The Impact of Mid- and High-Latitude Rossby Wave Activities on the Medium-Range Evolution of the EAP Pattern During the Pre-Rainy Period of South China

Based on the NCEP DOE AMIP II daily reanalysis data (1979{2005), the evolution of the East Asia/Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern during the pre-rainy period of South China is studied on the medium-range time scale. It is found that positive and negative EAP patterns share a similar generation process. In the middle and upper troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanating from the northeast Atlantic or Europe propagate toward East Asia along the Eurasian continent waveguide and finally give rise to the three anomaly centers of the EAP pattern over East Asia. Among the three anomaly centers, the western Pacific subtropical center appears the latest. Rossby wave packets propagate from the high latitude anomaly center toward the mid-latitude and the subtropical ones. The enhancement and maintenance of the subtropical anomaly center is closely associated with the subtropical jet waveguide and the incoming Rossby wave packets from the upstream. In the lower troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanate from the subtropical Asia toward East Asia. Positive and negative EAP patterns could not be regarded as "mirrors" to each other with simply re- versed phase. For the positive pattern, the positive height anomaly center around the Scandinavia Peninsula keeps its strength and position during the mature period, and the Rossby wave packets thus propagate persistently toward East Asia, facilitating a longer mature time of the positive pattern. As for the formation of the negative EAP pattern, however, the incoming Rossby wave energy from the upstream contributes to both the enhancement and southeastward movement of the negative anomaly belt from the Yenisei River to the Bering Strait and the positive anomaly center around Mongolia. At the peak time, the two anomlous circulations are evolved into the Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude anomaly centers of the negative pattern, respectively. The energy dispersion of Rossby wave packets is relatively fast due to the predominant zonal circulation in the extratropics, causing a shorter mature period of the negative pattern. During the pre-rainy period of South China, the prevalence of the EAP pattern signiˉcantly affects the rainfall over the region south of the Yangtze River. The positive (negative) EAP pattern tends to causepositive (negative) precipitation anomalies in that region. This is di?erent from the earlier research findingsbased on monthly mean data.     

塔里木盆地塔中北坡奥陶系微生物碳酸盐岩储层形成机制与评价

微生物岩储层是当前的研究热点之一.通过对塔中北坡微生物岩样品的岩芯以及铸体薄片的观察,发现研究区域的微生物岩储层以裂缝-孔隙型储层为主.对其进行全直径孔渗性检测发现,微生物岩储层具有较好的天然气储集物性.通过对微生物岩的形成机制及特点的分析,结合应力敏感实验和成像测井资料,总结出微生物岩储集空间发育的优势因素.原生白云石的生成可以促进方解石的溶解,而塔中北坡微生物岩发生早成岩岩溶作用,部分地区叠加晚期深成热液改造,提高了储集物性;有机质含量较丰富不仅可以在埋藏成岩阶段生成有机酸造成溶蚀,还能够降低微生物岩的极限强度从而容易在构造作用下发生断裂形成裂缝,因此塔中北坡微生物岩储集空间主要以次生作用为主.通过岩石压缩系数的测定,得出微生物岩的抗压实能力一般,但藻屑骨架对藻孔的保护有利,抗压实能力最强的是受到热液作用而硅化的微生物岩,其次是白云石化微生物岩.     

完全Q矢量的引入及其诊断分析

参照准地转Q矢量推导，考虑天气系统发展的主要热力强迫因子－非绝热加热作用，引出考虑非绝热效应的完全Q矢量的概念，并应用于实例分析。结果表明，完全Q矢量能较清楚地揭示暴雨天气系统的演变；考虑了湿过程的完全Q矢量在暴雨的诊断过程中显示了更大的优越性；定性而言，完全Q矢量散度的辐合中心或辐合线、散度场和锋生函数场有助于确定暴雨的落区，暴雨区正好落在低层完全Q矢量散度场辐合中心和锋生函数场正值中心之间；定量而言，低层完全Q矢量散度场辐合中心和锋生函数场正值中心大小对暴雨强度有显著的指示作用。因而在暴雨的诊断和预报过程中完全Q矢量散度和锋生函数是两个重要的参数。     

三工河流域新老绿洲发育度的比较

绿洲是干旱区最重要的景观单元之一。人工绿洲是在干旱条件下经长期人类活动改造而形成的特殊景观。随着人类对绿洲水土资源开发利用程度的不断加强,绿洲呈现出不同的发展阶段。从天然绿洲到人工绿洲,是人类适应和改造干旱区自然环境的历程。在这一人地相互作用的过程中,绿洲显示出明显的发育演化特征。从多学科综合的角度,提出绿洲发育度的概念,并从灌溉体系的建设状况、水资源的利用水平、植被与生态建设、农业发展程度、社会经济水平和绿洲景观结构等7个方面提出了绿洲发育度的评价指标体系,以天山北坡2个人工绿洲为例,从空间上定量比较2个绿洲的发育程度,其中阜康市绿洲发育度高于222团绿洲(阜北农场)。     

利用人工鱼群算法优化高斯过程模型及应用分析

基于高斯过程利用传统共轭梯度法搜索超参数,存在对初始值依赖性强、获得局部最优解的不足。本文采用人工鱼群算法对超参数进行智能寻优,建立了基于人工鱼群算法的高斯过程模型对变形体形变进行预测分析。通过隧道和基坑两个工程实例计算比对分析,NN、SE和RQ 3种核函数中NN核函数的预测效果最好,平均相对误差分别为0.69%和1.06%。结果表明超参数优化模型的预测精度得到了较大的提高,改善了高斯过程算法本身存在的超参数求解方面的不足,效果明显。     

Small-scale fisheries reform: Expectations,hopes and dreams of “a better life for all”

This article follows the transformation process in the fishing industry with specific reference to the emergence of a limited commercial sector. In the policy domain, this sector was accommodated through a “one size fits all approach” to access rights, requiring it to compete with the large-scale commercial sector for the same resources. The strategies and actions of successful and unsuccessful applicants in four fishing communities in South Africa are examined. The paper identifies the key challenges facing the limited commercial sector as being the lack of skills to complete the application process, start up capital or credit, organisation and financial and business acumen. It highlights the disjuncture between the Marine Living Resources Act's stated aims of sustainability, equity and stability and the realities of implementation at a grassroots level.     

西藏扎西康多金属矿床成矿过程中的流体性质演化初探

扎西康铅锌银锑多金属矿床是北喜马拉雅成矿带中重要的铅锌锑多金属矿床,对其成矿过程的研究对其深部资源预测具有重要的指导意义。本文通过野外地质调查结合成矿流体包裹体研究,获得该矿床成矿前硅化、成矿早期铁锰碳酸盐化、中早期毒砂黄铁矿化、中期含铅锌硅化、晚期含锑硅化和成矿后硅化方解石化的流体温度分别为297、280、264、251、215~247和183~237℃,盐度分别为17.80%、8.39%、6.50%、5.98%、2.75%-5.29%和4.28%Na Cleq(wt)。研究表明,成矿流体为顺断裂运移的具有显著岩浆贡献的中高温、中等盐度、较高硫逸度含CO2、CH4和N2的热液与中温低盐度下渗大气降水在断裂中混合的产物。两者的混合改变了流体温度、盐度和硫逸度等进而沉淀金属矿物形成矿体。锑矿化温度低于铅锌矿化温度,下部~247℃锑矿化的发现暗示深部有进一步找矿的空间。     

Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.     

近60年洞庭湖泊形态与水沙过程的互动响应

以历史文献、图件及1951～2009年长系水沙等资料为依据,对比分析洞庭湖形态与水沙过程的互动响应,结果表明：由于湖泊形态与水沙过程存在着相互作用的关系,近60年间,水沙过程以多种形式改变湖泊形态特征值,如湖盆结构破碎、解体,水深变浅以及湖面﹑湖容依次减少1840km2及130×108 m3;同时湖泊形态特征值改变也引起水沙特性变异,在1951～2002年间湖盆蓄水量呈明显的增减波动,但同流量下汛期水位普遍抬高1.2～1.90m,西﹑南﹑东洞庭湖水位变幅依次增大1.61m、1.39m和1.35m,各主要水文站前5位最高洪水位排序的年份均出现在湖面积（容积）历史最低值,泥沙淤积率为70%以上;2003年6月三峡水库蓄水及＂退田还湖＂后,高、中水位下湖盆调蓄量有所减少,城陵矶丰、枯水位分别降低1.12m及0.35m,西湖区与东南湖区的泥沙输出比均呈增大趋势,泥沙淤积率减至35.9%。其互动响应机制,可概化为泥沙淤积循环→湖盆结构破碎、解体,湖面湖容缩小→水沙特性异变→改变湖泊形态→水沙特性变异的互动响应动态演进模式。     

厦门湾城市化过程的人口资源环境与发展调控

首先剖析城市化过程PRED 演变的“五律协同”原理和PRED 演变轨迹的数学概念模型, 在此基础上提出海湾地区城市化过程PRED 演变的“六位一体”宏观调控模型及其指标体系和灰度评估模型; 然后从规划的角度设计海湾地区“六位一体”的调控方案框架, 通过 “六位一体”指标的评估和调控, 确保海湾地区PRED 遵循“五律协同” 原理有序协调地演 进; 最后以厦门海湾为例。厦门城市已进入较高级的发展阶段, 第一产业已基本为第二、第 三产业所替代, 海湾资源的开发利用相当密集, 湾内有中华白海豚、文昌鱼等海洋珍稀物种, 还有以红树林为代表的海洋生态湿地; 经分析评估, 其城市化过程PRED 演变“六位一体” 的灰度值为75.725; 保持PRED 协调演进应加强调控的主要方面是: 保护重要的生态源和海陆之间的生态廊道、防止深水港口岸段和航道的淤积、“控源导流”缩减陆源污染、塑造海湾特色景观和岛链景观、保持港口航运业和滨海旅游业的主导作用并选择性地发展临海工业和海洋新兴产业等。