滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险评估研究

建立了一套基于非结构三角网、适用于滨海新区的高分辨率风暴潮漫滩数值模式,在陆地区域分辨率达到50~80 m,对两次典型的温带风暴潮进行模拟得到满意结果。计算了塘沽站19 a平均天文高潮值并根据对历史天气过程的分析,选取制定了4个强度的天气系统,而后模拟得到不同强度下滨海新区的温带风暴潮最大淹没范围。综合考虑风暴潮淹没风险与承灾体脆弱性制作出滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险图。结果表明:大部分地区都存在风暴潮灾害风险,沿海地区风险大于内陆,其中天津新港、临港工业区、海河北岸地区、大港地区南部的灾害风险最大。     

A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina

A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge.     

Developing a building policy for the erosion zone: Solutions to some key (Dutch) questions

In those coastal communities where the most seaward strip of mainland consists of dunes, these dunes often serve as a flexible sea defence. In addition, this strip offers large potential for housing and commercial enterprises. Unfortunately, due to severe storm surges part of this strip (the erosion zone) is subject to erosion, and as a result of which any buildings or infrastructure located here, are destroyed. Therefore, as we will illustrate in this paper, a building policy for this zone should reflect a compromise between two opposite interests: exploitation of the existing potential and, prevention of an unacceptable high risk due to erosion. Accordingly, the authors have developed a framework for such a building policy on the basis of which the desirability of various different types of investments and the location within the erosion zone of such investments can be determined. The examples that are used to illustrate this framework in this paper are limited to experiences in The Netherlands as relevant data and experiences are available and relatively easy accessible here. Nevertheless, the approach as is described is generic and applicable worldwide suggesting that the discovered unused potential for exploitation is not just limited to The Netherlands.     

闸坡站风暴潮增水与热带气旋登陆点及路径的关系

将1992～2006年15a间影响和登陆闸坡站的热带气旋按照登陆点和移动路径进行分类．研究各类热带气旋在闸坡站引起的风暴潮增水峰值的出现时间与热带气旋登陆点及移动路径的关系,定性分析热带气旋风场结构对风暴潮增水的影响并经过2007年至今风暴潮增水预报过程中的实例检验．结果表明：闸坡站的增水类型与热带气旋的登陆地点和路径关系密切．在闸坡站登陆的东北行热带气旋引起的风暴潮增水多出现在登陆前,其他路径则出现在登陆时或登陆后;在闸坡以西登陆的热带气旋引起的风暴潮增水峰值一般发生在登陆时或登陆后1h以内;在闸坡站以东登陆的热带气旋引起的风暴潮增水峰值一般发生在登陆前10h以上;而其他类型的热带气旋引起的风暴潮增水由于个例较少规律尚不明显．     

南麂海域台风影响过程中的波浪特征

根据１９８３－１９８９年南麂海洋站在台风影响过程中的实测风和浪资料，分析了该海域的波浪特征。结果表明，这个海域的台风波浪通常是混合浪，在台风影响过程中出现的最大值波高，既有较大波陡的风浪，也有波陡较小的清浪；各向波高的均值变化不大，各向最大波高却有较大幅度的差距；本区的台风浪以４级波高占优，风浪以ＮＮＥ向、涌浪以Ｅ向为常浪向；波高为４级的风浪和涌浪，其周期分别在４．０－４．９Ｓ和７．０－７．９Ｓ之     

风暴对滨海湿地潮沟水沙输运的影响——以长江口崇明东滩为例

为了探知风暴事件对滨海湿地潮沟水沙输运的影响,分别于平静天气和风暴天气(“摩羯”和“温比亚”台风)条件下,在崇明东滩一典型潮沟进行了现场水沙数据观测。结果表明：台风期间近岸平均风速较平静天气增大3~4倍,有效波高增大7~15倍,盐沼前缘光滩和潮沟遭受强烈侵蚀,潮滩表层沉积物粗化1~2.1倍,水体悬沙浓度增大3~11倍,潮沟潮周期单宽泥沙输运通量增大4~33倍, 单宽泥沙净输沙量增大8~17倍。风暴天气下,潮沟水沙输运呈现“大进大出”的特点,在盐沼潮滩内受盐沼植被消波、缓流和捕沙作用下,潮周期内单宽泥沙净通量指向盐沼潮滩,促进了盐沼滩内部泥沙的淤积。     

浙江朱家尖岛东沙海滩对热带风暴“娜基莉”的响应及风暴后的恢复

海滩对风暴的响应及风暴后海滩的恢复过程一直以来都是国内外海滩研究的热点。本文通过对浙江舟山市朱家尖岛东沙海滩地形地貌的现场调查,对比分析了热带风暴"娜基莉"影响下东沙海滩剖面的蚀积变化,探讨了海滩在热带风暴发生后的恢复情况。结果表明,在"娜基莉"影响期间,因风暴浪为向岸浪,东沙海滩几乎遭受全线侵蚀,12个剖面单宽侵蚀总量为73.46 m3/m,其中海滩直线段较两个遮蔽段侵蚀显著。由于海滩在风暴前进方向的左侧,且"娜基莉"距东沙较远,使得东沙海滩普遍侵蚀但强度较小。东沙海滩在热带风暴后的恢复过程中,不同部位的地貌调整和冲淤变化不同,下岬角遮蔽段基本趋于稳定,直线段和上岬角遮蔽段在恢复过程中因受海滩季节性调整的影响呈现持续侵蚀。     

波浪溢流作用下海堤内坡高性能加筋草皮护坡防侵蚀特征研究

基于1∶1的大型水槽试验结果,分析了波浪溢流过程中位于海堤内坡的高性能加筋草皮护面的侵蚀特征。试验观察表明试验期间有一定土壤的损失,但护坡无明显的破坏;土面高度测量表明,当土壤流失发展到一定深度后,如果水动力强度变化不大,侵蚀趋于逐渐停止,这种现象称为侵蚀上限;结合试验现象对侵蚀上限进行了初步解释,并讨论了侵蚀上限达到前的侵蚀速率特征;植株密度监测表明,试验期间的草茎密度基本不变,草叶密度在开始几次试验期间持续减小,而后达到一个稳定值,这对于海堤的可持续防护有重要意义。研究成果能够为波浪溢流期间海堤内坡防御的相关研究和工程措施提供参考依据。     

长江水下三角洲沉积物柱状样重金属垂向分布特征

对长江水下三角洲3个沉积物柱状样进行粒度分析、²¹⁰Pb测年,并测定其中Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn等重金属元素和Al等常量元素的含量,得到了沉积物粒度、粘土含量、重金属含量的垂向分布曲线和沉积物测年数据。通过相关分析来研究沉积物中的Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn等重金属、粒度、Al相互之间的关系;以Al为参照元素对这4种重金属进行归一化处理,分析其归一化前后的垂向分布特征。结果表明,Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn 4种重金属元素在此区域的地球化学行为相似,其分布受细颗粒沉积物的吸附和胶体的絮凝作用共同控制;近一二十年来,该区域的Cr、Cu、Pb含量并没有显著增加,Zn有轻微污染。此外,CJ19柱中Cu存在异常峰值,可能是特大风暴潮事件对研究区浅水区底质沉积物中重金属的分布造成的影响。     

连云港核电站厂址海域1939年风暴潮水位的确定

在新建滨海工程时往往遇到历史上的最高潮位资料不详,不满足设计计算的需求,这就需要通过现场调查找到当年大潮的蛛丝马迹来反算当年的潮高,而这一方法又往往由于高潮发生的年代久远,证据混乱,互相矛盾而造成结论不可信。用数学手段对工程海域历史上的大潮过程进行模拟,从而确认调查结论的可信程度是解决上述问题的一个有效的手段。本文是一个成功运用上述方法确定历史最高水位实例。