三峡库区农业生态经济系统的预警分析

从系统与环境相统一的角度,研究了农业生态经济系统的模型、特征、预警分析的意义和内容;以三峡库区为例,从系统序化的观点,确定了这个系统的社会、经济、环境功能和状态的主要指标的警戒线;并与这些指标的现状、过去与未来趋势值进行对比;分别对现状预警、趋势预警和突变预警进行了评价;最后作了简易的对策探讨．     

PREDICTING RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION WITH 2D MODEL FLOODSIM

ＰＲＥＤＩＣＴＩＮＧＲＥＳＥＲＶＯＩＲＳＥＤＩＭＥＮＴＡＴＩＯＮＷＩＴＨ２ＤＭＯＤＥＬＦＬＯＯＤＳＩＭＷ．ＢＥＣＨＴＥＬＥＲ１ａｎｄＭ．ＮＵＪＩＣ２ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＰｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔａｔｉｏｎｉｓｖｅｒｙｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｂｅｆ...     

乌什水病险水库的坝基灌浆处理与效果检测

新疆乌什水水库为注入式水库,由于坝基严重渗漏,被鉴定为C级病险库。因其具有重要的防洪和灌溉作用,必需对坝基进行防渗处理,以保证其正常安全运营。根据坝基的工程地质条件,在工程设计和施工中确定了坝基的加固防渗和帷幕灌浆原则,并且根据坝基不同岩性、不同透水性,采取不同的钻孔和灌浆施工工艺,探索出一套适合本工程的灌浆工艺。这保证了施工的顺利进行和和工程质量,提高了施工效率,同时节约了大量资金。灌浆完成后运用压水试验对固结灌浆和帷幕灌浆效果进行了验证,同时通过比较坝基实施治理措施前后渗漏量,以及对泉水和湿地的观测及观察等多种手段对帷幕灌浆质量进行检查,结果表明灌浆质量和灌浆效果良好,达到了坝基防渗的目的。     

喀腊塑克水库诱发地震浅析

采用判别标志、对比判断方法,尤其是概率分析方法对喀腊塑克水库诱发地震进行了分析。概率分析方法是利用诱震水库和未发震水库的统计资料,考虑了库深、库容、构造应力环境、断层活动性及诱震区介质条件5个因素,再利用概率统计中的贝叶斯公式建立了预测水库能否诱震的概率模型,最终计算出结果。另外,从库区断层活动性及断裂所通过的位置、库水深度及岩石坚硬程度等方面,分析出可能产生诱发该水库地震的位置。结合工作中的体会,提出评价水库诱发地震的步骤和方法。最终分析结果表明,喀腊塑克水库诱发地震的可能性不大。     

长江上游大型水库运用对三峡水库汛末蓄水影响的初步分析

三峡上游大型水库逐渐增多,上游水库在蓄水期内的集中蓄水明显削减了中下游径流,导致蓄水期内用水矛盾突出,也增加了三峡水库蓄不满的机率,影响三峡水库综合效益的发挥。通过分不同水平年模拟上游已建、在建和拟建水库的长系列运行,比较各控制站长系列径流与天然径流的差别,重点分析三峡水库蓄水期各站径流受上游大型水库运行的影响。同时,在所得模拟后长系列的基础上,对三峡水库按既定蓄水规则模拟蓄水计算,分析不同水平年三峡水库的蓄水受上游大型水库蓄水的影响程度。     

Prediction of diagenetic facies using well logs – A case study from the upper Triassic Yanchang Formation,Ordos Basin,China

Understanding diagenetic heterogeneity in tight sandstone reservoirs is vital for hydrocarbon exploration. As a typical tight sandstone reservoir, the seventh unit of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin (Chang 7 unit), central China, is an important oil-producing interval. Results of helium porosity and permeability and petrographic assessment from thin sections, X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and cathodoluminescence analysis demonstrate that the sandstones have encountered various diagenetic processes encompassing mechanical and chemical compaction, cementation by carbonate, quartz, clay minerals, and dissolution of feldspar and lithic fragments. The sandstones comprise silt-to medium-grained lithic arkoses to feldspathic litharenites and litharenites, which have low porosity (0.5%–13.6%, with an average of 6.8%) and low permeability (0.009 × 10⁻³ μm² to 1.818 × 10⁻³ μm², with an average of 0.106 × 10⁻³ μm²).This study suggests that diagenetic facies identified from petrographic observations can be up-scaled by correlation with wire-line log responses, which can facilitate prediction of reservoir quality at a field-scale. Four diagenetic facies are determined based on petrographic features including intensity of compaction, cement types and amounts, and degree of dissolution. Unstable and labile components of sandstones can be identified by low bulk density and low gamma ray log values, and those sandstones show the highest reservoir quality. Tightly compacted sandstones/siltstones, which tend to have high gamma ray readings and relatively high bulk density values, show the poorest reservoir quality. A model based on principal component analysis (PCA) is built and show better prediction of diagenetic facies than biplots of well logs. The model is validated by blind testing log-predicted diagenetic facies against petrographic features from core samples of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin, which indicates it is a helpful predictive model.     

Risk-based drought early warning system in reservoir operation

This paper introduces a risk-based decision process integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. It is to support policy making under uncertainty for drought management. Aspects of posterior risk, chances of option occurrences and the corresponding options to given chances, are provided to help decision makers to make better decisions. A new risk index is also defined to characterize decision makers’ attitudes toward risk. Decision makers can understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability through accuracy assessment, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. As a pioneering experiment, the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan was tested. Over the simulation period (1964–2005), the expected overall accuracy approximated to 77%. The results show that the proposed approach is very practical and should find good use for reservoir operations.     

川西北中二叠统茅口组储层特征及成因

对四川盆地西北部钻井岩心、露头剖面样品的宏观及微观岩石学特征研究认为,川西北茅口组储层类型主要为生屑灰岩,储集空间主要为生物格架孔、粒间溶孔、粒内溶孔、溶蚀孔洞及裂缝。茅口组储层的发育主要受到沉积微相、古岩溶作用及构造作用等因素控制。其中沉积微相是储层形成的物质基础,古岩溶作用是储层形成的关键因素,而构造裂缝是储层改善及连通的重要因素。     

The Upper Limit Size of Reservoir-Induced Earthquakes

We showed the relation between the magnitude of induced earthquake and the reservoir storage and dam height based on the global catalog from 1967 to 1989 compiled by Ding Yuanzhang （1989）. By multiplying reservoir storage with dam height, we introduced a new parameter named EE. We found that the cases with specific EE and magnitude do not exceed a limit. Based on the discussion of its physics, we called EE the equivalent energy. We considered this limit as the upper limit of magnitude for reservoir-induced earthquakes. The result was proved by the recent cases occurring in China. This size limitation can be used as a helpful consideration for reservoir design.     

埋藏岩溶洞穴垮塌深度定量图版及其在碳酸盐岩缝洞型储层地质评价预测中的意义

通过对岩溶洞穴垮塌的岩石力学原理及塔里木盆地奥陶系实钻资料的分析,基本明确了洞穴埋藏垮塌的控制因素是岩石抗弯强度、洞穴尺度、洞穴距风化暴露面的距离等,并得到了洞穴垮塌深度的定量图版。该图版对于钻前预测现今埋藏于地下的碳酸盐岩洞穴是否已经垮塌、洞穴埋藏演化史精确恢复以及对裂缝—洞穴型储层的评价预测具有较强的实践意义。