1990-2019年新疆不同等级风灾变化特征

风灾对新疆农牧业生产造成极大危害。本研究以风灾造成的倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、死亡人数、农作物受灾面积、损坏大棚数、牲畜死亡数作为6大灾情要素,运用比值权重和无量纲化线性求和方法构建表达风灾事件强弱的灾损指数,并采用百分位数法将风灾事件的强度划分为一般（1级）、较重（2级）、严重（3级）、特重（4级）4个等级。根据灾损指数和灾害等级,研究新疆风灾的时空变化特征。结果表明：新疆风灾集中于4—5月,南疆多于北疆,吐鲁番盆地和塔里木盆地北部是风灾的多发区和重发区;近30年风灾年出现次数呈显著的线性增加趋势,年灾损指数没有表现出线性增加或减少的变化趋势,其中1～4级风灾的年际变化具有明显的差异性;引发1～4级风灾的极大风速阈值分别为12.9、13.7、14.1、15.0 m〖DK〗·s-1;超过12.9 m〖DK〗·s-1极大风速出现日数逐年增多,加之农牧业生产快速发展,导致风灾年出现次数不断增加。     

基于MODIS数据的吐鲁番盆地2001—2017年植被变化及水热组合影响分析

中国西北干旱地区的气候变化及其对植被的影响一直备受关注。以地形特殊的吐鲁番盆地为研究对象,利用实测气象站点数据、再分析气象格点数据以及MODIS卫星遥感植被指数,采用趋势检验、线性回归、偏相关分析等方法,探究了该地区2001—2017年间的植被变化及其与水热组合特征之间的关系。结果表明:(1)吐鲁番盆地降水量整体没有显著变化,但北部山区降水增长较多,气温总体呈显著上升趋势,尤其是盆地底部中心区域增温较大。(2)全区域植被指数(NDVI)总体呈极显著上升趋势,山区及中心区域NDVI增长率较大。(3)受水汽来源和日照时长的影响,吐鲁番盆地周边山区高程3 000 m左右NDVI值最高,山区植被最好的坡向是西北坡。(4)吐鲁番盆地水热组合复杂,水分条件是大部分地区植被生长的主要限制因素,降水与NDVI有较好的正相关,在山区和荒漠区热量增加不利于植被生长,但中心区域受地下水和人类活动影响,水分的供给相对稳定,热量增加利于植被生长。     

黑河流域乡镇初始水权分配研究 ——以甘州区为例

乡镇水权分配是乡镇水资源承载力研究的前提,是乡镇落实最严格的水资源管理和水权交易制度的基础,为新时期乡村振兴与美丽乡村建设提供物质保障.以最严格水资源管理制度确定的甘州区用水总量控制目标为可分配水权总量,在优先保障生活和生态基本用水基础上,选取2017年为规划水平年,采用人口、面积、产值单指标和混合分配模式,以及综合指...     

Evaluating simulated daily discharge for operational hydrological drought monitoring in the Global Drought Observatory (GDO)

ABSTRACT

Hydrological drought is currently underrepresented in global monitoring systems, mainly due the shortage of near real-time estimates of river discharge at the global scale. In this study, the outputs of the Lisflood model are used to define a low-flow drought index, which shows a good correspondence with long-term records of the Global Runoff Data Centre in the period 1980–2014, as well as with verified information from the literature on six major drought events (covering different regions and watershed sizes). In contrast, the near real-time simulation (from 2015 onward) provides temporally inconsistent estimates over about 20% of the modelled cells (mostly over South America and Central Africa), even if reasonable results are obtained over other regions, as confirmed by intercomparison with the operational outcomes of the European Drought Observatory for the 2018 drought. In spite of the highlighted limitations, valuable information for operational drought monitoring can be retrieved from these simulations.     

三种干旱指数在山西省干旱分析中的比较

利用1957-2003年山西省30个测站逐月、逐年降水量、平均气温资料、降水距平百分率、帕尔默指数和Z指数等三种干旱指数的计算方法和判定标准,分别在山西省北部、中部、南部和全省的旱涝状况进行判定的基础上,对三种干旱指数的判定结果进行了比较和相关分析。结果表明：（1）从旱涝年发生频次来看,降水距平百分率判别干旱的趋势可信...     

INTERNATIONAL HYDROLOGICAL DECADE / WORKING GROUP ON “THE INFLUENCE OF MAN ON THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE”

Abstract

Floods, as extreme hydrological phenomena, can be described by more than one correlated characteristic, such as peak, volume and duration. These characteristics should be jointly considered since they are generally not independent. For an ungauged site, univariate regional flood frequency analysis (FA) provides a limited assessment of flood events. A recent study proposed a procedure for regional FA in a multivariate framework. This procedure represents a multivariate version of the index-flood model and is based on copulas and multivariate quantiles. The performance of the proposed procedure was evaluated by simulation. However, the model was not tested on a real-world case study data. In the present paper, practical aspects are investigated jointly for flood peak (Q) and volume (V) of a dataset from the Côte-Nord region in the province of Quebec, Canada. The application of the proposed procedure requires the identification of the appropriate marginal distribution, the estimation of the index flood and the selection of an appropriate copula. The results of the case study show that the regional bivariate FA procedure performed well. This performance depends strongly on the performance of the two univariate models and, more specifically, the univariate model of Q. The results show also the impact of the homogeneity of the region on the performance of the univariate and bivariate models.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

The Application of ARGO Data to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Operational System of NCC

1. Introduction It is well-known that the state of ocean plays very important role in the climate change. But there is a paucity of the ocean observation data. The data distri- bution in the space, time and different components is very inhomogeneous, even in some areas, there are no any observation data. Hence, it brings some diffcul- ties to the scientists to study many problems relevant to ocean. This situation has been being changed since ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanogra-…     

关于干旱监测评估指标的一种新探讨

从有效降水过程观点入手,针对降水过程次数、降水过程总量,尤其是降水过程的时间分布结构和效能,提出了一种新的干旱指数式。该结果在干旱研究分析、监测评估业务和决策服务中都有实用意义。     

变形测量异常数据处理中小波变换最佳级数的确定

综合分析数据去噪效果的4个分项评价指标,即数据的均方根差变化量、互相关系数、信噪比及平滑度,将各分项评价指标归化到0,1后相加得到总体评价指标,将总体评价指标最大值所对应的级数定义为小波分解与重构的最佳级数。模拟和实测两个算例验证了此方法的有效性。     

相干变化指数法在震害快速评估中的应用

合成孔径雷达(SAR)具有全天候全天时的特点,为快速展开地震救援,评估震害损失提供了重要的数据支持。本文基于汶川震中东南平原地区的ENVISATASAR影像,利用相位干涉方法处理得到相干变化指数图像,对6个评估区域的像元相干变化指数进行统计分析,以相干变化指数平均值作为区分建筑物基本完好与损毁的阈值,并与实地调查结果相比,精度基本达到70%。验证干涉相干变化指数法对震害快速评估有效的同时,也为震区提供震害救援的依据。