1837年甘肃岷县北6级地震考证与发震构造分析

通过对1837年甘肃岷县北6级地震的历史资料考证、 发震构造的综合研究表明:在1837年地震中遭破坏最为严重的地区位于今岷县堡子乡武旗及临潭县陈旗一带(当时的洮州厅以东约15 km)。 由此确定1837年甘肃岷县地震极震区位于甘肃岷县-临潭-卓尼三县交界, 极震区烈度为Ⅷ度, 震中位于北纬34.7°, 东经103.9°, 误差在10 km以内。 该地区构造位于东昆仑断裂带和西秦岭北缘断裂带的应变传递和构造转换的中间过渡区, 其中临潭-宕昌断裂带活动特性差异明显, 只有部分地段表现出全新世活动特征, 地震极震区一带分布有不同程度的滑坡和基岩崩塌等。 综合分析认为, 临潭-宕昌断裂带的岷县-宕昌段的前缘分支断裂是甘肃岷县1837年6级地震的发震构造。     

Toward an improved global network for determination of tropospheric ozone climatology and trends

An examination of typical tropospheric ozone variability on daily, monthly, annual and interannual timescales and instrumental precision indicates that the current ozonesonde network is insufficient to detect a trend in tropospheric ozone of 1% per year at the 2 level even at stations with records a decade in length. From a trend prediction analysis we conclude that in order to detect a 1% per year trend in a decade or less it will be necessary to decrease the time between observations from its present value of 3–7 days to 1 day or less. The spatial distribution of the current ozonesonde stations is also inadequate for determining the global climatology of ozone. We present a quantitative theory taking into account photochemistry, surface deposition, and wind climatology to define the effectively sampled region for an observing station which, used in conjunction with the instrumental precision and the above prediction analysis, forms the basis for defining a suitable global network for determining regional and global ozone climatology and trends. At least a doubling of the present number of stations is necessary, and the oceans, most of Asia, Africa, and South America are areas where more stations are most needed. Differential absorption lidar ozone instruments have the potential for far more frequent measurements of ozone vertical profiles and hence potentially more accurate climatology and trend determinations than feasible with ozonesondes but may produce a (fair weather) biased data set above the cloud base. A strategy for cloudy regions in which either each station utilizes both lidars and sondes or each station is in fact a doublet comprised of a near-sea-level lidar and a proximal-mountain-top lidar could serve to minimize this bias.     

Historical development of the saltmarsh at Wells,Maine

Comparisons of maps and aerial photographs dating from the late 1700s to the present document the recent development of an 8 km² saltmarsh that is situated behind a barrier spit in southern Maine. Tidal channels that were relatively narrow in 1794 became wider by 1872. The reduction of marsh bordering tidal channels is interpreted as evidence that marsh accretion could not keep pace with rising sea-level. This suggests that the rate of sea-level rise had increased, although a change in discharge or sediment load caused by extensive settlement and land clearance may also have been involved. Meander patterns of the tidal streams changed considerably throughout the time period covered by the maps, demonstrating that the streams of this marsh are more dynamic than some others that have been widely reported in the literature. These differences in stream dynamics are probably related to the differences in sedimentological structure of the marshes. Between 1872 and 1956 the barrier spit eroded on its inside (shoreward) edge, probably in response to the construction of riprapping and houses along the spit, and the subsequent reduction of overwash and aeolian transport of sediment. Modification of the tidal inlet and adjacent marsh during the 1960s, including jetty construction, dredging, and filling of portions of the marsh surface, affected the marsh only locally. One tidal stream has been migrating rapidly apparently in response to compaction of peat by dredge spoils and consequent local disruption of the marsh hydrology. Except for this migration, erosion of the marsh edge occurred immediately after the inlet modifications; planimetric changes in the marsh and its streams have been minor since then.     

1823 年(清道光三年)我国特大水灾及影响

该文对道光三年（1823年）长江下游与华北的严重洪水概况及其对社会经济的影响作了初步探讨，并对这次洪水发生的原因及灾害形成的机制也作了分析，认为了解这次洪水及其产生的影响对于我国减灾战略的制订有重要参考价值。     

历史上10年—100年尺度气候跃变的分析

利用史料重建了华北海河流域和陕西关中地区两千多年来的旱涝变化概况.采用移动符号检验法和移动T检验法分析了其中的几十和几百年尺度的跃变现象.通过比较海河、关中以及河南等地区的同期变化,区分出局地性和非局地性两类跃变事件;并通过个例分析指出了华北地区气候跃变和季风环流形势的可能联系.本文还对10~1—10~2年尺度气候跃变的发生频率和变化程度作了一般估计.     

Lower Tropospheric Warm Air Advection Patterns Associated with Heavy Rainfall over the Appalachian Region*

A synoptic climatology of warm season heavy rainfall is developed from patterns of 850 mb thermal advection over the Appalachian region. Heavy rain events are categorized according to the position and orientation of a warm air advection (WAA) ridge, a feature found in nearly two-thirds of the events. Numerous study events occur within the conditionally unstable region of the WAA ridge. In fact, numerous occurrences of heavy rainfall are tied to a superpositioning of a WAA and air mass instability ridge in the vicinity or upstream of the heavy rain area.     

14C dating and palaeoenvironment of the historic ‘little ice age’ glacier advance of Nigardsbreen Southwest Norway

Moss and grass remains associated with a well-developed in situ palaeosol buried beneath a moraine ridge in front of Nigardsbreen (Jostedalsbreen ice cap, southern Norway) have been ¹⁴C-dated. Pollen preserved with the plant remains suggests the existence of an agricultural landscape prior to the deposition of the moraine. The calibrated dates and the pollen spectra are in close accord with historically-documented evidence for the timing and palaeoenvironment of the ‘Little Ice Age’ advance of the glacier. Considerable potential is indicated for estimating the maximum ages of moraine ridges and for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction where such documentary evidence does not exist.     

1500年宜良地震地表形变带的考证

据历史记载１５００年在宜良一带发生了一次强烈地震，由前人对该次地震无较详细的现 场实地考查资料，因此对这次地震认识说法不一。１９９２年作者对该次地震进行了实地考证。发现和确认了这次地震十分丰富的地震地表形变带，现存长度达８１公里，最大左旋水平位错量９至１１米。研究结果表明该次地震的发震构造为小新街－徐家渡断裂，震级接近８级。     

绿洲荒漠交界处波文比能量平衡法适用性的气候学分析

对广泛使用的计算蒸散和显热通量的气候学方法－波文比能量平衡法在绿洲荒漠交界处的适用性从气候学角度进行分析。结果表明,波文化－能量平衡法在干旱区绿洲的平衡层内是适用的,在平衡层外及荒漠上空却失效。因而,应用波文比能量平衡法估算绿洲上的蒸发与显热时,测点的位置是至关重要的。     

Landslide triggering scenarios in homogeneous geological contexts: The area surrounding Acri (Calabria, Italy)

The paper describes a methodology to detect landslide triggering scenarios in geological homogeneous areas and for some specific landslide categories. In these scenarios, the rainfall–landslide relationship as well as the pluviometric load conditions influencing slope instability have to be investigated.The methodology is applied to an area located in northern Calabria (Italy) and affected by widespread and different slope instability phenomena. Outcropped, fractured, and deeply weathered crystalline rock masses, determining geologic homogeneous conditions, are present. In the same area, suitable and homogeneous climatic features have also been found.According to the methodology adopted, the hydrologic analysis of rainfall time-series is initially carried out notwithstanding historical data concerning landslide mobilization, but using simple models to determine critical pluviometric scenarios for the three landslide categories: shallow, medium-deep, and deep. Landslide-triggering scenarios individualized according to this procedure are less significant as compared to the landslide mobilization detected in the study area by means of historical research and ascribed to the three landslide categories according to geomorphologic analysis.Subsequently, the possible landslide triggering scenarios are outlined by carefully investigating the hydrologic analysis limited to the periods identified according to the historical data.In the study area and approximately for all the areas characterized by the outcrop of fractured and deeply weathered crystalline rocks, significant triggering scenarios can be outlined. In particular, shallow landslide triggers could be activated by rainfall events with intensities exceeding 90 mm/day and/or with amounts exceeding 160 mm. As for medium-deep and deep landslides, triggering mechanisms are more complicated; and effective rainfall contribution must be taken into account compared to groundwater storage. Moreover, a more complex link between deep landslides and precipitation is confirmed.The results obtained to date highlight the potential of this methodology, which enables us to define and progressively improve the knowledge framework by means of a work sequence integrating different disciplinary tools and results.