非均质介质中地下水流动与溶质运移模拟——问题与挑战

对大空间尺度和长时间跨度的地下水流动及污染物质运移进行预测的需求, 使水文地质研究面临异乎寻常的挑战.这些需求来自于对核废料地质储放方法的安全性评价、地下水污染状况评价及其治理方案的选择.流动系统的非均质性是地下水流动及物质运移模拟中最主要的困难之一, 这种困难来自对非均质系统进行特征描述(通过原位观测实现)、概念化及模拟.评述了非均质介质中流动运移模拟的一些重要问题与挑战, 讨论了解决的途径.讨论的主题包括: 动力流动的沟道化, 示踪剂穿透曲线, 裂隙岩石中流体流动的多尺度, 观测的不同尺度, 模拟、预测与非均质性以及系统特征描述和预测性模拟的分析.      

Turbulence Statistics Above And Within Two Amazon Rain Forest Canopies

The turbulence structure in two Amazon rain forestswas characterised for a range of above-canopystability conditions, and the results compared withprevious studies in other forest canopies and recenttheory for the generation of turbulent eddies justabove forest canopies. Three-dimensional wind speedand temperature fluctuation data were collectedsimultaneously at up to five levels inside and abovetwo canopies of 30–40 m tall forests, during threeseparate periods. We analysed hourly statistics, jointprobability distributions, length scales, spatialcorrelations and coherence, as well as power spectraof vertical and horizontal wind speed.The daytime results show a sharp attenuation ofturbulence in the top third of the canopies, resultingin very little movement, and almost Gaussianprobability distributions of wind speeds, in the lowercanopy. This contrasts with strongly skewed andkurtotic distributions in the upper canopy. At night,attenuation was even stronger and skewness vanishedeven in the upper canopy. Power spectral peaks in thelower canopy are shifted to lower frequencies relativeto the upper canopy, and spatial correlations andcoherences were low throughout the canopy. Integrallength scales of vertical wind speed at the top of thecanopy were small, about 0.15 h compared to avalue of 0.28 h expected from the shear lengthscale at the canopy top, based on the hypothesis that theupper canopy air behaves as a plane mixing layer. Allthis suggests that, although exchange is not totallyinhibited, tropical rain forest canopies differ from other forests in that rapid, coherentdownward sweeps do not penetrate into the lowercanopy, and that length scales are suppressed. This isassociated with a persistent inversion of stability inthat region compared to above-canopy conditions. Theinversion is likely to be maintained by strong heatabsorption in the leaves concentrated near thecanopy top, with the generally weak turbulence beingunable to destroy the temperature gradients over thelarge canopy depth.     

Turbulence Characteristics In The Surface Boundary Layer Over The South American Pampa

This paper presents results of turbulence measurementsmade in the south of Brazil in the Pampa region.Data collected at 1Hz are used to calculatestandard deviations of temperature and velocities. Onthe other hand data collected at 10Hz areused to study the behaviour of spectra and cospectraof turbulence in the surface layer. Dimensionless dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and temperature variance are also presented. The frameworkof Monin–Obukhov Similarity theory is used and allresults are compared with other experimentalstudies.     

Magnitude-Intensity Relationships in the Ibero-Magrebhian Region

In this paper we present magnitude (Ms) – magnitude(mb) and magnitude-intensity relationships which areconsidered the most adequate in the Ibero-Maghrebianregion. This work is based on selected samples ofrecently revised events with magnitude mb assigned bythe Instituto Geográfico Nacional (I.G.N.) and Msassigned by I.S.C and N.E.I.C., and isoseismal mapsfrom 142 events. Using these data, we have obtainedone magnitude (Ms) – magnitude (mb) relationship, twomagnitude (mb and Ms) assignment relationships viaepicentral intensity (I₀), and ten magnitude (mb andMs) assignments relationships via macroseismicinformation: four using Ambraseys' methodology (1985)and six using the isoseismal area of degree III, IV and VI.According to the obtained results it could be concluded that historical magnitude assignment with lesser uncertainties are those obtained via macroseismic information using magnitude-intensity relationships with Ambraseys' methodology (1985). The magnitude-isoseismal area assignment relationships have, in most cases, great differences depending on the degree of the isoseismal area used. Magnitude assignments via epicentral intensity have the highest uncertainties. Geographic regionalization of the relationshipshas been studied but the highest correlations and statistical significance are obtained when we fit all the Ibero-Maghrebian region data.Finally we have used the results obtained in this workto assign magnitude to some important historicalearthquakes in the Ibero-Maghrebian region: the 1755Lisbon earthquake, the 1680 Málaga earthquake, the1829 Torrevieja earthquake and the 1884 Arenas del Reyearthquake. According to our relationships andmethodology we have assigned an Ms value of 9.3 ±0.6 to the 1755 Lisbon earthquake (its mb magnitudecannot be estimated due to the saturation of the mbscale), an mb value of 6.3 ±0.4 and an Ms valueof 6.9 ± 0.6 to the 1829 Torrevieja earthquake, anmb value of 6.2 ± 0.4 and an Ms value of 6.4 ±0.6 to the 1680 Málaga earthquake and an mb valueof 6.1 ± 0.4 and an Ms value of 6.5 ± 0.6 tothe 1884 Arenas del Rey earthquake.     

甘肃春季沙尘暴环流特征及其时间尺度诊断分析

根据43a甘肃春季沙尘暴日数距平序列选取了甘肃春季沙尘暴多发年和少发年。对甘肃春季沙尘暴多发年和少发年前期冬季(12月至翌年2月)和同期春季(3~5月)500hPa环流距平场合成结果表明, 前期冬季东亚大槽、同期春季蒙古气旋是影响沙尘暴发生多少的主要系统。西风指数和东亚北风指数计算结果表明, 沙尘暴多发年与少发年指数差异明显, 沙尘暴与冬季风联系紧密。甘肃春季沙尘暴小波变换分析, 清楚地反映沙尘暴不同频域的变化特征及其交替作用; 不同频域小波系数变化说明21世纪初沙尘暴将趋于增加。     

受致灾气旋影响的不同规模等级城市直接经济损失特征

本文将造成直接经济损失的热带气旋定义为致灾气旋。依据城区常住人口,将我国城市划分为小城市、中等城市、大城市三种规模等级,基于1984—2019年热带气旋灾情和路径数据筛选出致灾气旋,分析我国城市的致灾气旋频次、强度,并研究致灾气旋造成的不同规模城市直接经济损失变化。主要结论为:(1)1984—2019年影响我国城市的致灾气旋为7.7个·a^-1,呈微弱下降趋势,而强台风和超强台风的发生频次呈显著增加趋势(α=0.05显著水平),30°N以南城市频次整体比北部高;(2)由于致灾气旋影响范围增加,暴露于不同强度致灾气旋的城市个数呈增加趋势,其中暴露于强台风的城市个数增速最快,约为2.0个/(10 a);致灾气旋影响城市个数增加以及城市经济快速发展,使得暴露于致灾气旋影响范围内的经济总量迅速增加,以大城市经济暴露度(占比81.7%)的增速最快(402.6亿元·a^-1);(3)1984—2019年致灾气旋造成的城市直接经济损失约为262.3亿元·a^-1(以2019年市值),呈增加趋势;城市经济快速发展和高强度致灾气旋频次增加的共同作用下,城市经济损失占我国致灾气旋经济损失的比重从30.0%增加到63.3%。大城市资产财富集中,且多位于沿海地区,致灾气旋发生频次较多,经济损失占比最大(为51.4%),增速最快(为5.2亿元·a^-1)。     

非线性弹性地基上矩形薄板的主参数共振

分析非线性弹性地基上受参数激励小挠度矩形薄板的主参数共振问题,由冯卡门方程和伽辽金方法得到系统的非线性振动方程,它是杜分-马休型方程,应用非线性振动的多尺度法得到平均方程。数值计算结果表明：阻尼系数、地基系数、几何参数对主参数共振曲线影响明显。     

构造应力场转换的成矿地球化学响应

以剪切带型金矿为例,基于对中国东部胶东西北部地区及其典型金矿田、金矿床构造应力场与成矿地球化学场的详细研究结果,初步阐释了它们在多重时-空间尺度上的耦合关系。区域尺度上,应力极值区不利于成矿,金矿床就位于应力梯级带,尤其是不同方向应力梯级带的交汇部位。矿田尺度上,成矿物质有从应力高值区向低值区运移的趋势,成矿主期应力梯度的增大有利于成矿元素进一步浓集,应力梯级的强烈变化地段(或时段)往往形成金属元素的大量堆积。矿床尺度上,成矿物质的运移受不同方向剪应力梯级带的叠加影响,金属元素就位于NE和NW向应力梯级带交汇部位缓坡带一侧的次级梯级带之上。多重时-空尺度成矿动力学的深入研究,将可能揭示出这种非线性效应的丰富内涵。     

基于均一化资料的广州近百年气温变化特征研究

利用RHtest软件结合台站元数据对广州1908—2019年平均气温进行非均一性检验和订正,结果显示在1912、1928、1942、1988、1995、2004和2010年有7个显著的非均一间断点,订正后升温速率为1.39℃/(100 a),较订正前显著增加,具有准50 a和准3 a的显著周期。运用DB16正交小波分析其多时间尺度变化特征,结果显示方差贡献最大的是趋势分量,其次是准3 a和准6 a周期分量。趋势分量从20世纪40年代开始呈现持续的升温趋势;20世纪80年代中期至20世纪末的快速增暖是准50 a和准20 a周期分量的上升期叠加于趋势分量的结果;1998—2014年增暖停滞特征是准50 a、准20 a和准10 a这3个年代际周期分量的降温位相叠加在趋势分量上引起的。     

基于时空不确定性的对流尺度集合预报效果评估检验

针对对流尺度天气系统的高度非线性特征和高分辨率模式预报结果存在时、空不确定性现象,以及当前邻域概率法主要考虑高分辨率预报结果的空间位移误差,而不能有效解决预报结果存在时间超前与滞后问题,将时间因素引入到邻域概率法中,结合一次强飑线过程进行对流尺度集合预报试验,并基于改进后的新型邻域概率法与分数技巧评分,对降水预报进行了不同时、空尺度的效果评估检验。结果表明:（1）邻域集合概率法和概率匹配平均法在极端降水的分数技巧评分远高于传统集合平均,弥补了集合平均对极端降水预报能力偏低的缺陷。（2）对于此类飑线过程的对流尺度天气系统而言,邻域半径为15—45 km的空间尺度能够改善降水位移误差的空间不确定性,并使其预报效果达到最优,其中15—30 km的邻域半径对于尺度更小的大量级降水事件预报能力更强。（3）对流尺度降水预报考虑时间尺度与降水强度存在着对应关系,不同时间尺度可以捕获到不同量级降水的时间不确定性。同时,时间尺度与空间尺度对于降水预报效果的影响是相互关联的。（4）改进的邻域概率法能够同时体现高分辨率模式预报结果在对流尺度降水事件上存在的时、空不确定性,实现了对流尺度降水在时、空尺度上的综合评估,并能为不同量级降水提供与其时、空尺度相匹配的概率预报结果。