Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用

Local Modeling方法是一种动力系统预测方法，将其应用于河西内陆区黑河干流出山口莺落峡水文站月平均流量的中长期预测预报，取得了较为理想的成果。预测试验的结果表明，该预测模型有较高计算精度，尤其适用于非主汛期各月的月平均流量的预测；对于主汛期6～9月的月平均流量的预测，在考虑前期来水与预见期内降水的影响后，亦可获到较为理想的预测结果。可以认为，该方法的预报精度达到了水文情报预报规范的要求，Local Modeling方法的应用，将为西北干旱地区河川径流的中长期预报提供了一个新的途径。     

基于EM算法和单幅雷达图像阴影的控制点坡度校正

对在我国现有的条件下进行控制点坡度校正的必要性进行了阐述，并分析了EM算法。根据EM算法以及基于区域增长的余弦散射模型建立了控制点坡度校正模型，并用河北省张北地区的雷达影像进行了实验，取得了较高的精度初值。     

川滇地区单断裂强震区与多断裂强震区

以《全国小震目录》(1965年1月1日～2002年lO月31日)和《四川地震台网快报目录》(2002年11月1日～2003年9月30日)为基础资料，研究了川滇地区地震活动性发展变化的主要特征，并提出“单断裂强震区”和“多断裂强震区”概念。发现川滇地区主要单断裂强震区在发生一些强震之后，已经陆续进入地震平静时段，近期发生强震的能力明显减弱。与此同时，“滇西南”、“龙陵-腾冲”、“丽江-武定”地区分别在较短时段内发生多次强震，表明这几个多断裂强震区陆续进入活跃时段，成为1984年以来川滇地区的地震主体活动区域。多断裂强震区具有区内中小断裂汇集、地质构造复杂、地震活跃时段多次出现、在同一活跃时段内又具有活跃小段与小段间距的小段组合形式等特征。对已有的和可能新生的多断裂强震区进行早期判定，以及对活跃时段、小段组合进行动态跟踪，对于川滇地区地震预报具有重要意义。     

Effects of spatially structured vegetation patterns on hillslope erosion in a semiarid Mediterranean environment: a simulation study

A general trend of decreasing soil loss rates with increasing vegetation cover fraction is widely accepted. Field observations and experimental work, however, show that the form of the cover‐erosion function can vary considerably, in particular for low cover conditions that prevail on arid and semiarid hillslopes. In this paper the structured spatial distribution of the vegetation cover and associated soil attributes is proposed as one of the possible causes of variation in cover–erosion relationships, in particular in dryland environments where patchy vegetation covers are common. A simulation approach was used to test the hypothesis that hillslope discharge and soil loss could be affected by variation in the spatial correlation structure of coupled vegetation cover and soil patterns alone. The Limburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM) was parameterized and verified for a small catchment with discontinuous vegetation cover at Rambla Honda, SE Spain. Using the same parameter sets LISEM was subsequently used to simulate water and sediment fluxes on 1 ha hypothetical hillslopes with simulated spatial distributions of vegetation and soil parameters. Storms of constant rainfall intensity in the range of 30–70 mm h^?1 and 10–30 min duration were applied. To quantify the effect of the spatial correlation structure of the vegetation and soil patterns, predicted discharge and soil loss rates from hillslopes with spatially structured distributions of vegetation and soil parameters were compared with those from hillslopes with spatially uniform distributions. The results showed that the spatial organization of bare and vegetated surfaces alone can have a substantial impact on predicted storm discharge and erosion. In general, water and sediment yields from hillslopes with spatially structured distributions of vegetation and soil parameters were greater than from identical hillslopes with spatially uniform distributions. Within a storm the effect of spatially structured vegetation and soil patterns was observed to be highly dynamic, and to depend on rainfall intensity and slope gradient. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国地震海浪初步分析

总结了我国地震海浪的25次记录,在做初步分析后认为我国的地震海浪多由近海海洋地震引起,其多发地区为渤海沿岸与东南沿海一带.随着对沿海地区开发的深入,这类记载逐渐增多,受灾程度加大.另外分析了在社会历史变迁中,国家对海洋的开发政策、沿海开发下城市近海地理位置、沿海港口及海洋贸易的规模与地震海浪受灾程度之间的关系.     

Wavelet analysis and interpretation of gravity data in Sichuan-Yunnan region, China

Introduction Sichuan-Yunnan region, located in the east margin of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetean) Plateau, is a transitional zone between the rapidly upheaving Tibetean Plateau and relatively steady Yangtze Platform. Under the pressure exerted by the northward movement of Indian Plate, Sichuan-Yunnan region has been undergone strong deformation and regmagenesis, becoming one of the regions with the most intensive seismicity in the world. The research on the tectonics and seismicity there is alw…     

A study on the focal parameters of Shidian M =5.9 earthquake sequences in 2001

On the basis of about 300 earthquake wave forms observed in the Shidian M _S=5.9 sequences on April 12, 2001 recorded in Kunming Digital Seismic Network, the spectra of shear wave have been used to estimate the focal parameters of these earthquake sequences. The results show that within the magnitude range of 1.5–5.3, the seismic moments are 10¹⁰–10¹⁶ N·m, the corner frequencies are 0.2–0.8 Hz, radii of the focal rupture are 200–2 500 m and the stress drops are 0.1×10⁵–20×10⁵Pa. Through the statistical analyses of variation of corner frequency f _c and stress drop Δσ with time, it is discovered that the average corner frequency of the foreshock sequences is obviously lower than that of the aftershock sequences. Contrarily, the average stress drops Δσ of the foreshock sequences are clearly higher than that of the aftershocks. It is considered that these variation characteristics of average corner frequency and stress drops before and after the main shock have index significance to the precursory information before a strong earthquake. The higher stress drops for the foreshock sequences show that the higher shear stresses have been stored in the area of main shock. After the main shock, most of the stresses have been released, so the aftershock sequences show a rupture process of lower stresses. Foundation item: Scientific and Technological Key Project of Yunnan Province (2001NG46)     

Energetic Particles Observed in the CUSP Region During a Storm Recovery Phase

In this paper we report energetic ion behavior and its composition variations observed by the Cluster/RAPID instrument when the spacecraft was travelling in the high latitude magnetospheric boundary region on the day of the 31 March, 2001, strongest magnetic storm in the past 50 years. The Dst index reached −360 nT at about 09:00 UT. During its early recovery phase, large amounts of oxygen and helium ions were observed; the ratio of oxygen to hydrogen in the RAPID energy range reached as high as 250%, which suggests that the observed energetic particles might be of magnetospheric origin. The observations further show that enhanced energetic electron fluxes are confined in a very narrow region, while protons have occupied a larger region, and heavy ions have been observed in an even larger region. The flux of energetic electrons show a slight enhancement in a region where the magnetic field magnitude is around zero. These observed energetic ions could be quasi-trapped by the current sheet in the stagnation region of the cusp.     

Changes in the spatial scale of Beijing UHI and urban development

The seasonal and interannual variations of Beijing urban heat island (UHI) are investigated in this paper using the temperature data from 1960 to 2000 at 20 meteorological stations in the Beijing region, and then the relationship between the intensity and spatial scale of UHI and Beijing urbanization indices is analyzed and discussed. Main conclusions are the followings. First, Beijing UHI shows obvious seasonal variations, and it is strongest in winter, next in spring and autumn, and least in summer. The seasonal variation of the UHI mainly occurs in the urban area. The UHI intensity at the center of Beijing is more than 0.8℃ in winter, and only 0.5℃ in summer. Second, the intensity of Beijing HUI exhibits a clear interannual warming trend with its mean growth rate (MGR) being 0.3088℃/10 a. The MGR of HUI is largest in winter, next in spring and autumn, and least in summer, and the urban temperature increase makes a major contribution to the growth of HUI intensity. Third, since the Reform and Opening, the urbanization indices have grown several ten times or even one hundred times, the intensity of HUI has increased dramatically, and its spatial scale also expanded distinctively along with the expansion of urban architectural complexes. Fourth, the interannual variation of urbanization indices is very similar with that of HUI intensity, and their linear correlation coefficients are significant at a more than 0.001 confidence level.