拟合优度和预测精度。     

A flare in the mira X oph

Before the observation of the 1974 U Ori eruption, it was considered that the Mira stars had only some regular OH variations. With this eruption, we realized that sometimes flares can occur in this type of star. In the course of an OH Mira star monitoring programme with the Nançay radio telescope, we have discovered a new eruptive type of OH maser emission in several sources. Especially, in early 1992, we observed a quickly rising 1665 Mhz emission in the Mira X Oph. The main characteristics of this flare were: large flux variations independent of the light curve; large degree of circular polarization; radial velocity emission close to the stellar velocity.