冬小麦晚霜冻害时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律分析

冬小麦晚霜冻害主要发生在中国的黄淮区域,河南占黄淮区域面积较大,是中国小麦的主要产地,又是晚霜冻害的重发区,因此文章以河南为例,从构成晚霜冻害的最低温度和小麦发育期两个因素出发,提出了晚霜冻害指数构建方法,使晚霜冻害指标定量化,并从多年数据库中计算出逐年晚霜冻害发生强度和发生天数.由于小麦发育期观测资料序列较短,影响了大尺度小麦晚霜冻害变化规律的分析,因而提出了冬小麦发育期资料推算方法;对计算出的近50年晚霜冻害资料进行EOF分析和Morlet小波分析,以发现晚霜冻害的时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律.结果表明:冬小麦晚霜冻害发生频率较高,高发区频率超过40%,且在20世纪70-90年代有增多的趋势;发生强度和天数变化趋势基本相似,具有发生强度较重区对应着发生天数较多区的趋势,且前者对小麦产量的影响大于后者;晚霜冻害发生强度的重发区分布在豫东南和豫西南,轻发区主要分布在淮河以南及豫西部分地区,其中第1模态分布型存在16年、第2模态分布型存在准2年的多时间尺度变化规律;发生天数的多发区主要分布在豫北北部和豫西南边界,少发区在豫东北及豫西南中部,其中第1模态分布型存在着准4年、第2模态分布型存在准3年和准6-7年的周期.     

干旱半干旱区太阳辐射特征

Climatic characteristics of broadband solar radiation （Rs） in Chinese arid and semi-arid areas are reported in this study. The annual average daily Rs in the arid and semi-arid areas is 16.3 ±5.77 and 15.3 ± 5.16 MJ m^-2 d^-1, respectively. The highest value （17.2 ± 5.84 MJ m^-2 d^-1） appears in an arid area at Linze. The lowest value appears in the semi-arid area of Ansai. Pronounced seasonal variation of Rs is observed with the highest value in summer and the lowest in winter. The clearness index showed similar seasonal pattern at most sites, with the minimum observed in the summer and the highest values in winter at both arid and semi-arid areas. The seasonal variation of the ratio of Rs to its extraterrestrial value Kt in the arid area is more significant than that observed in the semi-arid region, and it is caused by the different range of variation of water vapor between arid and semi-arid areas. The seasonal fluctuations in Rs and Kt are mainly controlled by the water vapor content in these areas. The aerosol particles have significant influence on Rs and Kt at stations with higher aerosol burden.     

Forecasting the western Pacific subtropical high index during typhoon activity using a hybrid deep learning model

Seasonal location and intensity changes in the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) are important factors dominating the synoptic weather and the distribution and magnitude of precipitation in the rain belt over East Asia. Therefore, this article delves into the forecast of the western Pacific subtropical high index during typhoon activity by adopting a hybrid deep learning model. Firstly, the predictors, which are the inputs of the model, are analysed based on three characteristics: the first...     

Changeable hydrothermal media as potential cradle of life on a planet

According to the elaborated systemic concept, a prebiotic microsystem has a chance to be transformed into primary living unit (probiont) only under nonequilibrium oscillating conditions. This transition proceeds through three successive kinds of transformations. First, a prebiotic microsystem must acquire the specific critical properties being at the unstable state of the bifurcate transition. Then it should be relatively stabilized due to balanced oscillations between the initial and the forward states (there appears the paradoxical state of ‘stabilized instability’). The decisive transformation to the living state is connected with the inversion of the ratio of ‘free energy to entropy contribution’ when the free energy input in the microsystem becomes higher than the entropy input. Changeable nonequilibrium conditions are most typical to hydrothermal systems in comparison with other aqueous media of the Earth. In this context the hydrothermal medium seems very suitable to be considered as a potential cradle of life on a planet. To characterize a scale of the thermodynamic and physico-chemical fluctuations some hydrothermal systems in Kamchatka peninsula were explored. The period of the pressure microoscillations in Mutnovsky and Pauzhetsky hydrothermal systems range from 10 to 30 min, and the amplitude is 0.2-0.7 bar. From time to time the amplitude of the fluctuations significantly rises due to spontaneous increase of activity of the nearest volcanoes. Similar results were obtained during the exploration of thermodynamic and chemical fluctuations in Mura hydrothermal field in Slovenia: the period of the water pressure oscillations is 60-70 min, and the average amplitude about 0.5 bar. Temperature and some chemical parameters oscillate in this field with the same period. These data can be used to conduct advanced laboratory experiments on prebiotic organic synthesis under nonequilibrium oscillating conditions. Some universal aspects of this concept may allow us to better understand the origin-of-life process in the Universe.     

Assessing probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction at a given site in a given exposure time using CPTU

This paper is a follow-up to a previous paper on the subject of liquefaction potential index (LPI), a parameter that is often used to characterize the potential for surface manifestation of liquefaction at a given site subjected to a given shaking level (represented by a pair of peak ground surface acceleration a_max and moment magnitude M_w). In the previous paper by Juang and his coworkers, the LPI was re-calibrated for a piezocone penetration test (CPTU) model, and a simplified model based on LPI was created for computing the conditional probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction (P_G). In this paper, the model for this conditional probability P_G is extended into a complete framework for assessing the probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction in a given exposure time at a given site subjected to all possible ground motions at all seismic hazard levels. This new framework is formulated and demonstrated with an example site in 10 different seismic regions in the United States.     

Effect of flying altitude and pulse repetition frequency on laser scanner penetration rate for digital elevation model generation in a tropical forest

In tropical forests, the penetration ability of airborne laser scanning (ALS) may be limited because of highly dense vegetation cover. However, in the typical planning of ALS surveys, the ability of laser pulses to penetrate forests is not considered. Nine round-trip flight lines covering the area of a tropical forest on the northeast side of the Tsengwen Reservoir in Taiwan were designed in this study. Five flight lines flew at altitudes of 1.525, 1.830, 2.135, 2.440, and 2.745 km, and the other four had pulse repetition frequencies (PRFs) of 100, 150, 200, and 250 kHz. The laser penetration index (LPI) is a quantitative index measuring the penetration ability of the ALS and consists of the ratio of the number of laser pulses reaching the forest floor to the total number of laser pulses. The LPI was used to represent the laser penetration rate and investigate the influence of flying altitude and PRF on the LPI. The results showed that as the flying altitude decreased by 1 km, the average LPI increased by 10%, and as the PRF decreased by 50 kHz, the average LPI increased by 2%. The effect of the LPI on digital elevation models (DEMs) was confirmed by visual images obtained by DEMs at five altitudes. The DEM obtained at an altitude of 2.745 km was coarsely textured, whereas that obtained at an altitude of 1.525 km was finely textured. The in-situ height data obtained from the electronic Global Navigation Satellite System (eGNSS) were compared with the data of the ALS-generated DEMs. The results indicated that when the LPI ≥60%, the height difference between the in situ data and DEM data was not prominent. However, when the LPI <60%, the ALS-derived DEM could be higher or lower than the in-situ height; the largest difference between the two was 1.7 m. The LPI of a forest should be considered for ALS survey planning, especially when consistent DEM precision for large tropical forest areas is paramount.     

Turbidity-discharge hysteresis in a meso-scale catchment: The importance of intermediate scale events

In-situ sensors for riverine water quality monitoring are a powerful tool to describe temporal variations when efficient and informative analyses are applied to the large quantities of data collected. Concentration-discharge hysteresis patterns observed during storm events give insights into headwater catchment processes. However, the applicability of this approach to larger catchments is less well known. Here, we evaluate the potential for high-frequency turbidity-discharge (Q) hysteresis patterns to give insights into processes operating in a meso-scale (722 km²) northern mixed land use catchment. As existing event identification methods did not work, we developed a new, objective method based on hydrograph characteristics and identified 76 events for further analysis. Qualitative event analysis identified three recurring patterns. Events with low mean Q (≤ 2 m³/s) often showed short-term, quasi-periodic turbidity variation, to a large extent disconnected from Q variation. High max Q events (≥15 m³/s) were often associated with spring flood or snowmelt, and showed a disconnection between turbidity and Q. Intermediate Q events (mean Q: 2–11 m³/s) were the most informative when applying hysteresis indexes, since changes in turbidity and Q were actually connected. Hysteresis indexes could be calculated on a subset of 60 events, which showed heterogeneous responses: 38% had a clockwise response, 12% anticlockwise, 12% figure eight (clockwise–anticlockwise), 10% reverse figure eight (anticlockwise–clockwise) and 28% showed a complex response. Clockwise hysteresis responses were associated with the wetter winter and spring seasons. Generally, changes in Q and turbidity were small during anticlockwise hysteresis events. Precipitation often influenced figure-eight patterns, while complex patterns often occurred during summer low flows. Analysis of intermediate Q events can improve process understanding of meso-scale catchments and possibly aid in choosing appropriate management actions for targeting a specific observed pattern.     

Multiple sulfur isotope chemostratigraphy across the Permian–Triassic boundary at Chaotian,China: Implications for a shoaling model of toxic deep-waters

Previous studies on multiple sulfur isotopes (³²S, ³³S, and ³⁴S) in sedimentary pyrite at the end-Permian suggested a shoaling of anoxic/sulfidic deep-water contributing to the extinction. This scenario is based on an assumption that the sedimentary sulfur cycle was largely controlled by benthos activity, though a stratigraphic correlation between the sulfur records and ichnofabrics of the sediments at the end-Permian has not yet been examined. We report the multiple sulfur isotopic composition of pyrite in the Permian–Triassic boundary interval at Chaotian, South China. Our data can be generally explained by a mixing of sulfur in sulfide from two different sources: one produced via sulfate reduction in an open system with respect to sulfate and the other produced in a closed system. In particular, the former with the substantially low δ³⁴S (<−40 ‰) and high ∆³³S (up to +0.100 ‰) values was likely produced via water-mass sulfate reduction or via sulfate reduction in oxic sediments with common burrows. The frequent occurrence of small pyrite framboids (mostly <5 μm in diameter) in the Lopingian (Late Permian) Dalong Formation of deep-water facies supports the enhanced water-mass sulfate reduction in an anoxic deep-water mass. The negative ∆³³S values are observed only in the oxic limestones, and no substantial ∆³³S change is observed across the extinction horizon despite of the disappearance of bioturbation. Our results are apparently inconsistent with the previous shoaling model. We expand the model and infer that, when the deep-water was sulfidic and its shoaling rate was high, a substantial amount of hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) was supplied onto the shelf via the shoaling; that resulted in the positive ∆³³S value of the bulk sediments. The observed ∆³³S variation on a global scale suggests a substantial variation in H₂S concentration and/or in upwelling rate of shoaling deep-waters during the Permian–Triassic transition.     

我国高原干旱气候区作物种植区划综合指标体系研究

在高原地区建立以气象、地理位置、经济效益等不同指标类型和权重系数的干旱气候作物生态适生种植区划综合指标体系,并以定量标准进行5级作物生态适生种植区划等级的划分。该综合指标体系具有实践性、经验性、客观性和应用性的特点。     

主成分分析法在地区综合实力评价中的应用

地区综合实力反映一个地区社会经济系统的发展水平。主成分分析法能够在保证原始数据信息损失最小的情况下,以少数的综合变量取代原有的多维变量,使数据结构大为简化,并且客观地确定权数,避免了主观随意性．因而是地区综合实力评价的一种有效方法。通过主成分分析,可以全方位地了解各个地区社会经济系统的发展水平及其差距。