疏勒河流域极端水文事件对极端气候的响应

为了明确疏勒河流域极端水文事件对极端气候事件的响应关系,选取疏勒河流域内及其周边的托勒、敦煌、瓜州、玉门、酒泉、马鬃山等气象站点的气温、降水和蒸发的日值数据,昌马堡水文站的日径流数据,通过趋势分析、滑动平均、主成分分析等方法,分析疏勒河流域极端气候指数、极端水文事件的年际变化规律以及影响极端水文事件的因素,并明确该流域极端洪水年内分布特征。结果表明:疏勒河流域年际气温升高趋势明显,降水量呈波动变化,增加趋势不明显,而蒸发量呈下降的变化趋势。表征高温的极端气温指数呈显著上升趋势,表征低温的极端气温指数呈显著下降趋势,说明疏勒河流域气温增幅明显。极端降水指数呈显著的增加趋势。该流域极端洪水事件和频次呈上升趋势,而极端枯水事件和频次呈下降趋势。极端洪水事件主要受控于极端降水事件,特别是极端降水总量,极端高温事件对极端洪水总量的增加也有影响,而极端枯水事件主要受控于极端低温事件。此外,2000-2016年年最大洪峰流量出现的时间有由8月向7月转变的趋势。     

Analysis of trends in annual streamflow to the Arctic Ocean

There is increasing interest in the magnitude of the flow of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean due to its impacts on the biogeophysical and socio‐economic systems in the north and its influence on global climate. This study examines freshwater flow based on a dataset of 72 rivers that either directly or indirectly contribute flow to the Arctic Ocean or reflect the hydrologic regime of areas contributing flow to the Arctic Ocean. Annual streamflow for the 72 rivers is categorized as to the nature and location of the contribution to the Arctic Ocean, and composite series of annual flows are determined for each category for the period 1975 to 2015. A trend analysis is then conducted for the annual discharge series assembled for each category. The results reveal a general increase in freshwater flow to the Arctic Ocean with this increase being more prominent from the Eurasian rivers than from the North American rivers. A comparison with trends obtained from an earlier study ending in 2000 indicates similar trend response from the Eurasian rivers, but dramatic differences from some of the North American rivers. A total annual discharge increase of 8.7 km³/y/y is found, with an annual discharge increase of 5.8 km³/y/y observed for the rivers directly flowing to the Arctic Ocean. The influence of annual or seasonal climate oscillation indices on annual discharge series is also assessed. Several river categories are found to have significant correlations with the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, no significant association with climate indices is found for the river categories leading to the largest freshwater contribution to the Arctic Ocean.     

1980-2020年山西省极端降水的研究

基于1980-2020年山西省109个气象观测站点的逐日降水资料,选取10个极端降水指数,采用气候倾向率、相关分析、因子分析、R/S预测方法等方法,对山西省极端降水进行了时空分布的研究,以期为山西省的气候变化、生态环境保护、防灾减灾、气象服务工作提供参考依据,结果表明：(1)从时间尺度来看,1980-2020年期间,山西省极端降水的强度和极值都有明显增加,连续干旱日数和连续湿日日数呈下降趋势,其余均表现出不同程度的增加,其中年总降水量增加幅度最明显;从空间尺度来看,年总降水量、降水强度、降水频率、极值均为从西北向东南逐渐增多,空间差异较明显;从各站点的空间分布来看,北部和中部地区的极端事件增加最显著,北部地区的干旱日数仍以增加趋势为主,连续湿日日数气候倾向率的空间差异较大,中部地区站点显著增加,南北部以减少趋势为主;(2)基于相关分析方法表明各极端降水指数(除干旱日数外)与年总降水量都有很好的相关关系,强降水量和极强降水量对年总降水量的贡献值呈现出增加趋势;采用因子分析方法提取了3个公共因子,方差贡献率累计达到了87％,可以看出极端降水强度和降水量指数在对极端降水方面影响较大;利用R/S分析法可以得到年总降水量、中雨日数、大雨日数、最大5日降水量这几个指数未来呈现弱减少趋势,而干旱日数仍为减少趋势,连续湿日日数为持续弱增加趋势。总体看来,山西省极端降水近年来呈现出增加趋势,在空间分布有明显差异。     

Uplift along the western margin of the Deccan Basalt Province: Is there any geomorphometric evidence?

In line with the passive margin landscape evolutionary model in vogue, sustained erosion and long-distance retreat of the Western Ghat escarpment are widely considered to be the results of erosionally-driven isostatic uplift since Tertiary by many workers. Others have postulated or adduced evidence for strong neotectonic activity in the Ghat region. An obvious question in this regard is whether there is any geomorphometric evidence in support of this widespread view? In order to test the hypothesis of ongoing post-rift fexural uplift or neotectonic activity in the western Deccan Basalt Province (DBP), geomorphometric analysis was carried out and commonly used geomorphic indices of active tectonics (GAT) were derived for 30 selected river basins on both sides of the Western Ghat. SRTM-DEM data and ArcGIS were used to derive the indices. Tectonic geomorphic analysis based on five proxy indicators suggests that the differences in GAT indices, both along strike and across the Western Ghat, are statistically insignificant. The index values are nowhere close to the GAT values typically associated with drainage basins affected by active tectonics and deformation. Mapping of the indices reveals lack of discernable trends. The adduced results indicate that the western DBP belongs to the class of relatively low tectonic activity.     

Tectonic geomorphology of the easternmost extension of the Gulf of Corinth (Beotia, Central Greece)

The easternmost sector of the Gulf of Corinth, the Beotia area in Central Greece, is an area with active normal faults located between the two major rift structures of Central Greece, the Gulf of Corinth and the North Gulf of Evia. These active normal faults include WNW to E–W and NE to ENE-trending faults affect the landscape and generate basin and range topography within the Beotia. We study four normal fault zones and drainage basin geometry in the easternmost sector of the Gulf of Corinth to document the impact of active tectonics on the landscape evolution. Fault and drainage geometry are investigated based on detailed field mapping and high-resolution digital elevation models. Tectonic geomorphic analysis using several parameters of active tectonics provides information concerning the relative tectonic activity and fault growth. In order to detect areas of lateral stream migration that could indicate recent tectonic activity, the Transverse Topographic Symmetry Factor and the Asymmetry Factor are used to analyse drainage basin geometry in six large drainage basins and a drainage domain covering the study area. Our results show that vertical motions and tilting associated with normal faulting influence the drainage geometry and its development. Values of stream-gradient indices (S_L) are relatively high close to the fault traces of the studied fault zones suggesting high activity. Mountain-front sinuosity (S_mf) mean values along the fault zones ranges from 1.08 to 1.26. Valley floor width to valley height ratios (V_f) mean values along the studied fault zones range between 0.5 and 1.6. Drainage basin shape (B_S) mean values along the fault zones range from 1.08 to 3.54. All these geomorphic parameters and geomorphological data suggest that the analyzed normal faults are highly active. Lateral fault growth was likely produced by primarily eastward propagation, with the WNW to E–W trending faults being the relatively more active structures.     

Evaluation of forest fire on Madeira Island using Sentinel-2A MSI imagery

A forest fire started on August 8th, 2016 in several places on Madeira Island causing damage and casualties. As of August 10th the local media had reported the death of three people, over 200 people injured, over 950 habitants evacuated, and 50 houses damaged. This study presents the preliminary results of the assessment of several spectral indices to evaluate the burn severity of Madeira fires during August 2016. These spectral indices were calculated using the new European satellite Sentinel-2A launched in June 2015. The study confirmed the advantages of several spectral indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIreXn) using red-edge spectral bands to assess the post-fire conditions. Results showed high correlation between NDVI, GNDVI, NBR and NDVIre1n spectral indices and the analysis performed by Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMSR175), considered as the reference truth. Regarding the red-edge spectral indices, the NDVIre1n (using band B5, 705 nm) presented better results compared with B6 (740 nm) and B7 (783 nm) bands. These preliminary results allow us to assume that Sentinel-2 will be a valuable tool for post-fire monitoring. In the future, the two twin Sentinel-2 satellites will offer global coverage of the Madeira Archipelago every five days, therefore allowing the simultaneous study of the evolution of the burnt area and reforestation information with high spatial (up to 10 m) and temporal resolution (5 days).     

鄱阳湖流域洪水变化特征及气候影响研究

为探讨鄱阳湖流域洪水过程的变化特征和规律,系统分析流域洪水量级、频率、发生时间的变化特征,利用核密度估计分析洪水发生率的非平稳性,运用月频率法评价洪水集聚性特征,并探讨低频气候因子对洪水变化的影响。研究表明：① 鄱阳湖流域各水文站点年、秋季和冬季最大洪水及POT超阈值洪水以增加趋势为主。② 洪水发生率年内集聚性显著,主要集中在4~7月;年际洪水发生次数呈现非平稳泊松分布,洪水发生率出现明显的年际集聚性特征。③ ENSO、IOD对下年洪水量级及洪水发生次数有明显影响,洪水发生次数与年最大洪水量级异常现象通常是ENSO和IOD协同作用结果。     

日本九州岛地震震前电离层TEC异常

采用IGS发布的GIM数据,提出了一种结合滑动时窗法和临近格网点电离层TEC相关性分析法的联合分析方法,研究了震前电离层异常变化与地震的关系。通过分析震区附近5个格网点TEC的异常变化情况,发现震前电离层TEC发生明显异常变化,且格网点之间的TEC序列相关性受地震显著影响;通过分析二维电离层图的TEC异常空间分布,发现震前三天震中附近分别出现6h、12h和6h的异常。最后利用电离层层析的方法,对电离层异常时刻进行了电子密度的反演,进一步分析了电子密度在电离层异常时刻的分布情况。     

基于多角度遥感的植被指数与叶面积指数的线性关系研究

以辐射传输方程PROSAIL为基础,模拟不同观测天顶角和不同叶面积指数(LAI)下的植被冠层光谱。利用模拟的冠层光谱构建3种常用的植被指数,并分析不同观测天顶角下叶面积指数变化对3种植被指数的影响。结果表明,MSR能较好解决由于LAI变化而引起的饱和现象。观测天顶角为-30°时,3种植被指数与叶面积指数的线性关系较30°和0°时好。