基于灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计与实现

通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计。最后利用南方某地区十年来土地利用数据进行系统验证,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能很大地提高预测的精度和效果,符合实际要求。     

我国典型季风海洋性冰川区雪坑中主要阴、阳离子的来源

运用海盐示踪法、相关分析、趋势分析等方法,对我国两处典型季风海洋性冰川(海 螺沟1 号冰川和白水1 号冰川) 积累区雪坑主要化学离子来源进行了综合分析,结果表明： 两冰川区除Na⁺ 是海洋源外,其他离子主要是非海洋源;Cl^-、NO₃ ^-、SO₄ ^2- 、K⁺、Ca²⁺、Mg²⁺ 非 海洋源所占的比重,在海螺沟1 号冰川依次为52%、99%、100%、98%、99.9%、83%,白水 1 号冰川依次为68%、99%、100%、98%、99%、59%;分析认为,海螺沟1 号冰川离子的非 海洋源主要是大气环流远源物质和高原面物质输入,而白水1 号冰川除上述来源外,冰川区 近源物质输入对离子浓度贡献很大。两冰川区各离子具体来源存在较大的差异性并且阴、阳 离子来源的共源性较低,其主要原因是：(1) 冰川区内局地环境的差异,比如岩性、山谷风系 统、地形地貌等;(2) 两冰川区离子淋溶作用强度的差异,分析认为,海螺沟1 号冰川离子淋 溶作用较强;(3) 不同离子的来源方式、沉降方式、自身化学特征以及沉积后过程不同所致。     

青藏高原东南缘次林错岩体晚白垩世—早新生代快速剥蚀

青藏高原东南缘是研究构造、地貌演化和气候变化相互作用的理想场所,前人研究主要揭示了晚始新世—早中新世和晚中新世以来的快速剥蚀事件,缺乏晚白垩世—早新生代时期地貌演化过程的研究。次林错花岗岩已有的低温热年代学数据覆盖了整个新生代时期,为探索该区域新生代早期的剥露演化历史提供了重要资料。该岩体新生代早期冷却事件是岩浆冷却单一作用的结果,还是受快速剥蚀作用的影响,目前仍然存疑,需要定量研究。因此,本文结合已有的岩石地化和年代学数据,对次林错花岗岩开展了锆石饱和温度和一维岩浆冷却模拟研究。锆石饱和温度计算结果表明次林错花岗岩的岩浆结晶温度介于647～705℃之间,属低温花岗岩。一维岩浆冷却模拟结果显示岩体侵位时的最小围岩温度为160～120℃,对应深度约为3.7～5.0 km。结合锆石和磷灰石(U-Th)/He年代学数据,本文认为该岩体在晚白垩世—早新生代时期(67～40 Ma)经历了一期剥蚀量至少为2 km的快速剥蚀事件。已发表成果的综合分析表明,此次快速剥露事件可能是整个青藏高原地区广泛存在的构造剥蚀事件,新特提斯洋的俯冲闭合与印亚板块的初始碰撞可能是触发此次大规模区域剥蚀的主要原因。     

The strain‐dependent spatial evolution of garnet in a high‐P ductile shear zone from the Western Gneiss Region (Norway): a synchrotron X‐ray microtomography study

Reaction and deformation microfabrics provide key information to understand the thermodynamic and kinetic controls of tectono‐metamorphic processes, however, they are usually analysed in two dimensions, omitting important information regarding the third spatial dimension. We applied synchrotron‐based X‐ray microtomography to document the evolution of a pristine olivine gabbro into a deformed omphacite–garnet eclogite in four dimensions, where the 4^th dimension is represented by the degree of strain. In the investigated samples, which cover a strain gradient into a shear zone from the Western Gneiss Region (Norway), we focused on the spatial transformation of garnet coronas into elongated garnet clusters with increasing strain. The microtomographic data allowed quantification of garnet volume, shape and spatial arrangement evolution with increasing strain. The microtomographic observations were combined with light microscope and backscatter electron images as well as electron microprobe (EMPA) and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) analysis to correlate mineral composition and orientation data with the X‐ray absorption signal of the same mineral grains. With increasing deformation, the garnet volume almost triples. In the low‐strain domain, garnet grains form a well interconnected large garnet aggregate that develops throughout the entire sample. We also observed that garnet coronas in the gabbros never completely encapsulate olivine grains. In the most highly deformed eclogites, the oblate shapes of garnet clusters reflect a deformational origin of the microfabrics. We interpret the aligned garnet aggregates to direct synkinematic fluid flow, and consequently influence the transport of dissolved chemical components. EBSD analyses reveal that garnet shows a near‐random crystal preferred orientation that testifies no evidence for crystal plasticity. There is, however evidence for minor fracturing, neo‐nucleation and overgrowth. Microprobe chemical analysis revealed that garnet compositions progressively equilibrate to eclogite facies, becoming more almandine‐rich. We interpret these observations as pointing to a mechanical disintegration of the garnet coronas during strain localization, and their rearrangement into individual garnet clusters through a combination of garnet coalescence and overgrowth while the rock was deforming.     

Influence of pore size and geometry on peat unsaturated hydraulic conductivity computed from 3D computed tomography image analysis

In organic soils, hydraulic conductivity is related to the degree of decomposition and soil compression, which reduce the effective pore diameter and consequently restrict water flow. This study investigates how the size distribution and geometry of air‐filled pores control the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity of peat soils using high‐resolution (45 µm) three‐dimensional (3D) X‐ray computed tomography (CT) and digital image processing of four peat sub‐samples from varying depths under a constant soil water pressure head. Pore structure and configuration in peat were found to be irregular, with volume and cross‐sectional area showing fractal behaviour that suggests pores having smaller values of the fractal dimension in deeper, more decomposed peat, have higher tortuosity and lower connectivity, which influences hydraulic conductivity. The image analysis showed that the large reduction of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity with depth is essentially controlled by air‐filled pore hydraulic radius, tortuosity, air‐filled pore density and the fractal dimension due to degree of decomposition and compression of the organic matter. The comparisons between unsaturated hydraulic conductivity computed from the air‐filled pore size and geometric distribution showed satisfactory agreement with direct measurements using the permeameter method. This understanding is important in characterizing peat properties and its heterogeneity for monitoring the progress of complex flow processes at the field scale in peatlands. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Primary cracking of kerogens. Experimenting and modelling C1, C2–C5, C6–C15 and C15+ classes of hydrocarbons formed

Mathematical models of hydrocarbon formation can be used to simulate the natural evolution of different types of organic matter and to make an overall calculation of the amounts of oil and/or gas produced during this evolution. However, such models do not provide any information on the composition of the hydrocarbons formed or on how they evolve during catagenesis.From the kinetic standpoint, the composition of the hydrocarbons formed can be considered to result from the effect of “primary cracking” reactions having a direct effect on kerogen during its evolution as well as from the effect of “secondary cracking” acting on the hydrocarbons formed.This report gives experimental results concerning the “primary cracking” of Types II and III kerogens and their modelling. For this, the hydrocarbons produced have been grouped into four classes (C₁, C₂–C₅, C₆–C₁₅ and C₁₅₊). Experimental data corresponding to these different classes were obtained by the pyrolysis of kerogens with temperature programming of 4°C/min with continuous analysis, during heating, of the amount of hydrocarbons corresponding to each of these classes.The kinetic parameters of the model were optimized on the basis of the results obtained. This model represents the first step in the creation of a more sophisticated mathematical model to be capable of simulating the formation of different hydrocarbon classes during the thermal history of sediments. The second step being the adjustment of the kinetic parameters of “secondary cracking”.     

热流测量中垂向地下水运动干扰的校正方法

本文提出了一种地表热流测量中垂向地下水干扰的校正方法。并以江西萍乡和福建安溪的二个钻孔为例,说明了热流校正的具体过程。由于地下水对流传热的影响,垂向地下水渗透层内温度和热流随深度均呈指数分布。通过对钻孔测温数据的一维垂向Peclet数分析,可以确定渗透层内传导和对流热流分量以及热流的构成,从而得到未受地下水对流干扰的区域背景热流。这一方法不仅适用于渗透率结构均一的介质,也可用于水平层状介质。     

小良试验站三种植被类型地表径流效应的对比研究

本文分析研究了３种植被类型下的地表径流在汇流、洪峰及径流过程上的特征，差异是巨大的。在径流过程上桉树林和裸地的变地剧烈，几乎没有什么调蓄作用，洪峰流量占一次性降水径流量的绝大部分，涨水和退水流量都较小。本文应用灰色系统ＧＭ（２，１）模型，成功地预测了以年和以月为时间尺度的地表径流序列，其预测模型可以用来对这些时间尺度的地表径流进行预报。     

云南蒙自五里冲水库区F1,F2断层新活动年代研究

五里冲水库地处侵蚀山区,缺乏第四纪地层作为研究断层新活动年代的对比标志。本文以F_1、F_2断层带内发育的多期方解石脉和断层泥为研究对象,采用显微构造分析,热释光(TL)测年法和扫描电镜(SEM)分析,石英溶蚀速率测年法,对库区F_1、F_2断层新活动的年代进行综合判定。确认:F_1、F_2断层最后一次明显活动的年代分别为(2.93±0.31)×10~5年和(2.33±0.26)×10~5年以前,为评估五里冲水库构造稳定性,提供了可靠的数据。     

数字成象系统调制传递函数的测定及应用

本文首次探讨了数字成象系统调制传递函数的测定方法及应用。试验结果表明:该测定方法不仅合理可行,而且强有力地证明了MTF的应用价值。即不仅用于象质的评价,而且为成象系统的检定和调试提供了新的技术手段。