Comparative analysis of fuzzy inference systems for water consumption time series prediction

Two types of fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are used for predicting municipal water consumption time series. The FISs used include an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a Mamdani fuzzy inference systems (MFIS). The prediction models are constructed based on the combination of the antecedent values of water consumptions. The performance of ANFIS and MFIS models in training and testing phases are compared with the observations and the best fit model is identified according to the selected performance criteria. The results demonstrated that the ANFIS model is superior to MFIS models and can be successfully applied for prediction of water consumption time series.     

贵州龙里典型喀斯特地区绿水资源耗用研究

以贵州龙里典型喀斯特地区为例,通过集成RS /GIS技术,利用生态水文评估工具中模块化生态水文综合管理系统( EcoHAT)对研究区绿水资源进行定量模拟,模拟出该区2005年10月- 2006年10月像元尺度上绿水资源量,并分析了其绿水资源消耗效用。结果表明: 研究区林地、草地、灌丛和农用地单位面积土壤蓄变量月均值分别为5. 6mm、6. 3 mm、6. 9 mm、7. 7 mm;林地、草地、灌丛和农用地绿水资源单位面积年有效消耗量分别为: 423. 0mm、344. 2 mm、386. 7 mm、407. 5 m m,其中低消耗量分别为相应植被类型条件下总有效消耗量的47. 0%、48. 3%、52. 7%、61. 3%。在有效消耗量中,农用地低消耗量占较大比重,林地和草地的高效和低效消耗量相近,但草地的低消耗量大于林地。据此,认为贵州龙里典型喀斯特地区绿水资源具有较大的利用潜力。但是在今后的绿水资源利用中,必须加强调控绿水资源消耗效用,增加植被盖度,减少裸地面积,以减少绿水资源的无效消耗量;与此同时,还应调整植被结构,以减少植被棵间土壤的低效消耗量。      

基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测

能源消费所产生的碳排放是经济发展过程中不可避免的副产品,而且碳排放在大气中的积累会使全球气候不断变暖,因此经济增长与碳排放之间的关系一直是学术界关注的焦点。传统的基于EKC曲线的经济计量学方法一般是对经济与排放历史数据的相关关系研究,不能很好地反映二者之间的动力学机制。为此本文在内生经济增长模型Moon-Sonn基础上进行改进,首先从理论上得到了最优经济增长率与能源强度之间存在倒U曲线关系的必要条件,即能源的产出弹性小于0.5;接着将投入产出分析得到的反映技术进步下的能源强度代入模型,对中国未来经济增长路径进行了预测,同时得到了最优增长路径下的能源消费走势,进而通过对能源消费结构和不同能源品种的碳排放系数的预测和估计,以及对分品种能源碳排放的汇总计算得到了中国未来能源消费所产生的总的碳排放走势。结果显示,在当前技术进步速率下,我国分别在2043年和2040年达到能源消费高峰和碳排放高峰。此外,本文对能源强度不同下降速率对能源消费高峰的影响进行模拟发现,当降速为4.5%~5%时,能源高峰将出现在2040年前,此时的人均GDP为10万元左右,与OECD国家的高峰时收入一致;而且分3种情景模拟了可再生能源替代政策对...     

Using housing estates as conservation tools: A case study in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Increasing transformation and fragmentation of rural landscapes for economic reasons is causing concern to conservationists worldwide. With this trend likely to continue, perhaps conservation agencies and development corporations need to co-operate and plan housing developments that are environmentally and ecologically sustainable and can serve as refuges for endangered species. In KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, grasslands are particularly threatened by land transformation for housing developments. A case study is presented of a housing development, Wedgewood Estate in KwaZulu-Natal that has been developed and managed for conserving grassland habitat and associated species, particularly the endangered oribi (Ourebia ourebi). Feedback from the Estate's managers about the development and ecological impact were obtained. Wedgewood is an example of the viability of housing estates as refuges for endangered species and shows that the density and placement of housing and management of the natural habitat are important. It emphasizes the need for reviewing the types and amount of housing development, management of natural habitat, and the rules and regulations they put in place to assure the integrity of the conservancy is preserved. This case study also shows the potential of such ecologically sensitive housing developments as sources of surplus game for translocation, especially in the case of endangered species such as oribi.     

嫩江流域近45年来径流演变规律研究

采用随机水文学方法对嫩江流域1956~2000年的年径流量序列演变特征进行分析。结果表明,嫩江流域径流的水文周期是32a,整体而言,45a径流序列不存在明显的趋势性。此外,对嫩江流域用水性消耗程度进行分析。结果表明,人类用水性消耗量对流域水循环整体影响程度为5%,但是在流域内部影响程度存在较大差异。洮儿河子流域影响因子达到16%,反映该地区人类取用水消耗量较大。从年际分析,整个流域在70年代的影响因子要高于其它年段,呈现出越是枯水年段人类用水影响程度越大的现象。     

基于最终需求的中国出口贸易碳排放研究

以2002年为例,采用投入产出模型,从最终需求的角度对中国出口贸易引起的碳排放(包括直接和间接排放)进行了评估。结果表明,2002年中国为满足对外出口需求而在国内和国外引起的碳排放约288.22~330.49 MtC,其中国内出口排放261.19 MtC,约占当年国内一次能源消费碳排放量的23.45%;大部分部门的出口碳排放主要是由国内排放所贡献,进口再出口排放对总出口排放的平均贡献率在9.38%~20.97%之间。中国单位产值出口的平均碳排放为0.093~0.106 kgC,其中0.084 kgC是在国内排放;碳密集部门多集中于重化工业、交通运输和部分轻工业。将来一方面,中国不宜增加高耗能行业的出口;另一方面,国外发达国家也应积极向中国等发展中国家转让先进生产技术,以减少全球温室气体排放,实现全球减排行动中公平与效率的双赢。     

中国严寒和寒冷地区城镇住宅采暖耗能影响因素分析——以吉林省为例

以吉林省为例,在假设历年采暖建筑物标准室温为18℃和不同建筑物热工特性相同的前提下,认为在一定建筑设计标准下,直接影响严寒和寒冷地区城镇住宅采暖耗能的因子主要有采暖强度、城镇人口数、人均住宅建筑面积.以1978年城镇人口数、城镇人均住宅建筑面积为经济资料的基准值,以1971～2000年采暖强度的30 a平均值作为气候条件的基准值,得到采暖耗能基准值,进而计算1979年开始的逐年采暖耗能变化值,得出无论气候变暖或变冷,由于城镇人口、人均住宅建筑面积不断增加,使各地采暖耗能增加.气候是目前为止唯一可以起到降低能耗作用的因子.     

辽宁石油资源消耗变化及影响因子模拟分析

以辽宁原油消耗为研究对象,综合运用EKC曲线模型和IPAT模型对辽宁石油资源消耗变化及影响因子进行了模拟分析。结果表明:辽宁处于石油资源消耗的高增长阶段,其极大程度是受经济发展所驱动的。科学技术进步对石油资源消耗有一定程度上的减缓作用,而人口的平稳增长对石油资源退化没有明显的影响;一段时期内,辽宁石油资源消耗还将呈现增长趋势。将2种模型模拟分析方法综合使用,可找出能源可持续性变化的科学依据,为经济发展和环境管理决策提供参考。     

黄土高原西部植物耗水实验研究

针对兰州地区8种常见植物的盆栽试验,比较了其耗水量的变化特征,结果表明：在充分供水条件下,8种植物在试验期间内都能正常生长,植物耗水量从大到小排序为：柽柳＞柠条＞芨芨草＞侧柏＞甘蒙锦鸡儿＞紫穗槐＞红砂＞珍珠;在集雨条件下,植物耗水排序为：芨芨草＞珍珠＞柠条、侧柏、甘蒙锦鸡儿、＞红砂、紫穗槐＞柽柳,但柽柳和紫穗槐在集雨条件下生长出现干枝,生长不好。在雨养条件下,除红砂、甘蒙锦鸡儿、珍珠受到干旱胁迫不明显外,其余植物不同程度上有枯叶出现。紫穗槐死亡,柽柳接近死亡,其他植物耗水排序为：珍珠、芨芨草＞侧柏、甘蒙锦鸡儿、柠条＞红砂。     

Methane exchange between coal-bearing basins and the atmosphere: the Ruhr Basin and the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany

A precise knowledge of methane exchange processes is required to fully understand the recent rise of atmospheric methane concentration. Three of these processes take place at the lithosphere/atmosphere boundary: bacterial consumption of methane and emission of bacterial or thermogenic methane. This study was initiated to quantify these processes on a regional scale in the Ruhr Basin and the Lower Rhine Embayment. Since these areas are subject to bituminous coal and lignite mining, natural and anthropogenically-induced methane exchange processes could be studied. The methane emission and consumption rates and their carbon isotope signal were measured at the lithosphere/atmosphere boundary using flux chambers. On most of the soils studied, methane consumption by bacteria was identified. Thermogenic methane was released only at some of the natural faults examined. In active and abandoned bituminous coal mining areas methane emissions were restricted to small areas, where high emission rates were measured. The carbon isotope composition of methane at natural faults and in mining subsidence troughs was typical of thermogenic methane (−45 to −32 ‰ δ¹³C). Methane exchange balancing revealed that natural methane emissions from these two basins represent no source of atmospheric importance. However, methane release by upcast mining shafts dominates the methane exchange processes and is by about two orders of magnitude greater than methane consumption by bacterial oxidation in the soils.