闽江上游地区山洪灾害风险评估*

以1994年5月的山洪作为典型案例,分析了闽江上游地区存在山洪灾害风险的自然原因和人文原因。通过山洪灾害的强频分析和以灾变系数为指标揭示了闽江上游地区山洪灾害风险的空间分布规律,结果表明,同一频度的山洪强度量度都是从西北向东南减少,且其灾变性在源地附近较强,离源地越远越弱。     

基于公平性评估的滨湖城市水环境容量配置研究——以无锡市区COD配置为例

随着发达地区经济社会的快速发展,水污染物排放量急剧增加,甚至超出区域水环境容量,致使水环境不断恶化,并成为制约区域经济社会发展的重要因素.本文综合考虑水环境容量供给能力和需求状况两方面要素,以流域为基本评价单元,采用综合分区技术和矩阵向量模型,构建水环境容量总量指标分配方法,并以无锡市区为例提出水环境容量的多情景配置方案.在此基础上,引入基尼系数方法测度不同方案的公平性,据此进行情景方案的优选.总体上,中心城区及东北部地区配置较大的环境容量,位于太湖上游的西部和西北部地区以及望虞河沿线地区环境容量供给能力较低,配置较少的环境容量.研究结果可为协调区域产业发展与水环境关系、制定差别化的产业准入政策提供科学依据.     

中国城市休闲化区域差异及成因解读

我国城市休闲化发展存在显著的区域差异,且总体上呈现出逐渐扩大的趋势。利用锡尔系数和基尼系数,从空间与要素两个角度探究了2004—2016年我国35个城市休闲化区域差异的成因。研究发现：一是从空间角度,影响城市休闲化区域差异的主要因素依次为：东、中、西部经济带间的发展差异、东部地区城市间发展差异和西部地区城市间发展差异;但随着时间推移,东、中、西部区域间差异的影响力正在逐渐缩小,西部城市间差异的影响力逐年提升。二是从要素分解来看,居民消费、产业发展、城市交通、经济水平、休闲旅游接待等要素的区域差异是导致城市休闲化区域差异的重要因素。最后,从探究均衡发展机制、打造全域休闲、释放居民休闲消费潜力、提升城市休闲服务设施等角度提出休闲化区域均衡发展的对策和建议。     

高质量发展目标下海洋经济复合系统协调发展研究——以辽宁省为例

海洋经济复合系统的协调对于实现海洋经济高质量发展具有重要意义。在高质量发展目标和要求下,构建海洋经济复合系统协调发展评价指标体系,文章采用距离型协调度评价模型,以辽宁省为例,计算其2006—2016年海洋经济复合系统的协调度及各子系统之间的协调度,分析影响协调的因素,并利用基尼系数模型对其协调发展进行预警研究。结果表明：①海洋生态子系统仍是实现海洋经济复合系统协调发展的关键环节;②2006-2016年,辽宁省海洋经济复合系统实现了从严重失调到中度协调的转变,这期间复合系统协调度未超出基尼系数警戒值。     

横断山区水土资源利用与经济增长的匹配关系

水土资源不仅是山区生态系统服务供给的一部分,同时也是山区经济发展的重要投入要素。本文以横断山区为研究对象,利用基尼系数法评估水土资源和经济发展之间的匹配状况,同时基于个体随机效应模型建立拓展的Cobb-Douglas生产函数模型实现了经济增长对水土要素的敏感性分析,引入经济增长阻尼模型定量测算了水土资源对横断山区经济发展的制约程度。结果表明：① 2006—2015年横断山区水资源、土地资源与GDP的区域基尼系数波动范围分别为0.260~0.298和0.389~0.424,水资源对不同产业的满足程度相对合理,而对土地资源的利用与经济发展较不匹配,尤其是第二、三产业;② 敏感性分析结果表明,横断山区土地资源的产出弹性是水资源2倍左右,土地资源的累计贡献率明显高于水资源,土地资源要素对经济增长贡献大于水资源要素。③ 水土资源增长阻尼平均水平分别为0.012和0.022,说明水资源和土地资源对横断山区经济发展均产生明显的约束作用,且受土地资源的限制较大。研究表明中国山区发展需要更加重视水土资源开发利用与经济增长需求的匹配,充分挖掘水土资源的利用潜力提高供给可以降低其对经济增长的制约程度。     

Modeling relationships between the network distance and travel time dynamics for assessing equity of accessibility to urban parks

Static models of accessibility are usually based on the fixed distance or Average Travel Time (ATT) models. Because of ignoring the traffic as a dynamic process affecting the accessibility through the change of Travel Time (TT), these models lead to unperceived temporal inequities. In contrast to the consideration of the temporal Variation of TT (VTT) in the previous studies, the variation of traffic- related TT and its relations with network distance has not been considered. In this study, relations between VTT and network distance to access urban parks in Tehran megacity has been modeled. Traffic maps at five times of day are used to produce TT maps of Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) to their 3-closest parks. Comparison of the Gini coefficients of accessibility show significant inequities of accessibility at different times of day. Relations between the distance, ATT, and TTmax are modeled by statistical analysis. Results show both TT and TTmax have significant positive relations with distance and traffic and reach their maximum at 6 p.m. Observation of significant relations between distance, ATT, TTmax, and VTT provides interesting knowledge for the conversion of temporal measures of equity (TT) to a physical measure of equity (distance). A simple application of these findings for effective management of the spatiotemporal inequities is the definition of critical distances from public services. As an example, to decrease the TTmax of TAZs to less than 12 min, their maximum distance to the closest parks should be less than 4 km. The developed approach can be adopted for the accessibility evaluation of the other public services, particularly the health and education centers.     

江苏高邮地磁台地磁异常与地震关系的研究

应用加卸载响应比法、日变幅逐日比法及空间相关分析法，分析研究了江苏高邮地磁台1992年至1997年地磁垂直分量的观测资料，结果发现，在中强地震前高邮台的地磁场存在明显的磁异常变化。提出了适用于高邮台的地震分析预报参数。     

唐山沿海地区地面沉降渗流固结耦合模拟研究

唐山沿海地区经济在迅速发展,沿海地区城市化规模在扩大,地下水开采量增大,地面沉降加剧.文中分析了唐山沿海地区的水文地质条件,概化为3个含水层、3个弱透水层,共6个压缩层.建立了三维地下水流和垂向一维压缩完全耦合模型.采用25a的观测资料校正模型,计算值与实测值拟合较好,模型具有较高的仿真性和适用性.预测了10a末的地面沉降;当地下水以现有开采量开采时,沉降中心累计达1192.3mm, 10a沉降352.3mm,沉降速率为35.23mma-1;当地下水的开采量在现有开采量的基础上增加10%时,沉降中心累计达1260.8mm, 10a沉降420.8mm,沉降速率为42.08mma-1; 当地下水的开采量在现有开采量的基础上减小10%时,沉降中心累计达1088.7mm, 10a沉降247.9mm,沉降速率为24.79mma-1.增大10%的地下水开采量, 10a地面沉降量增加68.5mm;减少10%的地下水开采量, 10a地面沉降量减少104.4mm.因此,控制地下水开采量是控制地面沉降的有效方法.     

Use of magnetic measures to assess soil redistribution following deforestation in hilly region

Limited information is available about the use of magnetic susceptibility property to determine soil redistribution in hilly areas of the semi-arid regions. This study was conducted to evaluate the use of magnetic properties to determine soil redistribution along a hill slope following deforestation. The study area is located in the Quaternary hilly region of Lordegan district in west Iran. Ten transects were established in two land uses that included natural Querqus forested and cultivated lands. Soil samples were collected at different positions along the slope and magnetic properties (χlf, χhf, SIRM, ARM, and χfd) and selected physico-chemical properties were determined. The results (based on the χfd, SIRM/ARM) showed that the magnetic susceptibly in the calcareous materials is pre-dominantly derived during the pedogenic processes and the superparamagnetic particles which were transported to lower positions of hill slope following deforestation. The results confirmed that this methodology could be applied for monitoring soil redistribution along the slope in calcareous hilly areas in the semi-arid regions.     

Farmer Income Differential in Regions

1 Introduction China’s success in reform and opening up policy for twenty years is regarded as China’s miracles in the world, whereas the income differential widening phenomenon has been the focus of the policymakers and researchers. The typical research of personal income allocation in regions on microeconomic data has been done in China Social Science Research Institution, and by the special income allocation research team’s household investiga- tion, we could get the useful farmer’s i…