地震预报的科学哲学与方法论探索——50年回眸与前瞻

地震预报是具高度复杂性的世界科学难题。以我国50余年实践中的问题为导向,以其揭示的自然现象为依托,从科学哲学及方法论视角,回顾经验归纳、还原论动力学、归纳-演绎和复杂动力系统等方法。通过汶川、唐山等震例探讨认识论因素在预测预报中的重要作用。进入地球系统科学新时期,建议以大陆变形复杂动力系统演化及其地震行为、经验与数值预测桥梁的图像（斑图）动力学作为地震预报的自然观和方法论。它们虽不完善,但更贴近大自然的整体性、进化性和非线性本质,又能包容连接多种思路与方法;既具前瞻性,又具可操作性;地震具可预测性,又具预测的不完全确定性;预测→预报→减轻灾害尚存在颇大的可创新空间。     

Process and Contextual Factors Supporting Action-Oriented Learning: A Thematic Synthesis of Empirical Literature in Natural Resource Management

Despite a long-term focus on learning in natural resource management (NRM), it is still debated how learning supports sustainable real-world NRM practices. We offer a qualitative in-depth synthesis of selected scientific empirical literature (N?=?53), which explores factors affecting action-oriented learning. We inductively identify eight key process-based and contextual factors discussed in this literature. Three patterns emerge from our results. First, the literature discusses both facilitated participation and self-organized collaboration as dialogical spaces, which bridge interests and support constructive conflict management. Second, the literature suggests practice-based dialogs as those best able to facilitate action and puts a strong emphasis on experimentation. Finally, not emphasized in existing reviews and syntheses, we found multiple evidence about certain contextual factors affecting learning, including social-ecological crises, complexity, and power structures. Our review also points at important knowledge gaps, which can be used to advance the current research agenda about learning and NRM.     

Integrated 3D forward stratigraphic and petroleum system modeling of the Levant Basin,Eastern Mediterranean

The Eastern Mediterranean Levant Basin is a proven hydrocarbon province with recent major gas discoveries. To date, no exploration wells targeted its northern part, in particular the Lebanese offshore. The present study assesses the tectono‐stratigraphic evolution and related petroleum systems of the northern Levant Basin via an integrated approach that combines stratigraphic forward modeling and petroleum systems/basin modeling based on the previous published work. Stratigraphic modeling results provide a best‐fit realisation of the basin‐scale sedimentary filling, from the post‐rift Upper Jurassic until the Pliocene. Simulation results suggest dominant eastern marginal and Arabian Plate sources for Cenozoic siliciclastic sediments and a significant contribution from the southern Nilotic source mostly from Lower Oligocene to Lower Miocene. Basin modeling results suggest the presence of a working thermogenic petroleum system with mature source rocks localised in the deeper offshore. The generated hydrocarbons migrated through the deep basin within Jurassic and Cretaceous permeable layers towards the Latakia Ridge in the north and the Levant margin and offshore topographic highs. Furthermore, the basin model indicates a possibly significant influence of salt deposition during Messinian salinity crisis on formation fluids. Ultimately, the proposed integrated workflow provides a powerful tool for the assessment of petroleum systems in underexplored areas.     

受正弦扰动的线性系统的无静差控制

研究线性系统在正弦扰动下的扰动抑制问题。对于一类受正弦扰动的n阶线性系统,提出了一种具有二阶动态特性的状态反馈控制算法。设计的动态反馈控制律结构由两部分构成。首先利用内模原理,在控制器中嵌入了正弦扰动的模态矩阵,实现了闭环系统的无静差扰动抑制。然后通过设计控制器中的n+2个参数,使闭环系统的极点实现任意配置,从而保证了闭环系统的指数渐近稳定性。数值仿真算例说明了控制策略的有效性。     

川西藏东板块构造体系及特提斯地质演化

川西藏东可划分为巴颜喀拉、羌塘和拉萨3个板块构造体系。每个体系由结合带、岛弧褶皱带、弧后盆地褶皱带和盆后隆起组成。它们是在晚二叠世冈瓦纳古陆和劳亚古陆沿巴塘拼合带碰撞拼合的基础上，自ＮＥ而ＳＷ经历了三叠纪巴颜喀拉板块构造体系的形成、株罗纪羌塘板块构造体系的形成和白垩纪拉萨板块构造体系的形成以及新生代以来陆－陆碰撞造山和高原隆升而逐渐形成的。     

深水半潜式平台张拉锚泊系统失效分析

针对深水半潜式平台在极端工况下张拉锚泊系统失效情况,基于板锚失效上拔过程中位移与承载力的关系曲线,提出在AQWA软件中用非线性锚缆模拟板锚走锚过程的方法,对深水半潜式平台张拉锚泊系统在百年一遇工况下断锚、走锚情况的平台响应、锚缆拉锚力及最大缆张力进行分析。研究表明:断锚时各锚链拉力瞬变,平台迅速发生大距离偏移;走锚时随着板锚的拔出各锚链上的拉力逐渐增大,平台位置逐渐偏移,最后达到平衡状态。单缆断锚时,迎浪向5号锚缆拉力最大;单缆断锚且单锚走锚时,3、6号锚缆拉锚力最大。失效缆超过一根时,平台偏移和单缆最大缆张力均超出规范要求,同时其它锚缆最大拉锚力极有可能出现超过板锚极限承载力的情况,最终造成整个锚泊系统破坏。     

Stationary magnetospheric convection on November 24, 1981. 2.Small-scale structures in the dayside cusp/cleft

A case study of the dayside cusp/cleft region during an interval of stationary magnetospheric convection (SMC) on November, 24, 1981 is presented, based on detailed measurements made by the AUREOL-3 satellite. Layered small-scale field-aligned current sheets, or loops, superimposed to a narrow V-shaped ion dispersion structure, were observed just equatorward from the region of the “cusp proper”. The equatorward sheet was accompanied by a very intense and short (less than 1 s) ion intensity spike at 100 eV. No major differences were noted of the characteristics of the LLBL, or “boundary cusp”, and plasma mantle precipitation during this SMC period from those typical of the cusp/cleft region for similar IMF conditions. Simultaneous NOAA-6 and NOAA-7 measurements described in Despirak et al. were used to estimate the average extent of the “cusp proper” (defined by dispersed precipitating ions with the energy flux exceeding 10⁻³ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹) during the SMC period, as ≈0.73∼ ILAT width, 2.6–3.4 h in MLT, and thus the recently merged magnetic flux, 0.54–0.70 × 10⁷ Wb. This, together with the average drift velocity across the cusp at the convection throat, ≈0.5 km s⁻¹, allowed to evaluate the cusp merging contribution to the total cross-polar cap potential difference, ≈33.8–43.8 kV. It amounts to a quite significant part of the total cross-polar cap potential difference evaluated from other data. A “shutter” scenario is suggested for the ion beam injection/penetration through the stagnant plasma region in the outer cusp to explain the pulsating nature of the particle injections in the low- and medium-altitude cusp region.     

On the Use of Seismic Detectors as Monitoring and Warning Systems for Debris Flows

Debris flows constitute a major threat forseveral urban settlements located on the fans ofmountain catchments and for other infrastructures thatinteract with these fans, particularly highways andmotorways. Often structural measures such as theconstruction and maintenance of deposition basins,check dams, channel linings are both too expensive andnot capable of completely guaranteeing the safety forinhabitants of villages and users of infrastructuresaffected by debris flows. Therefore the search offunctional, reliable and possibly not expensivewarning systems should be pursued to increase theavailable tools to face this often devastating kind ofphenomenon. In this paper the use of seismic detectorsfor the determination of a debris flow occurrence ina torrent before its arrival on the fan will bediscussed, together with their potential use asmonitoring and warning systems. In 1995 a set of fourseismic detectors was placed at a distance of aboutone hundred meters from each other along a straightchannel reach of a debris flow prone torrent locatedon the Eastern Italian Alps. The purpose, in a firstphase of the research, was mainly to verify whichinformation could be obtained through this type ofdevice on the occasion of a debris flow occurrence. On5 July 1995, 22 June and 8 July 1996 three debrisflows were recorded by this seismic network: the datathat have been collected will be presented andconveniently processed for their interpretation. Theresults that have been obtained show that the passageof a debris flow in a torrent can be clearlyidentified using seismic devices placed at a safedistance from the channel bed and that in some casesa velocity estimation of the flowing mass is alsopossible through the processing of the seismic data.     

地质图形处理系统设计

介绍了地质图形计算机处理系统的系统功能、系统结构、图形数据库结构以及图形生成与编辑;讨论了在开发地质图形计算机辅助设计或绘图系统时,应如何体现专业特点,如何在数据中表达地质现象的地层和构造意义,如何在地质模型建立中融入专业人员的地质背景知识,以及怎样设计出实际有效的地质图形处理软件系统等问题。      

欧亚500 hPa环流、雪盖和中国降水量3—4年耦合振荡

{{@ convertAbstractHtml(article.abstractinfoCn, "cn")}}   {{if article.graphicalAbstractinfoCn && article.graphicalAbstractinfoCn != ""}}{{@ article.graphicalAbstractinfoCn}}{{/if}}