21世纪前20年世界地质工作重大事件、重大成果与未来30年中国地质工作发展的思考

在21世纪前20年里,以页岩气、页岩油、天然气水合物和干热岩为代表的非常规能源勘查开发取得重大突破,美国因页岩气勘查开发取得突破实现了能源独立。随着全球经济发展、气候变化加剧和能源转型,对关键金属矿产的需求不断增加,世界各国强势推出关键矿产清单,力求保障本国资源安全。深海探测、地球深部探测取得新进展。地球系统科学成为当代地质科学主题,形成了一批新概念,例如地质多样性、关键带、人类世、临界要素等,引领地质工作的转型。展望未来30年,世界百年未有之大变局加速演进,人类将面临资源、环境、生态的重大挑战,地质工作正处于重大转折时期。中国地质工作要突出清洁能源和深海资源勘探开发,要建立基于生态系统的地质调查、监测、模拟与预测技术体系,开展自然资源综合调查,支撑服务国土空间规划、生态保护和修复及城市建设,促进地质工作转型和发展。     

岩体质量分级的风险分析方法

提出了基于RMR岩体质量分级系统的岩体质量研究风险分析方法。该方法分析步骤如下 :(1)通过岩芯样品的现场观测和实验室试验获得分类所需的变量 ;(2 )统计分析拟合得出各变量的分布函数及参数 ;(3)运用Monte Carlo模拟方法获得 2万个RMR值 ,并将结果绘成岩体质量描述图 ;(4)利用以上结果作出岩体质量风险分析评价。该方法用于润扬长江公路大桥岩体质量评价研究获得良好效果     

基于Leica XPro系统的ADS80数字影像空三加密方法研究

ADS80航空摄影测量系统作为新一代的数字摄影系统,其获得的高分辨率航空影像已经广泛应用于我国各行业的基础建设项目中。Leica XPro系统是对ADS80影像数据做后续处理的主流软件之一,本文主要介绍了基于Leica XPro系统进行空三加密的流程,并对加密过程中可能遇到的一些问题加以分析和阐述。     

雅安芦山4.20震后县级单元生态系统风险评价

区域生态风险评价是对各种生态风险及环境问题进行评价和管理的重要手段。针对雅安地震灾区特殊的自然地理及生态环境特征,选取芦山县为研究对象,采用遥感、GIS及SPSS统计分析的方法,通过风险源、风险受体、暴露和易损性分析,建立生态风险综合评价模型,划分生态风险区类型,进而提出生态风险管理对策。结果表明:1)微度和低度生态风险区集中分布在高海拔的森林及草地生态系统,该区生物多样性丰富,抗干扰能力较强,地质灾害及人类活动影响较小;2)中度和高度生态风险区具有沿农田及建设用地生态系统集聚分布的特征,该区地质灾害频繁,地壳活动性较强,生态系统抵抗灾害的能力较差。研究结果可为地震灾区防御、规避风险及安全选址提供科学依据。     

基于方差递推法的Kalman滤波在钟差预报中的应用

卫星导航系统中星载原子钟的钟差预报对于导航、定位及授时具有重要的作用。为了提高卫星钟差预报的精度,设计了一种两步确定卫星钟噪声协方差矩阵的Kalman滤波钟差预报模型。该方法首先基于Hadamard总方差确定卫星钟噪声协方差矩阵的初值,然后,使用方差递推法得到滤波过程中卫星钟的噪声协方差矩阵。使用GPS系统的星载铷钟数据进行短期预报,并与常用的二次多项式模型、灰色模型进行对比,结果表明:本文中提出的方法可以实现高精度的卫星钟差预报且预报效果优于两种常用模型,同时,该方法能够在一定程度上弥补预报误差随预报时间增加而不断变大的不足。     

基于移动端的“智慧城市与地理国情一张图系统”设计及其应用

系统把智慧城市建设与地理国情应用完美结合,形成时空一体、二三维一体的集成多源数据的一张图;开发IPAD版系统,把PC端的数据处理向移动端适时展现。系统具有国情普查数据的展示和分析、专题地图展示、电子地图、三维模型展示、轨迹记录,以及其他GIS基本功能。在屏幕上任意点取闭合图形,就会实时显示选定图形范围内的国情数据及统计分析数据。辅助决策者又好又快地进行科学决策。     

Re-conceptualizing the Anthropocene: A call for collaboration

Since it was first proposed in 2000, the concept of the Anthropocene has evolved in breadth and diversely. The concept encapsulates the new and unprecedented planetary-scale changes resulting from societal transformations and has brought to the fore the social drivers of global change. The concept has revealed tensions between generalized interpretations of humanity’s contribution to global change, and interpretations that are historically, politically and culturally situated. It motivates deep ethical questions about the politics and economics of global change, including diverse interpretations of past causes and future possibilities. As such, more than other concepts, the Anthropocene concept has brought front-and-center epistemological divides between and within the natural and social sciences, and the humanities. It has also brought new opportunities for collaboration. Here we explore the potential and challenges of the concept to encourage integrative understandings of global change and sustainability. Based on bibliometric analysis and literature review, we discuss the now wide acceptance of the term, its interpretive flexibility, the emerging narratives as well as the debates the concept has inspired. We argue that without truly collaborative and integrative research, many of the critical exchanges around the concept are likely to perpetuate fragmented research agendas and to reinforce disciplinary boundaries. This means appreciating the strengths and limitations of different knowledge domains, approaches and perspectives, with the concept of the Anthropocene serving as a bridge, which we encourage researchers and others to cross. This calls for institutional arrangements that facilitate collaborative research, training, and action, yet also depends on more robust and sustained funding for such activities. To illustrate, we briefly discuss three overarching global change problems where novel types of collaborative research could make a difference: (1) Emergent properties of socioecological systems; (2) Urbanization and resource nexus; and (3) Systemic risks and tipping points. Creative tensions around the Anthropocene concept can help the research community to move toward new conceptual syntheses and integrative action-oriented approaches that are needed to producing useful knowledge commensurable with the challenges of global change and sustainability.     

Down to Earth: Contextualizing the Anthropocene

The ‘Anthropocene’ is now being used as a conceptual frame by different communities and in a variety of contexts to understand the evolving human–environment relationship. However, as we argue in this paper, the notion of an Anthropos, or ‘humanity’, as global, unified ‘geological force’ threatens to mask the diversity and differences in the actual conditions and impacts of humankind, and does not do justice to the diversity of local and regional contexts. For this reason, we interpret in this article the notion of an Anthropocene in a more context-dependent, localized and social understanding. We do this through illustrating examples from four issue domains, selected for their variation in terms of spatial and temporal scale, systems of governance and functional interdependencies: nitrogen cycle distortion (in particular as it relates to food security); ocean acidification; urbanization; and wildfires. Based on this analysis, we systematically address the consequences of the lens of the Anthropocene for the governance of social-ecological systems, focusing on the multi-level, functional and sectoral organization of governance, and possible redefinitions of governance systems and policy domains. We conclude that the notion of the Anthropocene, once seen in light of social inequalities and regional differences, allows for novel analysis of issue-based problems in the context of a global understanding, in both academic and political terms. This makes it a useful concept to help leverage and (re-)focus our efforts in a more innovative and effective way to transition towards sustainability.     

江苏一次锢囚状MCS和相关中涡旋MCV的观测分析

利用常规地面和高空气象观测资料,结合气象卫星云图和雷达回波,分析了2009年6月14日15—23时(北京时,下同),造成江苏强对流天气的一个中尺度对流系统(MCS)的锢囚状特征的形成过程及其垂直结构。地面中尺度分析表明,雷暴高压东侧在飑前倒槽北端发展的闭合低压环流的东南气流将暖湿空气输送到冷性雷暴高压的北侧形成东南一西北向的暖舌,从而形成锢囚状的结构。长三角探空网资料的垂直结构分析表明,在对流层下部地面到850 hPa为冷性的雷暴高压,在对流层中部700 hPa为冷性的α中尺度涡旋(MCV),而500 hPa已转变为暖性的MCV。静力学关系可以说明MCV仅仅存在于700~500 hPa的原因和MCS下冷上暖的热力结构密切相关。     

Application of ICTs in Airspace Management and Collaborative Decision-Making—Analyzing the Risk Avoidance in the Condition of Risky Weather as an Example

The application of ICTs makes structural change of the development and effective utilization of airspace. Next generation air transportation system (NextGen) includes new automation concepts with automated information to support the traffic control decision-making. As a result, in the field of academia and industry, air traffic controllers integrate information automatically while making decisions to change the previous manually integrated and decided pattern. The safety ability of airspace is reduced and airspace system is endangered under risky weather conditions of airspace. So there is an urgent demand for new information and communication technologies. The paper is an overview of the information constitution and support of NextGen and provides the study of the development of technique of airspace collaborative decision-makings to confirm the new features based on ICTs. It contains basic application-the input of data and output of the routes of airspace management and collaborative decision-making, and general application-the choose of probability nets of avoiding risky weather, and special application-the affection in the management of the air routes, which are made up of position and direction. The research shows the accurate schedule characteristics of airspace management and collaborative decision-making based on ICTs, which made the space accurate by time accurate. Second, the visualization of airspace management and collaborative decision-making based on ICTs made the maps of flight path under mobile data quickly generated. This could make the fully development and utilization of national airspace, ensure safety, and reduce air traffic controllers’ workload and the costs in delaying and operating in risky weather.