Forecasting geomagnetic activity

A study of the daily, monthly and annual values of the geomagnetic activity indexAp for 1932 onwards and of the annualaa indices for 1868 onwards indicated that their variations had large random components. Long-term predictions were not possible from time-series extrapolations.     

山西高原六棱山北麓断裂晚第四纪运动学特征初步研究

六棱山北麓断裂是山西地堑系北端张性构造区中的一条控制性断裂，总体走向北东东、倾向北北西，是一条至今仍在活动的倾滑正断裂，控制阳原盆地的形成和发展。在１９９３年和１９９４年的中日合作研究中，我们对断裂分段特征进行了研究，并用Ａｕｔｏ－ｌｅｖｅｌ仪器对这一条断裂晚第四纪不同时期的断错地貌面的位错量进行了测量，对这些地貌面的年龄进行了测定，得到该断裂带晚更新世晚期至全新世时期的平均垂直滑动速率为０．４３～０．７５ｍｍ／ａ。关键词     

大震临震预报的某些实用化指标探讨

本文对我国大陆１９６９年至１９９０年所发生１１次大震的各种前兆临震突变异常和趋势性背景异常运用多阶段综合，多现象综合的方法进行统计分析。研究临震突发性异常的总体特征及其物理解释，归纳各种前铛异常分阶段发展的时，空，强演变规律，临震突变日距发震日时间分布规律，临震实发性异常组合性与同步性规律，探讨大震临震异常综合判断方法，临震预报综合指标和有效性时间预报。     

昆明市地貌条件与城市发展浅论

本文首先分析了昆明能成为大城市的地貌基础及其平面形态与地貌的关系，进而分析了自然地貌类型对城市发展的影响，最后分区论述了地貌条件与城市发展的适宜性，并对今后城市发展的宏观调控方向提出了建设性意见。     

Geomagnetic quiet day selection

Based on published literature and the response to a questionnaire sent to geomagnetic field, ionospheric and magnetospheric researchers, several methods of choosing periods of quiet conditions based on geomagnetic records, as well as other observed parameters, have been identified. Caveats with respect to using geomagnetic indices to select quiet periods include the following:

Differential recovery from the effects of a 100-year storm: Significance of long-term hillslope–channel coupling; Howgill Fells, northwest England

A 100-year storm that occurred in 1982 caused major geomorphic changes in the main valleys of the northern Howgill Fells, northwest England. Those changes, which were documented at that time, involved extensive hillslope gully erosion, alluvial fan sedimentation, and substantial sediment input to the stream systems. The streams channels, which had hitherto been dominantly single-thread, relatively stable channels, responded in many reaches by switching to wide shallow unstable locally braided channels. Over the 20 years since the event there has been a partial recovery to channel geometries similar to the pre-flood conditions, however the degree of recovery contrasts between two neighbouring valleys, Bowderdale and Langdale. The channel of Bowderdale Beck has largely recovered. Flood sedimentation zones have largely stabilised and new single-thread channels have cut through most of the former braided reaches. In some places channel widths remain higher than the pre-flood values, and locally recovery has been modified by a lagged complex response. In Langdale, recovery is only partial with many reaches demonstrating sustained instability over the 20-year post-flood period. Furthermore, the overall spatial patterns suggest some reach-to-reach transfer of coarse sediment, shifting zones of instability downstream. The contrasts between the two valleys appear to relate to different hillslope-to-channel coupling characteristics, themselves inherited from late Pleistocene conditions. These contrasts are also evident in the longer-term (post-1949) history of channel change and stability in these two streams, indicative of the higher intrinsic instability of the Langdale system.     

Temporal variations in the specific stream power and total energy expenditure of a monsoonal river: The Tapi River, India

In this study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the temporal variations in specific stream power and the total energy available for geomorphic work during the monsoon season for the Tapi River, in central India. Continuous daily discharge data (1978–1990), hydraulic geometry equations and the relationship between discharge and water surface slope were used to compute the daily specific stream power (ω) for the Savkheda gauging site in the lower Tapi Basin. The total amount of energy generated by all the monsoon flows was estimated by integrating the area under the ω-graph derived for the monsoon season.The analyses of the 13-year daily discharge data reveal that the average and maximum ω values range from 4–20 W m^{− 2}, and 22–964 W m^{− 2} respectively. Specific stream power duration curve derived for the site shows that for 25% of the time the power per unit area is > 10 W m^{− 2}. Furthermore, unit stream power was found to be above the Williams' [Williams, G.P., 1983. Paleohydrological methods and some examples from Swedish fluvial environments. I. Cobble and boulder deposits. Geografiska Annaler 65A, 227–243.] threshold of pebble-movement (1.5 W m^{− 2}), cobble-movement (16 W m^{− 2}) and boulder-movement (90 W m^{− 2}) for 71%, 15% and 2% of the time, respectively. Computations further indicate that the total amount of energy generated by the flows during the monsoon season is in the range of 37 MJ (deficit monsoon years) to 256 MJ (excess monsoon and/or flood years). Large floods have one-third share in the total monsoon energy expenditure. In the absence of appropriate data on the yearwise geomorphic effects, the geomorphic work was evaluated in terms of the total suspended sediment load transported. The total monsoon sediment load is strongly related to the total monsoon energy. The results of the study indicate that the average flow competence and capacity are remarkably higher during wetter monsoon seasons and flood years than during the shorter and drier monsoon seasons.The present analyses demonstrate that the flows are geomorphically effective for a greater part of the monsoon season, except during the deficient monsoon years, and there is little doubt that large-magnitude floods are effective agents of geomorphic change in monsoonal rivers.     

Perfection and complexity in the lower Brazos River

The “perfect landscape” concept is based on the notion that any specific geomorphic system represents the combined, interacting effects of a set of generally applicable global laws and a set of geographically and historically contingent local controls. Because the joint probability of any specific combination of local and global controls is low, and the local controls are inherently idiosyncratic, the probability of existence of any given landscape is vanishingly small. A perfect landscape approach to geomorphic complexity views landscapes as circumstantial, contingent outcomes of deterministic laws operating in a specific environmental and historical context. Thus, explaining evolution of complex landscapes requires the integration of global and local approaches. Because perfection in this sense is the most important and pervasive form of complexity, the study of geomorphic complexity is not restricted to nonlinear dynamics, self-organization, or any other aspects of complexity theory. Beyond what can be achieved via complexity theory, the details of historical and geographic contexts must be addressed. One way to approach this is via synoptic analyses, where the relevant global laws are applied in specific situational contexts. A study of non-acute tributary junctions in the lower Brazos River, Texas illustrates this strategy. The application of generalizations about tributary junction angles, and of relevant theories, does not explain the unexpectedly high occurrence or the specific instances of barbed or straight junctions in the study area. At least five different causes for the development of straight or obtuse junction angles are evident in the lower Brazos. The dominant mechanism, however, is associated with river bank erosion and lateral channel migration which encroaches on upstream-oriented reaches of meandering tributaries. Because the tributaries are generally strongly incised in response to Holocene incision of the Brazos, the junctions are not readily reoriented to the expected acute angle. The findings are interpreted in the context of nonlinear divergent evolution, geographical and historical contingency, synoptic frameworks for generalizing results, and applicability of the dominant processes concept in geomorphology.     

Intrinsic properties of carbon stars. II. Spectra,colours, and HR diagram of cool carbon stars

On the basis of the effective temperature scale proposed previously for cool carbon stars (Paper I), other intrinsic properties of them are examined in detail. It is shown that the major spectroscopic properties of cool carbon stars, including those of molecular bands due to polyatomic species (SiC₂, HCN, C₂H₂ etc.), can most consistently be understood on the basis of our new effective temperature scale and the theoretical prediction of chemical equilibrium. Various photometric indices of cool carbon stars also appear to be well correlated with the new effective temperatures. Furthermore, as effective temperatures of some 30 carbon stars are now obtained, the calibration of any photometric index is straightforward, and some examples of such a calibration are given. In general, colour index-effective temperature calibrations for carbon stars are quite different from those for K-M giant stars. It is found that the intrinsic (R —I)₀ colour is nearly the same for N-irregular variables in spite of a considerable spread in effective temperatures, and this fact is used to estimate the interstellar reddening of carbon stars. An observational HR diagram of red giant stars, including carbon stars as well as K-M giant stars, is obtained on the basis of our colour index-effective temperature calibrations and the best estimations of luminosities. It is shown that carbon stars and M giant stars are sharply divided in the HR diagram by a nearly vertical line at aboutT _eff = 3200 K (logT _eff = 3.50) and the carbon stars occupy the upper right region of M giant stars (except for some high luminosity, high temperature J-type stars in the Magellanic Clouds; also Mira variables are not considered). Such an observational HR diagram of red giant stars shows rather a poor agreement with the current stellar evolution models. Especially, a more efficient mixing process in red giant stars, as compared with those ever proposed, is required to explain the formation of carbon stars.     

Reappraisal of Asian Summer Monsoon Indices and the Long-Term Variation of Monsoon

The Webster and Yang monsoon index (WYI)-the zonal wind shear between 850 and 200 hPa was calculated and modified on the basis of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. After analyzing the circulation and divergence fields of 150-100 and 200 hPa, however, we found that the 200-hPa level could not reflect the real change of the upper-tropospheric circulation of Asian summer monsoon, especially the characteristics and variation of the tropical easterly jet which is the most important feature of the upper-tropospheric circulation. The zonal wind shear U850-U(150 100) is much larger than U850-U200, and thus it can reflect the strength of monsoon more appropriately. In addition, divergence is the largest at 150 hPa rather than 200 hPa, so 150 hPa in the upper-troposphere can reflect the coupling of the monsoon system. Therefore, WYI is redefined as DHI, i.e., IDH=U850* - U(150 100)*, which is able to characterize the variability of not only the intensity of the center of zonal wind shear in Asia, but also the monsoon system in the upper and lower troposphere. DHI is superior to WYI in featuring the long-term variation of Asian summer monsoon as it indicates there is obvious interdecadal variation in the Asian summer monsoon and the climate abrupt change occurred in 1980. The Asian summer monsoon was stronger before 1980 and it weakened after then due to the weakening of the easterly in the layer of 150-100 hPa, while easterly at 200 hPa did not weaken significantly. After the climate jump year in general, easterly in the upper troposphere weakened in Asia, indicating the weakening of summer monsoon; the land-sea pressure difference and thermal difference reduced, resulting in the weakening of monsoon; the corresponding upper divergence as well as the water vapor transport decreased in Indian Peninsula, central Indo-China Peninsula, North China, and Northeast China, indicating the weakening of summer monsoon as well. The difference between NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis data in studying the intensity and long-term variation of Asian summer monsoon is also compared in the end for reference.