Seasonal Short‐Term Prediction of Dissolved Oxygen in Rivers via Nature‐Inspired Algorithms

This study challenges the use of three nature‐inspired algorithms as learning frameworks of the adaptive‐neuro‐fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) machine learning model for short‐term modeling of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. Particle swarm optimization (PSO), butterfly optimization algorithm (BOA), and biogeography‐based optimization (BBO) are employed for developing predictive ANFIS models using seasonal 15 min data collected from the Rock Creek River in Washington, DC. Four independent variables are used as model inputs including water temperature (T), river discharge (Q), specific conductance (SC), and pH. The Mallow's Cp and R² parameters are used for choosing the best input parameters for the models. The models are assessed by several statistics such as the coefficient of determination (R²), root‐mean‐square error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, mean absolute error, and the percent bias. The results indicate that the performance of all‐nature‐inspired algorithms is close to each other. However, based on the calculated RMSE, they enhance the accuracy of standard ANFIS in the spring, summer, fall, and winter around 13.79%, 15.94%, 6.25%, and 12.74%, respectively. Overall, the ANFIS‐PSO and ANFIS‐BOA provide slightly better results than the other ANFIS models.     

High-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle aeromagnetic surveys for mineral exploration targets

Recent advancements in geophysical exploration have been realized through reliably integrating unmanned aerial vehicle platforms with lightweight, high-resolution magnetometer payloads. Unmanned aerial vehicle aeromagnetic surveys can provide a contemporary data product between the two end-members of coverage and resolution attained using manned airborne and terrestrial magnetic surveys. This new data product is achievable because unmanned aerial vehicle platforms can safely traverse with magnetometer payloads at flight elevations closer to ground targets than manned airborne surveys, while also delivering an increased coverage rate compared to walking conventional terrestrial surveys. This is a promising new development for geophysical and mineral exploration applications, especially in variable terrains. A three-dimensional unmanned aerial vehicle aeromagnetic survey was conducted within the Shebandowan Greenstone Belt, northwest of Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada, in July 2017. A series of two-dimensional grids (∼500 m × 700 m) were flown at approximate elevations of 35, 45 and 70 m above ground level using a Dà-Jiāng Innovations multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicle (S900) and a GEM Systems, Inc., Potassium Vapour Magnetometer (GSMP-35U). In total, over 48 line-km of unmanned aerial vehicle aeromagnetic data were flown with a line spacing of 25 m. The collected aeromagnetic data were compared to a regional heliborne aeromagnetic survey flown at an elevation of approximately 85 m above the terrain, with a line spacing of 100 m, as well as a follow-up terrestrial magnetic survey. The first vertical derivative of the gathered unmanned aerial vehicle total magnetic field data was calculated both directly between each of the different flight elevations, and indirectly by calculating the values predicted using upward continuation. This case study demonstrates that low flight elevation unmanned aerial vehicle aeromagnetic surveys can reliably collect industry standard total magnetic field measurements at an increased resolution when compared to manned airborne magnetic surveys. The enhanced interpretation potential provided by this approach also aided in delineating structural controls and hydrothermal fluid migration pathways (a pair of adjacent shear zones) related to gold mineralization on site. These structural features were not clearly resolved in the regional manned airborne magnetic data alone, further demonstrating the utility of applying high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle aeromagnetic surveys to mineral exploration applications. The conclusions and interpretations drawn from the unmanned aerial vehicle aeromagnetic data, coupled with historical data, were applied to make a new gold mineralization discovery on the site, assayed at 15.7 g/t.     

Reliability‐based control algorithms for nonlinear hysteretic systems based on enhanced stochastic averaging of energy envelope

Current reliability‐based control techniques have been successfully applied to linear systems; however, incorporation of stochastic nonlinear behavior of systems in such control designs remains a challenge. This paper presents two reliability‐based control algorithms that minimize failure probabilities of nonlinear hysteretic systems subjected to stochastic excitations. The proposed methods include constrained reliability‐based control (CRC) and unconstrained reliability‐based control (URC) algorithms. Accurate probabilistic estimates of nonlinear system responses to stochastic excitations are derived analytically using enhanced stochastic averaging of energy envelope proposed previously by the authors. Convolving these demand estimates with capacity models yields the reliability of nonlinear systems in the control design process. The CRC design employs the first‐level and second‐level optimizations sequentially where the first‐level optimization solves the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and the second‐level optimization searches for optimal objective function parameters to minimize the probability of failure. In the URC design, a single optimization minimizes the probability of failure by directly searching for the optimal control gain. Application of the proposed control algorithms to a building on nonlinear foundation has shown noticeable improvements in system performance under various stochastic excitations. The URC design appears to be the most optimal method as it reduced the probability of slight damage to 8.7%, compared with 11.6% and 19.2% for the case of CRC and a stochastic linear quadratic regulator, respectively. Under the Kobe ground motion, the normalized peak drift displacement with respect to stochastic linear quadratic regulator is reduced to 0.78 and 0.81 for the URC and CRC cases, respectively, at comparable control force levels. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of rocking podium structures

A rocking podium structure is a class of structures consisting of a superstructure placed on top of a rigid slab supported by free‐standing columns. The free‐standing columns respond to sufficiently strong ground motion excitation by uplifting and rocking. Uplift works as a mechanical fuse that limits the forces transmitted to the superstructure, while rocking enables large lateral displacements. Such ‘soft‐story’ system runs counter to the modern seismic design philosophy but has been used to construct several hundred buildings in countries of the former USSR following Polyakov's rule‐of‐thumb guidelines: (i) that the superstructure behave as a rigid body and (ii) that the maximum lateral displacement of the rocking podium frame be estimated using elastic earthquake displacement response spectra. The objectives of this paper are to present a dynamic model for analysis of the in‐plane seismic response of rocking podium structures and to investigate if Polyakov's rule‐of‐thumb guidelines are adequate for the design of such structures. Examination of the rocking podium structure response to analytical pulse and recorded ground motion excitations shows that the rocking podium structures are stable and that Polyakov's rule‐of‐thumb guidelines produce generally conservative designs. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post‐fire hydrological response and suspended sediment transport of a terraced Mediterranean catchment

In July 2013, a wildfire severely affected the western part of the island of Mallorca (Spain). During the first three post‐fire hydrological years, when the window of disturbance tends to be more open, the hydrological and sediment delivery processes and dynamics were assessed in a representative catchment intensively shaped by terracing that covered 37% of its surface area. A nested approach was applied with two gauging stations (covering 1.2 km² and 4.8 km²) built in September 2013 that took continuous measurements of rainfall, water and sediment yield. Average suspended sediment concentration (1503 mg L^?1) and the maximum peak (33 618 mg L^?1) were two orders of magnitude higher than those obtained in non‐burned terraced catchments of Mallorca. This factor may be related to changes in soils and the massive incorporation of ash into the suspended sediment flux during the most extreme post‐fire event; 50 mm of rainfall in 15 min, reaching an erosivity of 2886 MJ mm ha^?1 h^?1. Moreover, hysteretic counter‐clockwise loops were predominant (60%), probably related to the increased sensitivity of the landscape after wildfire perturbation. Though the study period was average in terms of total annual precipitation (even higher in intensities), minimal runoff (2%) and low sediment yield (6.3 t km^?2 y^?1) illustrated how the intrinsic characteristics of the catchment, i.e. calcareous soils, terraces and the application of post‐fire measures, limited the hydrosedimentary response despite the wildfire impact. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relationship between habitat complexity and emergence time in damselflies

Environments with higher complexity harbor a greater biodiversity and can directly influence on certain behaviors of aquatic animals. Here, we tested whether habitat complexity predicts odonate larvae emergence and mortality rates by rearing larvae in aquaria with or without artificial complexity. The results show a shorter emergence time in more complex environments, and a higher mortality rate on less complex habitats.     

Improved evaluation of inelastic displacement demands for short‐period masonry structures

This work discusses the simplified estimation of earthquake‐induced nonlinear displacement demands as required by nonlinear static procedures, with particular attention on short‐period masonry structures. The study focuses on systems with fundamental periods between 0.1 and 0.5 s, for which inelastic amplification of the elastic displacement demand is more pronounced; hysteretic force‐displacement relationships characteristic of masonry structures are adopted, because these structures are more commonly found within the considered period range. Referring to the results of nonlinear dynamic analyses of single‐degree‐of‐freedom oscillators, some limitations of the Eurocode 8 and Italian Building Code formulations are first discussed, then an improved equation is calibrated that relates inelastic and elastic displacement demands. Numerical values of the equation parameters are obtained, considering the amount of hysteretic energy dissipation associated with various damage mechanisms observed in masonry structures. Safety factors are also calculated to determine several percentiles of the displacement demand. It is shown that the proposed equation can be extended to more dissipative systems. Finally, the same formulation is adapted to the estimation of seismic displacements when elastic analysis procedures are employed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

节点地震采集系统发展现状

地震仪器是地球物理勘探的核心装备,伴随地震勘探技术的进步,几年即可推出一代新设备。近年来,随着节点技术的发展,节点地震采集系统逐步应用在各个领域,且效果较好。结合地球物理勘探技术的发展需求,介绍主流陆地节点地震仪器的特点与应用,分析存在的问题及改进方向,希望促进对节点仪器的了解和应用。     

地震预报的科学哲学与方法论探索——50年回眸与前瞻

地震预报是具高度复杂性的世界科学难题。以我国50余年实践中的问题为导向,以其揭示的自然现象为依托,从科学哲学及方法论视角,回顾经验归纳、还原论动力学、归纳-演绎和复杂动力系统等方法。通过汶川、唐山等震例探讨认识论因素在预测预报中的重要作用。进入地球系统科学新时期,建议以大陆变形复杂动力系统演化及其地震行为、经验与数值预测桥梁的图像（斑图）动力学作为地震预报的自然观和方法论。它们虽不完善,但更贴近大自然的整体性、进化性和非线性本质,又能包容连接多种思路与方法;既具前瞻性,又具可操作性;地震具可预测性,又具预测的不完全确定性;预测→预报→减轻灾害尚存在颇大的可创新空间。