Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.     

1967—2016年黄河上游河曲地区降水变化特征研究

利用1967~2016年黄河上游河曲地区的5个气象站观测气象站的逐日地面降水和气温资料,利用气候变化趋势分析、距平、Mann-kendall 时间序列突变及趋势检验方法分析了该地区气温变化特征、不同类型各等级降水量及降水日数的气候特征。结果表明：(1)近50年黄河上游河曲地区年均气温以0.459℃/10a趋势显著上升,上升速度低于全国其它地区,且在2002年气温发生突变后升温加剧；(2)年降水量和降水日数呈减少趋势,主要是由夏季小雨量和小雨日数的减少引起；(3)在2002年气温突增后,强降水对总降水量贡献率增加,且年降水量和降水日数波动幅度也明显增大,这可能预示该地区洪涝灾害的风险在增加。降水日数的贡献率增加,增加明显的是中雨日数和小雨日数,分别增加了1.1%和1.7%。     

The Evaporation Effect on the Isotopes in the Yellow River Water

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A preliminary study on sediment flux in the Changjiang Delta during the postglacial period

During the last 7000 years since the Changjiang Delta was formed, how much sediment brought by the Changjiang River remained in the modern Changjiang Delta? And how much sediment was delivered into the sea and adjacent coasts? These are very important que…     

云南境内澜沧江流域土地利用时空变化特征及动因分析

    澜沧江-湄公河是一条集内河、界河、国际河流为一体的河流。云南境内澜沧江流域涉及云南西部 7个地州39个县市。复杂的地形地貌结构和多种气候带,形成植被垂直分布和地域分布的特点,呈现出多样性变化特征;域内94％为山区;占流域人口83％的民族（18个少数民族）大分散小聚居立体分布在山区,土地资源一直是他们赖以生存的最主要的生产生活资料,不同民族土地利用习俗,使流域内土地利用格局呈现出多元化特征。在这样一个边疆山区民族地区,寻求一条多元民族文化下土地资源合理利用和可持续发展战略,是加强民族团结,寻求均等发展机会脱贫致富,实现各民族共同繁荣和富裕的关键。
    采用遥感（RS）、地理信息系统（GIS）、全球卫星定位系统（GPS）高新技术,典型地区启用了快速农村评估（PRA,RapidRuralAppraise）方法,对流域1990年、1998年土地利用现状及空间结构演变进行了时空动态叠合研究、森林土地时空动态的整体演变研究以及变化动因分析,在此基础上,就多元民族文化下土地利用人地系统演变和流域发展的关联问题,提出一些看法,仅供商榷。     

CLOBAL CHARM OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA

1SPLENDOROFHISTORICALCULTURE InChina,theChangjiang(Yangtze)RiverDelta①gen-erallymeansanadvancedproductivityandculture,whichaffectsdeeplynotonlythewholeChinabutal-sotheAsian-Pacificregion,evenEuropeandAfrica. 1.1CradlefortheCommunicationandPropagationofCivilization ThedevelopmentcourseoftheChangjiangRiverDelta'scultureisdevious,buttheNeolithicHemuduCultureexcavatedinYuyaoCityofZhejiangProvinceindicatestheadvancedpaddyriceculture;MajiabangCulture5000aB.P.andEastBridgeRuin…     

Application of swat model in the upstream watershed of the Luohe River

1INTRODUCTIONIntheHuanghe(Yellow) Riverbasin, soilerosionisaseriousproblem,whilerunoffandsedimentyieldsim-ulation hasnotbeenextensivelystudiedonthebasisofGIS(GeographicInformationSystem) and dis-tributedhydrologicalmodel.Inthisstudy,theLushiwatershed,whichislocatedattheupstreamoftheLushiHydrologicalStationintheLuoheRiver—thebiggesttributary oftheHuanghe Riveranddown-streamofXiaolangdiDam,isselectedasthestudyarea.ThelevelofsoilerosioninLushiwatershedismoderatein theHuangheRiverbas…     

嘉陵江流域水保治理前后沿程水沙变化研究

嘉陵江为长江上游重要支流,是长江三峡水库重要的洪水和泥沙来源地。20世纪50年代初至80年代末,多年平均径流量701亿m3,多年平均悬移质输沙量近1.4亿t;“长治”工程的实施,对控制流域水土流失起到了较为明显的积极作用。以流域内主要控制站大量的实测水文气象资料为依据,重点研究了全流域水保治理前后的水沙变化情况及规律。     

A River Water Quality Model for Chlorophyll and Dissolved Oxygen that Accommodates Zebra Mussel Metabolism

The development, testing and application of a dynamic two-dimensional (longitudinal-vertical) mass balance model for dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll (Chl) for rivers is documented that for the first time accommodates both the oxygen demand and filtering effects of zebra mussels. The test system is a phytoplankton-rich section ( 15 km long) of the Seneca River, NY, that is believed to represent an upper bound of the impact of this exotic invader. Changes in common measures of water quality of the river brought about by the zebra mussel invasion are reviewed and related longitudinal patterns in DO, Chl, and Secchi disc transparency are documented. Model testing is supported by comprehensive measurements of DO, Chl, and various forcing conditions over a three-month period, and independent determinations of several model coefficients. Wide variations in the areal consumption rate of DO (ZOD; g·m^–2·d^–1) and filtering rate (m³·m^–2·d^–1) of zebra mussels, as determined through model calibration, occurred over the study period. Values of ZOD in areas with dense zebra mussel populations at times (e.g., > 50 g·m^–2·d^–1) were an order of magnitude greater than the sediment oxygen demand associated with organically enriched deposits. The value of determinations of these fluxes from model calibration procedures is evaluated within the context of the limitations of protocols presently available to support independent specification of these rates. Model analyses are conducted to evaluate the relative magnitude of source and sink processes for DO and Chl, the potential operation and implications of feedback from low DO levels on oxygen consumption by zebra mussels, and the sensitivity of model simulations to selected sources of uncertainty and variability. Model projections of oxygen resources of the river are presented in a probabilistic format in evaluating reductions in zebra mussel biomass that would be necessary to eliminate violations of standards and regain assimilative capacity.