退耕还林还草工程对中国北方农牧交错区土地利用/覆被变化的影响——以科尔沁左翼后旗为例

以北方农牧交错区-科尔沁左翼后旗为例,利用卫星遥感技术获取1980~2010年土地利用/覆被信息,通过统计模型重建土地利用/覆被及景观格局变化过程,综合评价二者动态及退耕还林还草等生态恢复工程的影响。研究区土地整体处于准平衡态势,各地类双向转换较频繁;耕地与草地的变化对区域土地利用/覆被及景观格局变化起支配作用;退耕还林还草等生态恢复工程逆转了天然植被(包括草地与林地)整体减少及耕地与未利用地增加的局面,使各景观破碎化程度有所缓解,这可能有利于生态环境的改善。     

INTEX-B NO2排放源在中国地区的应用与检验

将INTEX-B排放源应用到空气质量模型Model3-CMAQ中,对中国地区对流层NO₂的浓度分布进行了数值模拟,并与OMI卫星对流层NO₂资料进行了对比和验证。结果表明：将INTEX-B排放源应用到Model3-CMAQ模式,模拟的NO₂浓度在中国地区的分布、季节变化规律与卫星资料所得结果一致。敏感性试验表明,工业及电厂排放对NO₂的浓度贡献最大,而交通排放的贡献相对较小,两种排放均主要集中在京津、长江三角洲等经济发达地区。     

全球模式NCAR CESM和CAS ESM对亚洲东部夏季气候的模拟性能评估:气候平均态和降水日变化分析

主要评估了美国国家大气研究中心的NCAR CESM（Community Earth System Model,NCAR）和中国科学院的CAS ESM（Earth System Model,Chinese Academy of Sciences）两个地球系统模式对亚洲东部夏季气候态的模拟性能。使用NCAR CESM和CAS ESM各两种不同的水平分辨率,一共进行了4组长达19年（1998~2016年）的数值积分试验,并通过对2 m气温、降水强度和降水日变化等的分析,比较了这两个模式在亚洲东部的模拟性能。结果表明,CAS ESM和NCAR CESM均能模拟出夏季2 m气温和降水强度的大尺度分布特征,但整体上模拟得到的地表面气温偏暖、降水强度偏弱。对于降水日变化而言,观测的日降水峰值在陆地上主要发生在下午到傍晚时段,在海洋上则出现在午夜到凌晨时段。两组低分辨率试验模拟的陆地降水峰值出现过早,且无法模拟出四川盆地的夜间降水峰值和部分海洋地区凌晨或上午的降水峰值。提高分辨率对模式的模拟性能有显著的提升作用。高分辨率下,NCAR CESM和CAS ESM对陆地和海洋的降水日变化模拟性能都明显提高。对降水日变化的定量化分析表明,高分辨率CAS ESM模式对整个亚洲东部降水日变化的模拟最优。目前模式对海陆风的模拟还不太理想,未来要进一步提高模式模拟性能,需要重点完善与气温、降水过程相关的物理参数化方案。     

通用地球系统模式对亚洲夏季风降水的模拟能力评估

通过与观测/再分析资料和参加第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的模式模拟结果进行对比,评估了通用地球系统模式(CESM,1.0.3版本)对亚洲夏季风降水的模拟能力。结果表明:CESM能够合理地模拟出亚洲夏季风降水的气候平均态,但与其他CMIP5模式模拟结果类似,对中国东南地区降水模拟偏少,而对中国西部高原地区降水模拟偏多;CESM可以再现亚洲季风区降水冬弱夏强、雨带北进南退的季节变化特征,其模拟偏差具有区域性和季节性差异;从EOF分析结果来看,CESM能够模拟出亚洲夏季风降水的时空变化特征,且能较好地抓住亚洲夏季风降水与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,简称ENSO)的相关关系。总的说来,CESM对亚洲夏季风降水的模拟是合理的,模拟水平与4个最好的CMIP5模式相当。     

Community forest management in Indonesia: Avoided deforestation in the context of anthropogenic and climate complexities

Community forest management has been identified as a win-win option for reducing deforestation while improving the welfare of rural communities in developing countries. Despite considerable investment in community forestry globally, systematic evaluations of the impact of these policies at appropriate scales are lacking. We assessed the extent to which deforestation has been avoided as a result of the Indonesian government’s community forestry scheme, Hutan Desa (Village Forest). We used annual data on deforestation rates between 2012 and 2016 from two rapidly developing islands: Sumatra and Kalimantan. The total area of Hutan Desa increased from 750 km² in 2012 to 2500 km² in 2016. We applied a spatial matching approach to account for biophysical variables affecting deforestation and Hutan Desa selection criteria. Performance was assessed relative to a counterfactual likelihood of deforestation in the absence of Hutan Desa tenure. We found that Hutan Desa management has successfully achieved avoided deforestation overall, but performance has been increasingly variable through time. Hutan Desa performance was influenced by anthropogenic and climatic factors, as well as land use history. Hutan Desa allocated on watershed protection forest or limited production forest typically led to a less avoided deforestation regardless of location. Conversely, Hutan Desa granted on permanent or convertible production forest had variable performance across different years and locations. The amount of rainfall during the dry season in any given year was an important climatic factor influencing performance. Extremely dry conditions during drought years pose additional challenges to Hutan Desa management, particularly on peatland, due to increased vulnerability to fire outbreaks. This study demonstrates how the performance of Hutan Desa in avoiding deforestation is fundamentally affected by biophysical and anthropogenic circumstances over time and space. Our study improves understanding on where and when the policy is most effective with respect to deforestation, and helps identify opportunities to improve policy implementation. This provides an important first step towards evaluating the overall effectiveness of this policy in achieving both social and environmental goals.     

Redevelopment and the urban forest: A study of tree removal and retention during demolition activities

Though relationships between urbanization and tree cover are generally well studied, the effect of redevelopment on urban trees, at the scale of the individual property, is not well understood. Developing knowledge in this area is important in order to limit tree loss during redevelopment and thus, ensure sustained ecosystem services. Here, we explore the removal or retention of trees adjacent to building demolition in Christchurch, New Zealand. We mapped the presence or absence of individual trees on 123 properties prior to, and following, building demolition. Using a classification tree (CT) analysis, the presence or absence of 1209 trees was modelled as a function of: tree-related variables, property-related variables, and economic variables. The CT model estimated tree presence/absence with overall accuracy of 80.4%. Results show that 21.6% of all trees were removed as a consequence of building demolition, resulting in a tree canopy cover reduction of 19.7% across all 123 properties. The CT showed that tree crown area was the most important variable for predicting the presence/absence of trees, whereby trees with small crown areas (<7.9 m²) were most frequently removed, especially if they were within 0.7 m of a demolished building. Land value was also an important determinant of tree presence/absence, such that tree removal was more prevalent on properties with higher land value ($/m²). The results provide important new insights into some of the reasons for tree removal or retention during redevelopment at the scale of the individual property where most tree-related decisions are made.     

Cultivating climate justice: Green infrastructure and suburban disadvantage in Australia

Green infrastructure has recently risen to international prominence for its purported capacity to enhance urban sustainability, and particularly to modulate ambient temperatures in the context of climate change. We assess whether residents in a sub-tropical Australian city perceive green infrastructure as an effective climate adaptation response for reducing vulnerability to heat stress. Gold Coast City has pursued urban densification policies, such as reducing block sizes and increasing building heights, to accommodate rapid population growth. Little attention has been given to the combined impact of local heat island effects and global climate change upon lower-income residents in the city's suburban fringe, including rising energy costs associated with cooling homes. The study has three aims: to assess whether social disadvantage is associated with (1) concern about climate change impacts; (2) perceptions about the potential of green infrastructure to offer potential climate-adaptive benefits; and (3) the desire for more urban greening in a working class suburb. We used a mail-back survey to elicit information related to cooling dwellings, awareness of, and concern about, climate change impacts, perceptions of the benefits of green infrastructure, and desire for more urban greening. Results indicate that despite their vulnerability to heat stress, comparatively disadvantaged residents are no more concerned about climate change; nor are they any more inclined to encourage local government to enhance neighbourhood greenery. These residents are, if anything, less likely to perceive benefits of urban greening. Our findings indicate that cultivating support for green infrastructure in disadvantaged neighbourhoods will require parallel efforts to redress inequality.     

安塞县退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统协同效应的分析——基于VAR模型的实证分析

针对黄土丘陵区退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统协同性研究滞后的现实,运用向量自回归模型(VAR),通过对安塞县1995–2014年相关数据的分析,明确了其协同效应。退耕还林工程结果表明:退耕还林工程对农业生态经济社会系统产生作用的同时,农业生态经济社会系统的改变也反作用于退耕还林工程,明确了退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统之间存在协同互馈的效应。在这一协同过程中,退耕还林工程对农业生态系统的贡献率达34%,明显高于退耕对农业经济系统、农业社会系统的贡献率;农业经济系统对退耕还林工程的影响程度最为明显,贡献率最高点达55.3%且常年稳定,这些都与现实状况相一致。基于此,为了推进退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统的优化耦合,需要在增强生态功能基础上,通过发展碳汇产业促使生态功能的经济显化,构建以提高区域内资源的有效利用率为核心的农业产业–资源链。     

Combating Desertification and Improving Local Livelihoods through the GGWI in the Sahel Region: The Example of Senegal

The Great Green Wall Initiative (GGWI) has an overall objective of fighting desert encroachment through proven practices of sustainable management of land, and the reinforcement and protection of natural resources and systems of production and transformation, while also ensuring socio-economic development of local communities through multi-purpose activity platforms. The activities described in the present study are designed to accomplish several goals: (1) generate wealth, (2) strengthen access to basic social services, (3) manage the transition to a green economy as a means of creating suitable conditions for the emergence of rural production centers, (4) integrate sustainable development in order to eradicate poverty and food insecurity, and (5) strengthen adaptation and resilience capacities of local populations. The present study was undertaken on the basis of a wide variety of available publications and documentation, including articles and scientific papers, thesis, meeting summaries and reports, concerning the implementation of the Great Green Wall Initiative/GGWI in Senegal.