Planetary migration to large radii

There is evidence for the existence of massive planets at orbital radii of several hundred au from their parent stars where the time-scale for planet formation by core accretion is longer than the disc lifetime. These planets could have formed close to their star and then migrated outwards. We consider how the transfer of angular momentum by viscous disc interactions from a massive inner planet could cause significant outward migration of a smaller outer planet. We find that it is in principle possible for planets to migrate to large radii. We note, however, a number of effects which may render the process somewhat problematic.     

Glacier inventory of the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap in the Southern Andes and glacier changes observed during recent decades

The Gran Campo Nevado (GCN) forms an isolated ice cap on the Península Muñoz Gamero (PMG) located 200 km to the south of the Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI). We present a glacier inventory of the GCN made up by 27 drainage basins (in total 199.5 km²) and other small cirque and valley glaciers of the southern part of PMG (in total 53 km²). The glacier inventory is based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and ortho-photos. Contour lines from maps, relief information derived from Landsat TM satellite imagery from 1986 and 2002 and stereoscopic data from aerial photos were combined in a knowledge-based scheme to obtain a DEM of the area. A digital ortho-photo map based on aerial photos from 1998 and several ortho-photos based on aerial photos from 1942 and 1984 could be produced from the initial DEM. A geographical information system (GIS) served to outline the extent of the present glaciation. All major glaciers of the GCN show a significant glacier retreat during the last 60 yr. Some of the outlet glaciers lost more than 20% of their total area during this period. Overall glacier retreat amounts to 2.8% of glacier length per decade and the glacier area loss is 2.4% per decade in the period from 1942 to 2002. We hypothesise that GCN glaciers may have reacted faster and more synchronously with the observed warming trend during recent decades when compared with the SPI.     

Reconstruction of fire spread within wildland fire events in Northern Eurasia from the MODIS active fire product

Russian boreal forests have been reshaped by wildland fire for millennia. While fire is a natural component of boreal ecosystems, it impacts various aspects of the environment and affects human well-being. Often fires occur over large remote areas with limited access, which makes their ground-based observation difficult. A significant progress has been made in mapping burned area from satellite imagery, which provides consistent and fairly unbiased estimates of fire impact on areas of interest at multiple scales. Although the information provided by burned area products is highly important, the spatio-temporal dynamics of individual fire events and their impact are less known. In high northern latitudes of Northern Eurasia, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) makes up to four daily observations from each of the Terra and Aqua satellites providing consistent data on fire development with high temporal frequency. Here we introduce an approach to reconstruct the development of fire events based on active fire detections from MODIS. Fire Spread Reconstruction (FSR) provides a means for characterization of fire occurrence over large territories from remotely sensed data. Individual fire detections are clustered within a GIS environment based on a set of rules determining proximity between fire observations in space and time. FSR determines the number of fire events, their approximate size, duration, and fire spread rate and allows for the analysis of fire occurrence and spread as a function of vegetation, fire season, fire weather and other parameters. FSR clusters were compared to burned scars mapped from Landsat7/ETM+ imagery over Yakutia (Russia). While some smaller burn scars were found to be formed through a continuous burning of a single fire event, large burned areas in Siberia were created by a constellation of fire events incorporating over 100 individual fire clusters. Geographic regions were found to have a stronger influence on the rates of fire activity in the area compared to vegetation zones. In addition, fire spread rates do not directly correlate with the intensity of a given fire season. FSR is also used to identify the points of ignition for individual fire events in spatio-temporal domain for fire danger and fire threat modeling. This approach presents another step towards the more complete characterization of fire events from remotely sensed data.     

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model for natural channels

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model (FDFRM) for natural channels is presented, wherein the flood wave can be approximated to a monoclinal wave. This study is based on modification of an earlier published work by the same authors, where the nature of the wave was of gravity type. Momentum equation of the dynamic wave model is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. Hence, the FDFRM gets rid of the assumptions associated with the momentum equation. Also, it overcomes the necessity of calculating friction slope (S_f) in flood routing and hence the associated uncertainties are eliminated. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on an equation for wave velocity, which is obtained in terms of discontinuities in the gradient of flow parameters. The channel reach is divided into a number of approximately uniform sub‐reaches. Training set required for development of the fuzzy rule based model for each sub‐reach is obtained from discharge‐area relationship at its mean section. For highly heterogeneous sub‐reaches, optimized fuzzy rule based models are obtained by means of a neuro‐fuzzy algorithm. For demonstration, the FDFRM is applied to flood routing problems in a fictitious channel with single uniform reach, in a fictitious channel with two uniform sub‐reaches and also in a natural channel with a number of approximately uniform sub‐reaches. It is observed that in cases of the fictitious channels, the FDFRM outputs match well with those of an implicit numerical model (INM), which solves the dynamic wave equations using an implicit numerical scheme. For the natural channel, the FDFRM outputs are comparable to those of the HEC‐RAS model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical characterization of impact of system variables on temporal dynamics of groundwater in highly weathered regoliths

In situations where the water table fluctuates during the rainy season the characterization of the impact of system variables on the temporal dynamics of the groundwater (GW) is essential to improve the understanding at catchment or regional scale behaviour of GW. In this study the appropriateness of the statistical parameters; mean, median, the 80^th percentile (PC80), coefficient of variation (CV), correlation coefficient (r), and multiple regression models were assessed to characterize the impact of system variables on the temporal dynamics of hydraulic head relative to ground surface (HH) during rainy seasons. The study was conducted from 1999 to 2003 in the wet tropical Johnstone River catchment (JRC) in north‐east Queensland, Australia. Piezometer wells were installed at 32 sites under cropping to 5–90 m depth on different soil types, landscape positions, and varying proximity to surface water bodies (i.e. four system variables). The HH was measured, at least at 10–15 day intervals during 1–5 consecutive rainy seasons. The HH in the 32 wells fluctuated throughout each of the five rainy seasons. The mean HH averaged over the seasons ranged from 1·1 to 17·2 m across the wells, the median from 0·9 to 17·3 m, and the PC80 from 0·3 to 16·1 m. The temporal behaviour of HH characterization by mean of means of HH, the mean of medians of HH, and the mean of PC80 of HH, indicated the HH can be classified to belong to three different groups for each one of these parameters. The impact of the system variables on temporal dynamics, explored using multiple regression procedure, indicated that the model for median was marginally better than mean. The CV was found to be most appropriate parameter to characterize the impact of GW system variable (aquifer type), a component of the system variables, on temporal dynamics. The interactions of GW (i) belonging to different GW system and (ii) at shoulder with footslope in a landscape were best characterized by simple linear correlations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulations for multi-object spectrograph planet surveys

Radial velocity surveys for extrasolar planets generally require substantial amounts of large telescope time in order to monitor a sufficient number of stars. Two of the aspects which can limit such surveys are the single-object capabilities of the spectrograph, and an inefficient observing strategy for a given observing window. In addition, the detection rate of extrasolar planets using the radial velocity method has thus far been relatively linear with time. With the development of various multi-object Doppler survey instruments, there is growing potential to dramatically increase the detection rate using the Doppler method. Several of these instruments have already begun usage in large-scale surveys for extrasolar planets, such as Fibre Large Array Multi Element Spectrograph (FLAMES) on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and Keck Exoplanet Tracker (ET) on the Sloan 2.5-m wide-field telescope.
In order to plan an effective observing strategy for such a program, one must examine the expected results based on a given observing window and target selection. We present simulations of the expected results from a generic multi-object survey based on calculated noise models and sensitivity for the instrument and the known distribution of exoplanetary system parameters. We have developed code for automatically sifting and fitting the planet candidates produced by the survey to allow for fast follow-up observations to be conducted. The techniques presented here may be applied to a wide range of multi-object planet surveys.