Integrative Monitoring Analysis Aiming at the Detection of Spatial and Temporal Trends of Metal Accumulation in Mosses

Goal and Scope. The UNECE heavy metals in Mosses Surveys provide data on the accumulation of metals in naturally growing mosses throughout Europe. Using Germany as an example, this article concentrates on the elaboration and application of methods of data analysis that are necessary for a comprehensive interpretation of spatial and temporal trends in metal accumulation.Methods and Results. The sampling of mosses, and the chemical analysis of Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Ti, V and Zn in 1990, 1995 and 2000 are summarized briefly. The variogram analyses detect distinct autocorrelation structures in the sample data which may consequently be estimated for all sites in Germany without monitoring metal accumulation by means of ordinary kriging. A procedure for the geostatistical detection of spatial outliers was developed and applied and, after the elimination of the spatial outliers, several measurements were seen to indicate an adequate quality of the geostatistical estimations. The cluster analyses of the z-transformed estimation data result in a nominal multi-element index that indicates regional metal accumulation types over time. Percentile statistics serve for computation of an ordinal, scaled, multi-element accumulation index which is spatially differentiated over time in terms of multivariate, statistically defined ecoregions. The integrative statistical analysis reveals, from 1990 to 2000, that the metal accumulation declines up to 80% in some of the ecoregions. Hot spots of metal accumulation are mapped and interpreted by means of metadata analysis.Conclusions. Dot maps depict the spatial structure of the metal accumulation without spatial bias. This information, detailed with respect to metal species and space, should be generalized for better supporting the interpretation. The combination of geostatistical analysis and estimation, percentile and multivariate statistics is suitable for the calculation of indices that serve for a comprehensive mapping of metal accumulation in the ecoregions over time, for quantifying the bias of the surface estimation, and for mapping spatial outliers and hot spots of metal accumulation.     

Drought Monitoring Using Data Mining Techniques: A Case Study for Nebraska, USA

Drought has an impact on many aspects of society. To help decision makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve our understanding of the characteristics and relationships of atmospheric and oceanic parameters that cause drought. In this study, the use of data mining techniques is introduced to find associations between drought and several oceanic and climatic indices that could help users in making knowledgeable decisions about drought responses before the drought actually occurs. Data mining techniques enable users to search for hidden patterns and find association rules for target data sets such as drought episodes. These techniques have been used for commercial applications, medical research, and telecommunications, but not for drought. In this study, two time-series data mining algorithms are used in Nebraska to illustrate the identification of the relationships between oceanic parameters and drought indices. The algorithms provide flexibility in time-series analyses and identify drought episodes separate from normal and wet conditions, and find relationships between drought and oceanic indices in a manner different from the traditional statistical associations. The drought episodes were determined based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Associations were observed between drought episodes and oceanic and atmospheric indices that include the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the Pacific/North American (PNA) index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index. The experimental results showed that among these indices, the SOI, MEI, and PDO have relatively stronger relationships with drought episodes over selected stations in Nebraska. Moreover, the study suggests that data mining techniques can help us to monitor drought using oceanic indices as a precursor of drought.     

中国陕西关中及周边地区近500年来初夏干燥指数序列的重建

本文采用华山东峰、西峰和南峰的华山松树轮宽度差值年表重建了1500年以来中国陕西关中及周边地区的初夏干燥指数序列,对重建序列进行了统计特征分析,并同大尺度大气环流场进行了相关分析。结果表明:华山年表的变化与该地区初夏平均干燥指数序列的变化具有很好的一致性,可用来重建该地区的初夏干燥指数序列;该地区在1502～1511年、1570～1580年以及1807～1814年间的初夏季节存在3次较为严重的干旱;该地区初夏干燥指数变化存在着较为明显的周期特征,其中以13a左右和4a左右的周期最为显著,但周期特征在不同的历史阶段存在着明显的差异;重建序列在1784年前后发生了一次较大幅度的方差变化,而1587年前后的均值突变则表现为干燥指数值的急剧降低;该地区初夏季节的干燥程度可能与前期极涡的中心强度及冷空气活动有关。     

Geomorphic analysis of large alluvial rivers

Geomorphic analysis of a large river presents particular challenges and requires a systematic and organised approach because of the spatial scale and system complexity involved. This paper presents a framework and blueprint for geomorphic studies of large rivers developed in the course of basic, strategic and project-related investigations of a number of large rivers. The framework demonstrates the need to begin geomorphic studies early in the pre-feasibility stage of a river project and carry them through to implementation and post-project appraisal. The blueprint breaks down the multi-layered and multi-scaled complexity of a comprehensive geomorphic study into a number of well-defined and semi-independent topics, each of which can be performed separately to produce a clearly defined, deliverable product. Geomorphology increasingly plays a central role in multi-disciplinary river research and the importance of effective quality assurance makes it essential that audit trails and quality checks are hard-wired into study design. The structured approach presented here provides output products and production trails that can be rigorously audited, ensuring that the results of a geomorphic study can stand up to the closest scrutiny.     

尼泊尔Andhi Khola河研究参照点的识别及确认（英文）

参照条件是开展河流生态学研究的基础,这些条件不受或很少受到人为干扰。为研究尼泊尔Andhi Khola河上一处河坝的生态影响,采用野外快速生物筛分(RFB)法预先划分出2个研究参照点或最少干扰参照点,于2013年1月和2月采集了生物学样品(大型脊椎动物)和物理-化学样品。对大型无脊椎动物区系使用多栖息地采样(MHS)法。通过一些指标对预选的研究点进行了确认,这些指标是:尼泊尔生物评价法(NEPBIOS)、生物监测评价法(BMWP)、兴都库什喜马拉雅生物评价法(HKHBIOS)、Hilsenhoff法(HILSENHOFF),以及国家卫生基金会水质指标法(NSFWQI)。NEPBIOS、HKHBIOS、HILSENHOFF、RFB以及NSFWQI指标预测2个参照点的河水水质都比较好,达到II级水准。只有BMWP/ASPT水质指标预测2个参照点的河水水质都很好,达到I级水准。如此,预选的这2个水质较好的点(II级)被确认为研究参照点。本研究表明,多度量法适用于即将修建水利工程的河流的监测与评价。     

The role of strain partitioning on intermontane basin inception and isolation,External Western Gibraltar Arc

The intermontane Ronda Basin, currently located in the Western Betics External Zones, started as an embayment of the Betic foreland basin during the Tortonian. We have characterized a post-Serravallian, basin-related deformation event that overprinted the former fold-and-thrust belt. Updated structural and kinematic maps allow us to identify NW–SE basinward-dipping normal faults at the southwestern and northeastern boundaries of the basin and NE–SW shortening structures (large-scale folds and reverse faults) affecting both the outcropping basement and partially the basin infill. In order to test the possible tectonic activity of these structures during the last 5 Ma, exhaustive geomorphologic analyses in the Ronda Basin area have been done. This included the qualitative study of relief and drainage network, together with the characterization of quantitative indices (SLk, Smf, V_f and HI). These results obtained from this analysis are coherent with structural data and suggest that the identified post-Serravallian structures were active up to at least 5 Ma. We also conclude that the Ronda Basin was generated by along strike segmentation of the relief in the Western Betics induced by NE–SW (arc-parallel) stretching accompanied with NW–SE shortening. In the NW basin boundary, the strain was partitioned into ENE–WSW dextral strike-slip faults and NE–SW shortening structures, which gave rise to a Messinian transpressive structural high that disconnected the former Ronda Basin from its parental foreland basin.     

珠江口盆地Site4B柱状沉积物中长链烷基二醇和酮醇类化合物的检出及意义

珠江口盆地Site4B沉积物中（65~300 cm）检出了1,15-C30（ω16）和1,15-C32（ω18）烷基二醇和酮醇,总的长链烷基二醇和酮醇含量分别为0.026～4.373 μg/g干沉积物和0.005～1.549 μg/g干沉积物。沉积物剖面上检测到的1,15-C30烷基二醇（-26.6‰±0.9‰）相对于来自陆源高等植物的C30直链烷基醇（-32.8‰±1.5‰）较正的碳同位素特征反映了这类化合物可能不是来自陆源高等植物;同时沉积物中未检出在黄绿藻中相对长链烷基二醇和酮醇更丰富的甾醇,且沉积物浅表层中（0~65 cm）未检出长链烷基二醇和酮醇类化合物,表明现今沉积物中几乎没有黄绿藻的贡献,和沉积物所处的寡营养盐（不适宜藻类生长发育）的陆坡位置相吻合。沉积物中1,15-C30烷基二醇（-24.6‰～-28.4‰）和海洋细菌来源的短链脂肪酸 (-25.5‰～-28.6‰)具有相似的碳同位素组成,表明了海洋细菌是其可靠来源。Site4B沉积物中1,15-C30和1,15-C32烷基酮醇和二醇具有非常好的相关性,表明了它们可能来自相同的生物来源或者来自相关性较好的不同生源,而不是通过对应的二醇氧化生成,因为在65~95 cm的氧化环境中酮醇比例没有明显增高。Site4B沉积物中二醇参数和酮醇参数的变化非常相似,结合含量分布特征反映了古海水温度以及淡水入侵的双重影响,即较高的二醇参数及较高的二醇含量和较低的二醇参数及较低的二醇含量都可能反映了古海水温度是主要影响因素;而较低的二醇参数及较高的二醇含量则可能反映了淡水的侵入是主要影响因素。     

Closed‐form aftershock reliability of damage‐cumulating elastic‐perfectly‐plastic systems

Major earthquakes (i.e., mainshocks) typically trigger a sequence of lower magnitude events clustered both in time and space. Recent advances of seismic hazard analysis stochastically model aftershock occurrence (given the main event) as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with rate that decays in time as a negative power law. Risk management in the post‐event emergency phase has to deal with this short‐term seismicity. In fact, because the structural systems of interest might have suffered some damage in the mainshock, possibly worsened by damaging aftershocks, the failure risk may be large until the intensity of the sequence reduces or the structure is repaired. At the state‐of‐the‐art, the quantitative assessment of aftershock risk is aimed at building tagging, that is, to regulate occupancy. The study, on the basis of age‐dependent stochastic processes, derived closed‐form approximations for the aftershock reliability of simple nonevolutionary elastic‐perfectly‐plastic damage‐cumulating systems, conditional on different information about the structure. Results show that, in the case hypotheses apply, the developed models may represent a basis for handy tools enabling risk‐informed tagging by stakeholders and decision makers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

缺氧环境及地球化学判识标志的探讨--以鄂尔多斯盆地为例

在地质历史时期,古缺氧环境对沉积有机质的数量和质量都具有重要意义.对于优质烃源岩而言较高的有机质数量、较好的有机质质量无疑是主要条件.在综合国内外研究成果的基础上,结合鄂尔多斯盆地奥陶系碳酸盐岩的微量元素和有机质丰度等的研究,着重讨论了微量元素、稳定同位素和有机质等判识缺氧环境的地球化学指标情况,并建立了缺氧环境基本特征及判识指标的综合体系.缺氧沉积中一般为V、Mo、Zn等金属和有机碳富集程度高,DOP＞0.40,V/(V Ni)＞0.45,U/Th＞0.75,δCe＞-0.1,Pr/Ph＜1.研究表明,地球化学-沉积学的综合指标能更有效地判识和反演古缺氧环境.