Impact of physico-geographical factors and climate variability on flow intermittency in the rivers of water surplus zone

Climate change is inevitably altering the hydrological regime of water bodies. The interest in changing behaviour of intermittent rivers is increasing in many countries. This research was focused on intermittent rivers (rivers which naturally, periodically cease to flow) in Lithuania. The purpose of this research was to provide an overview of flow intermittency phenomena according to available data in a historical period and to evaluate the impact of catchment geographical features and climate variability on zero-flow events. The calculated indices of flow intermittency showed that the selected rivers had very different flow regimes. The threshold for the separation of typically intermittent rivers from only occasionally intermittent ones was suggested. Multiple linear regression analysis defined the crucial role of catchment size and watercourse slope on the river cessation process in Lithuania. The applied non-parametric Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test revealed the significance of the relationship between precipitation (in June–September) and zero-flow duration. Flow intermittency phenomena in Lithuanian rivers were linked to a low-frequency teleconnection pattern (SCAND index). A methodology of estimating the relation between river intermittency and large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern (based on SCAND index) was created. The generated regression equations between flow intermittency indices and catchment characteristics might be useful for the estimation of zero-flows in ungauged river catchments. The main aspect of future investigations might be related to forecasting flow intermittency using modern hydrological models and climate scenarios as well as the defined relationships between zero-flow indices and physico-geographical features of river catchments.     

Efficient sparse polynomial chaos expansion methodology for the probabilistic analysis of computationally‐expensive deterministic models

The sparse polynomial chaos expansion (SPCE) methodology is an efficient approach that deals with uncertainties propagation in case of high‐dimensional problems (i.e., when a large number of random variables is involved). This methodology significantly reduces the computational cost with respect to the classical full PCE methodology. Notice however that when dealing with computationally‐expensive deterministic models, the time cost remains important even with the use of the SPCE. In this paper, an efficient combined use of the SPCE methodology and the Global Sensitivity Analysis is proposed to solve such problem. The proposed methodology is firstly validated using a relatively non‐expensive deterministic model that involves the computation of the PDF of the ultimate bearing capacity of a strip footing resting on a weightless spatially varying soil where the soil cohesion and angle of internal friction are modeled by two anisotropic non‐Gaussian cross‐correlated random fields. This methodology is then applied to an expensive model that considers the case of a ponderable soil. A brief parametric study is presented in this case to show the efficiency of the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical guidance on seasonal forecast of Korean dust days over South Korea in the springtime

This study aimed to develop the seasonal forecast models of Korean dust days over South Korea in the springtime. Forecast mode was a ternary forecast (below normal, normal, above normal) which was classified based on the mean and the standard deviation of Korean dust days for a period of 30 years (1981-2010). In this study, we used three kinds of monthly data: the Korean dust days observed in South Korea, the National Center for Environmental Prediction in National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data for meteorological factors over source regions of Asian dust, and the large-scale climate indices offered from the Climate Diagnostic Center and Climate Prediction Center in NOAA. Forecast guidance consisted of two components; ordinal logistic regression model to generate trinomial distributions, and conversion algorithm to generate ternary forecast by two thresholds. Forecast guidance was proposed for each month separately and its predictability was evaluated based on skill scores.     

冰雪灾害对北京城市交通影响的预警评估方法

依据灾害学原理,利用1952—2011年北京历史冰雪灾情资料分析构建了冰雪灾害对北京城市交通运行的预警评估指标体系:发生时间、冰雪强度、交通脆弱度、预警能力和减灾能力,利用层次分析法构建了城市冰雪灾害预警评估模型和评判标准,并对北京历史上38次冰雪灾害事件进行了影响评估及研究分析。研究结果表明:各预警评估因子对冰雪灾害影响贡献的权重分别为冰雪强度0.4404、交通脆弱度0.2789、减灾能力0.1797、发生时间0.05264、预警能力0.0484,建立的预警评估模型准确率达76%。冰雪强度不再是唯一的决定性因子,而是与城市化背景下的多种因素共同决定着冰雪灾害对北京城市交通运行的影响程度。     

An investigation into robust spectral indices for leaf chlorophyll estimation

Quantifying photosynthetic activity at the regional scale can provide important information to resource managers, planners and global ecosystem modelling efforts. With increasing availability of both hyperspectral and narrow band multispectral remote sensing data, new users are faced with a plethora of options when choosing an optical index to relate to their chosen or canopy parameter. The literature base regarding optical indices (particularly chlorophyll indices) is wide ranging and extensive, however it is without much consensus regarding robust indices. The wider spectral community could benefit from studies that apply a variety of published indices to differing sets of species data. The consistency and robustness of 73 published chlorophyll spectral indices have been assessed, using leaf level hyperspectral data collected from three crop species and a variety of savanna tree species. Linear regression between total leaf chlorophyll content and bootstrapping were used to determine the leafpredictive capabilities of the various indices. The indices were then ranked based on the prediction error (the average root mean square error (RMSE)) derived from the bootstrapping process involving 1000 iterative resampling with replacement. The results show two red-edge derivative based indices (red-edge position via linear extrapolation index and the modified red-edge inflection point index) as the most consistent and robust, and that the majority of the top performing indices (in spite of species variability) were simple ratio or normalised difference indices that are based on off-chlorophyll absorption centre wavebands (690–730 nm).     

重庆极端高温指标的对比及其与区域性增暖的关系

对重庆市极端高温指标进行了系统分类,即极值、绝对阈值和相对阈值指标,研究了1961—2008年各种极端高温指标自身变化规律及其与区域性增暖的关系,并对比分析了不同指标间的差异。结果表明,由于极端高温指标的定义不同在反映高温上存在一定差异。利用绝对阈值和极值指标能直观地看出极端高温事件的影响强弱,所以利用年极端最高气温、35 ℃以上高温日数等指标来判别高温影响强弱一直是业务上最常用的方法。相对阈值指标HWDI和WSDI,在定义上受到连续6天的限制,所以在某些高温年份与绝对阈值指标的高温指数差异明显。相对阈值指标(HWDI、WSDI和TX90p)在年内几乎所有季节都可能出现,所以作为年内指标而言,此类指标与年平均气温/最高气温变化的步调更加一致,尤其是TX90p,没有连续定义的限制,它与区域性增暖的关系更为密切。重庆是高温频发区,通过对不同高温指标的对比分析研究,能更好地为业务和科研人员提供参考,同时对极端高温的监测、检测及影响评估具有相当重要的意义。     

Changes in Seasonal Cycle and Extremes in China during the Period 1960–2008

Recent trends in seasonal cycles in China are analyzed, based on a homogenized dataset of daily temperatures at 541 stations during the period 1960–2008. Several indices are defined for describing the key features of a seasonal cycle, including local winter/summer (LW/LS) periods and local spring/autumn phase (LSP/LAP). The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is applied to determine the indices for each year. The LW period was found to have shortened by 2–6 d (10 yr)-1, mainly due to an earlier end to winter conditions, with the LW mean temperature having increased by 0.2°C–0.4°C (10 yr)?1, over almost all of China. Records of the most severe climate extremes changed less than more typical winter conditions did. The LS period was found to have lengthened by 2–4 d (10 yr)?1, due to progressively earlier onsets and delayed end dates of the locally defined hot period. The LS mean temperature increased by 0.1°C–0.2°C (10 yr)-1 in most of China, except for a region in southern China centered on the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In contrast to the winter cases, the warming trend in summer was more prominent in the most extreme records than in those of more typical summer conditions. The LSP was found to have advanced significantly by about 2 d (10 yr)-1 in most of China. Changes in the autumn phase were less prominent. Relatively rapid changes happened in the 1980s for most of the regional mean indices dealing with winter and in the 1990s for those dealing with summer.     

Drought monitoring

Drought detection, monitoring and indices are closely related to its definition. The specific definition chosen for a particular drought analysis will affect the procedures one uses in drought detection and monitoring. The traditional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been proven to be ineffective in regions of predominantly irrigated agriculture.The recently developed ALERT (Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time) system is proposed for use in monitoring the spatial and temporal variations of drought in real time. The ALERT system uses standardized instruments, radio frequencies, software and hardware. It was originally developed as a flash flood waming system by local flood control districts and the National Weather Service. However, now it has expanded to over 100 other uses in the areas of natural and man-made disaster detection and warning. The successful ALERT system indicates the need for the continued development of a national drought monitoring index that is applicable to a wide range of climate, hydrologic and water resource environments.     

Error in polygon overlay processing of geomorphic data

Predictive models for calculating sediment yield and discharge require accurate areal data. Such models may be unrealistic when using digitized data given the potential error involved in compiling and digitizing thematic polygon maps. The estimation of boundary variability for digitized polygon maps of a 0·34 km² area of badlands in Dinosaur Provincial Park, Alberta shows the effects of positional errors introduced during mapping and digitizing processes. Polygon overlay of maps of surface features and slopes produced high frequencies of very small polygons and some unlikely combinations of slopes and surface features, and decreased reliability in areal measurements in the composite map. At an epsilon band width of 0·7 m, a reasonable estimate of boundary variability, 31·7 per cent of the resultant overlaid map can be considered unreliable.     

分形理论及其在地貌学中的应用──分形地貌学研究综述及展望

本文简介了分形的有关基本概念,回顾了分形理论在海岸、流水、喀斯特地貌等多种地貌类型和流域地貌发育的形态研究中,以及在地貌过程研究中的应用的新近成果,并提出了今后分形地貌学研究的五个主要方面.