基于DERF2.0的月平均温度概率订正预报

国家气候中心第二代月动力延伸模式回算资料的分析表明,二代模式月平均温度预报与观测实况仍然存在较大偏差,模式预报有较大改进空间。本文采用非参数百分位映射法对模式月平均温度预报进行概率订正,该方法基于模式集合平均给出的确定性预报,结合模式回算资料各集合成员计算得到的模式概率密度分布,给出确定性预报在模式概率密度分布中的百分位值,并将百分位值投影到观测资料的概率密度分布中,得到模式预报的概率订正值。对订正前后模式预报的检验评估显示,该订正方案不仅有效降低了模式预报与实况的均方根误差（RMSE）,对月平均温度距平分布的预报技巧也有所改善,不同超前时间模式预报的预测技巧评分（PS）和距平相关系数（ACC）均有提升,同时模式预报误差的大小对订正效果无明显影响。从分月的订正预报结果来看,对夏季各月的温度预测技巧的提升整体高于冬季各月。     

一次暴雨天气过程分析

本文对2013年8月7日发生在黑龙江省中、东部地区的一次分散性暴雨天气过程进行了分析,通过卫星云图、多普勒雷达资料以及动热力条件等情况,详细讨论分析了此次暴雨天气产生的原因。结果表明:本次暴雨过程是中小尺度系统产生的对流性降水,强的热力不稳定层结是中小尺度系统发生发展的背景条件;暴雨以地面暖锋为触发机制,暖锋在黑龙江省南部停留时间长,是本次对流性降水过程持续时间较长的主要原因。     

Hydrogeology of desert springs in the Panamint Range,California, USA: Geologic controls on the geochemical kinetics,flowpaths, and mean residence times of springs

Over 180 springs emerge in the Panamint Range near Death Valley National Park, CA, yet, these springs have received very little hydrogeological attention despite their cultural, historical, and ecological importance. Here, we address the following questions: (1) which rock units support groundwater flow to springs in the Panamint Range, (2) what are the geochemical kinetics of these aquifers, and (3) and what are the residence times of these springs? All springs are at least partly supported by recharge in and flow through dolomitic units, namely, the Noonday Dolomite, Kingston Peak Formation, and Johnnie Formation. Thus, the geochemical composition of springs can largely be explained by dedolomitization: the dissolution of dolomite and gypsum with concurrent precipitation of calcite. However, interactions with hydrothermal deposits have likely influenced the geochemical composition of Thorndike Spring, Uppermost Spring, Hanaupah Canyon springs, and Trail Canyon springs. Faults are important controls on spring emergence. Seventeen of twenty-one sampled springs emerge at faults (13 emerge at low-angle detachment faults). On the eastern side of the Panamint Range, springs emerge where low-angle faults intersect nearly vertical Late Proterozoic, Cambrian, and Ordovician sedimentary units. These geologic units are not present on the western side of the Panamint Range. Instead, springs on the west side emerge where low-angle faults intersect Cenozoic breccias and fanglomerates. Mean residence times of springs range from 33 (±30) to 1,829 (±613) years. A total of 11 springs have relatively short mean residence times less than 500 years, whereas seven springs have mean residence times greater than 1,000 years. We infer that the Panamint Range springs are extremely vulnerable to climate change due to their dependence on local recharge, disconnection from regional groundwater flow (Death Valley Regional Flow System - DVRFS), and relatively short mean residence times as compared with springs that are supported by the DVRFS (e.g., springs in Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge). In fact, four springs were not flowing during this campaign, yet they were flowing in the 1990s and 2000s.     

Climatic changes in areas adjacent to the North Atlantic during the last glacial-interglacial transition (14-9 ka BP): A contribution to IGCP-253

This paper presents a summary of the evidence for climatic changes during the last glacial-interglacial transition (14-9 ka BP) in land areas adjacent to the North Atlantic. It is a synthesis of the results of the 12 regional summaries compiled by contributors to the North Atlantic Seaboard Programme of IGCP-253 that are published separately in this issue of Journal of Quaternary Science. Eighteen palaeotemperature curves are compared and arranged in three transects, one from southern Europe to Spitsbergen, a second from Ireland to Poland, and the third from southern New England to the Labrador-Baffin Shelf area. Ten maps are presented that summarise the synoptic climatic conditions of the region in 500-year time periods. The purpose of the exercise is to examine the extent to which any emerging patterns support the Ruddiman and Mclntyre model of large-scale shifts in the position of the oceanice Polar Front during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Some broad agreement emerges, although the influence of oceanic changes is diminished in areas that lay in close proximity to the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. Attention is drawn to limitations in the compilations and to the potential for improved models in the future.     

Shear-wave polarizations in the Peter the First Range indicating crack-induced anisotropy in a thrust-fault regime

Summary. Three-component seismograms of small local earthquakes recorded in the Peter the First Range of mountains near Garm, Tadzhikistan SSR, display shear-wave splitting similar to that previously observed near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey. The Peter the First Range is in a region of compressional tectonics, whereas the North Anatolian Fault is a comparatively simple strike-slip fault. Detailed analysis of the Turkish records suggests that the splitting is diagnostic of crack-induced anisotropy caused by vertical microcracks aligned parallel to the direction of maximum compression. Preliminary examination of paper records from Garm shows that most shear waves arriving within the shear-wave window display shear-wave splitting, and that the polarizations of leading shear-waves are consistently aligned in a NE/SW direction. The area is complicated and the tectonics are not well-understood, but the NE/SW direction is approximately perpendicular to the compressional axis in many of the fault-plane mechanisms of the earthquakes. These earthquakes are usually at depths between 5 and 12 km, although there are some deeper events nearby.
Parallel shear-wave polarizations, such as those observed, are expected to indicate the strike of nearly vertical parallel microcracks, which would be aligned parallel to the direction of maximum compression. Thus the shear-wave polarizations in the Peter the First Range indicate that the directions of principal stress are reversed in the rock above the earthquake foci where thrust faulting is taking place.     

Tectonic geomorphology of the easternmost extension of the Gulf of Corinth (Beotia, Central Greece)

The easternmost sector of the Gulf of Corinth, the Beotia area in Central Greece, is an area with active normal faults located between the two major rift structures of Central Greece, the Gulf of Corinth and the North Gulf of Evia. These active normal faults include WNW to E–W and NE to ENE-trending faults affect the landscape and generate basin and range topography within the Beotia. We study four normal fault zones and drainage basin geometry in the easternmost sector of the Gulf of Corinth to document the impact of active tectonics on the landscape evolution. Fault and drainage geometry are investigated based on detailed field mapping and high-resolution digital elevation models. Tectonic geomorphic analysis using several parameters of active tectonics provides information concerning the relative tectonic activity and fault growth. In order to detect areas of lateral stream migration that could indicate recent tectonic activity, the Transverse Topographic Symmetry Factor and the Asymmetry Factor are used to analyse drainage basin geometry in six large drainage basins and a drainage domain covering the study area. Our results show that vertical motions and tilting associated with normal faulting influence the drainage geometry and its development. Values of stream-gradient indices (S_L) are relatively high close to the fault traces of the studied fault zones suggesting high activity. Mountain-front sinuosity (S_mf) mean values along the fault zones ranges from 1.08 to 1.26. Valley floor width to valley height ratios (V_f) mean values along the studied fault zones range between 0.5 and 1.6. Drainage basin shape (B_S) mean values along the fault zones range from 1.08 to 3.54. All these geomorphic parameters and geomorphological data suggest that the analyzed normal faults are highly active. Lateral fault growth was likely produced by primarily eastward propagation, with the WNW to E–W trending faults being the relatively more active structures.     

Spatial Variation in Diameter Structures of Forests in Lassen Volcanic National Park,California*

Variation in seedling/sapling densities and stand diameter forms for six coniferous tree species is related to stand structural development and to elevation and topography in Lassen Volcanic National Park, California. Understory density patterns reflect differences in species tolerance; densities decrease with stand development for shade intolerant pines, but increase for shade tolerant firs and mountain hemlock. Pine species exhibit reverse-J diamter structures on recently disturbed sites, and decreaser and random forms elsewhere. More tolerant fir species show topographically mediated patterns of diameter structure, with reverse-J form common on northerly exposures and upland sites, but with decreaser and random forms on more xeric slopes. Interaction among species tolerance, environmental setting, and disturbance history yields a complex mosaic of stand diameter structures in the Lassen landscape.     

What do fault patterns reveal about the latest phase of extension within the Northern Snake Range metamorphic core complex,Nevada, USA?

The Northern Snake Range is a classic example of a metamorphic core complex, Basin-and-Range province, United States. It is composed of a plastically deformed footwall and a brittlely deformed hanging wall, separated by the Northern Snake Range low-angle detachment (NSRD). Brittle deformation, however, is not confined to the hanging wall.This paper focuses on exposures in Cove Canyon, located on the SE flank of the Northern Snake Range, where penetrative, homogeneous faults are well exposed throughout the hanging wall, footwall and NSRD, and overprint early plastic deformation. These late-stage fault sets assisted Eocene-Miocene extension. Detailed analysis of the faults reveals the following: (1) The shortening direction defined by faults is similar to the shortening direction defined by the stretching lineation in the footwall mylonites, indicating that the extensional kinematic history remained unchanged as the rocks were uplifted into the elastico-frictional regime. (2) After ∼17 Ma, extension may have continued entirely within elastic-frictional regime via cataclastic flow. (3) This latest deformation phase may have been accommodated by a single, continuous event. (3) Faults within NSRD boudins indicate that deformation within the detachment zone was non-coaxial during the latest phase of extension.     

小兴安岭“晚古生代”地层的时代与物源：地质与碎屑锆石 U-Pb 年代学证据

本文对出露于小兴安岭的"晚古生代"红山组和黑龙宫组进行了碎屑锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年,旨在准确限定红山组和黑龙宫组的沉积时限,并揭示其物源组成。样品中大多数锆石呈自形—半自形,显示典型的岩浆生长环带或条痕状吸收,暗示其岩浆成因。研究结果显示,采自红山组标准剖面泥板岩中的碎屑锆石42个分析点产生以下年龄峰值:747、807、849、903、956、1 167和1 811 Ma,表明红山组沉积于747 Ma之后;采自伊春地区黑龙宫组泥板岩中的碎屑锆石97个分析点产生以下年龄峰值:700(发生Pb丢失)、805、902、1 764、2 446和2 467Ma,确定黑龙宫组沉积于805Ma之后。近年来在该地区"晚古生代"地层中碎屑锆石的定年结果显示普遍存在561 Ma年龄,鉴于红山组和黑龙宫组中缺乏上述锆石年龄组合,认为研究区的红山组和黑龙宫组的形成时代分别为747~561 Ma和805~561 Ma,时代置于新元古代。基于两组碎屑锆石的年龄频数和区域地质年代学资料的对比分析,两个地层单元中出现大量新元古代岩浆锆石,证明研究区可能存在新元古代岩浆事件,岩浆产物为两组地层提供物源;而中—古元古代碎屑锆石的存在,同时暗示该区沉积时地表或地表浅部应存在更为古老的前寒武纪残片。     

内蒙古大兴安岭地区火山岩型铅锌矿矿产预测

内蒙古自治区已发现的火山岩型铅锌矿(陆相)规模较大,集中分布于大兴安岭地区,与中晚侏罗世火山活动联系密切,已知矿床的深部及外围找矿潜力巨大。依据前人的地质、矿产、物探、化探等资料,采用"火山岩型"预测方法类型,分别以比利亚谷铅锌矿、甲乌拉铅锌矿和扎木钦铅锌矿作为典型矿床,在全区选取比利亚谷、甲乌拉和扎木钦3个预测工作区进行矿产预测。圈定铅锌矿最小预测区109个,其中A级最小预测区18个,B级最小预测区37个,C级最小预测区54个。预测334-1级别Pb+Zn总资源量1732548t,334-2级别Pb+Zn总资源量588930t,334-3级别Pb+Zn总资源量4608682t。可利用的Pb+Zn总资源量为3179267t。反映内蒙古大兴安岭地区中生代火山岩型铅锌矿(陆相)找矿潜力较大。