黄河源区蒸散发量时空变化趋势及突变分析

蒸散发量是流域水文过程的关键因子。由于缺乏区域面上实际蒸散发量的长期观测,很难得到长时间序列的蒸散发时空变化趋势。因此,本研究首先利用架设在黄河源若尔盖地区的涡动相关系统观测的2010年全年的蒸散发资料进行分析,对欧洲中心提供的ERA-interim和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)提供的地表变量再分析数据集进行了局地适用性评估,并依据再分析蒸散数据集,基于统计学方法分析了1979~2014年黄河源区蒸散发量的时空分布及变化特征。结果表明:(1)ERA-interim蒸散发再分析资料在黄河源区适用性较好,均方根误差为0.63,NCEP蒸散发再分析资料在4~7月、10~12月模拟值偏高,均方根误差为0.81。(2)进而利用ERA-interim蒸散发再分析资料,基于Mann Kendall方法及Sen斜率(Sen’s slope estimator)检验法,分析了黄河源区蒸散发量在1979~2014年期间的变化趋势。黄河源区蒸散发量总体上呈现北高南低的年变化趋势,北部兴海—共和—贵德地区增加最为迅速,年变化率在1.5~2.5 mm/a,西南部曲麻莱—治多—玉树地区减少最为明显,变化率为-1.0~-0.5 mm/a,东南部玛沁—玛曲—久治地区蒸散发量的变化在0.5~1.0 mm/a。(3)利用滑动t检验和SQMK(Sequential Mann Kendall)方法检测出发生突变的年份集中在20世纪80年代。     

Spatio-temporal analysis of potential aquifer recharge: Application to the Basin of Mexico

Regional estimates of aquifer recharge are needed in data-scarce regions such as the Basin of Mexico, where nearly 20 million people are located and where the Basin’s aquifer system represents the main water source. In order to develop the spatio-temporal estimates of aquifer recharge and to analyze to what extent urban growth has affected aquifer recharge, this work presents a daily soil water balance which uses different vegetation and soil types as well as the effect of topography on climatological variables and evapotranspiration. The soil water balance was applied on a daily time step in the Basin of Mexico for the period 1975–1986, obtaining an annually-lumped potential recharge flow of 10.9–23.8 m³/s (35.9–78.1 mm) in the entire Basin, while the monthly values for the year with the largest lumped recharge value (1981 = 78.1 mm) range from 1 m³/s (0.3 mm) in December to 87.9 m³/s (23.7 mm) in June. As aquifer recharge in the Basin mainly occurs by subsurface flow from its enclosing mountains as Mountain Block Recharge, urban growth has had a minimal impact on aquifer recharge, although it has diminished recharge in the alluvial plain.     

Water Balance and Evapotranspiration Monitoring in Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering

Among the various components of the water balance, measurement of evapotranspiration has probably been the most difficult component to quantify and measure experimentally. Some attempts for direct measurement of evapotranspiration have included the use of weighing lysimeters. However, quantification of evapotranspiration has been typically conducted using energy balance approaches or indirect water balance methods that rely on quantification of other water balance components. This paper initially presents the fundamental aspects of evapotranspiration as well as of its evaporation and transpiration components. Typical methods used for prediction of evapotranspiration based on meteorological information are also discussed. The current trend of using evapotranspirative cover systems for closure of waste containment facilities located in arid climates has brought renewed needs for quantification of evapotranspiration. Finally, case histories where direct or indirect measurements of evapotranspiration have been conducted are described and analyzed.     

Assessment of the EUMETSAT LSA-SAF evapotranspiration product for drought monitoring in Europe

Evapotranspiration is a key parameter for water stress assessment as it is directly related to the moisture status of the soil-vegetation system and describes the moisture transfer from the surface to the atmosphere. With the launch of the Meteosat Second Generation geostationary satellites and the setup of the Satellite Application Facilities, it became possible to operationally produce evapotranspiration data with high spatial and temporal evolution over the entire continents of Europe and Africa. In the frame of this study we present an evaluation of the potential of the evapotranspiration (ET) product from the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) for drought assessment and monitoring in Europe.To assess the potential of this product, the LSA-SAF ET was used as input for the ratio of ET to reference evapotranspiration (ET₀), the latter estimated from the ECMWF interim reanalysis. In the analysis two case studies were considered corresponding to the drought episodes of spring/summer 2007 and 2011. For these case studies, the ratio ET/ET₀ was compared with meteorological drought indices (SPI, SPEI and Sc-PDSI for 2007 and SPI for 2011) as well as with the anomalies of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (fAPAR) derived from remote sensing data. The meteorological and remote sensing indicators were taken from the European Drought Observatory (EDO) and the CARPATCLIM climatological atlas.Results show the potential of ET/ET₀ to characterize soil moisture variability, and to give additional information to fAPAR and to precipitation distribution for drought assessment. The main limitations of the proposed ratio for drought characterization are discussed, including options to overcome them. These options include the use of filters to discriminate areas with a low percentage vegetation cover or areas that are not in their growing period and the use of evapotranspiration without water restriction (ET_wwr), obtained as output of the LSA-SAF model instead of ET₀. The ET/ET_wwr ratio was tested by comparing its accumulated values per growing period with the winter wheat yield values per country published by Eurostat. The results point to the potential of using the remote sensing based LSA-SAF evapotranspiration and the ET/ET_wwr ratio for vegetation monitoring at large scale, especially in areas where data is generally lacking.     

梭梭柴林地蒸散量估算模型的研究

在前人工作的基础上选用Prietley和Taylor的湿润表面蒸发量与相对土壤湿度, 对1992~1994年新疆莫索湾治沙站蒸渗仪的实测资料, 用数理统计方法建立了梭梭柴林地蒸散量的估算模型, 并且检验了该模型的效果。该模型只需常规气象资料和土壤湿度资料, 计算简便, 具有较高的精度, 适应于干旱地区使用。     

Spatial and temporal predictions of soil moisture dynamics,runoff, variable source areas and evapotranspiration for plynlimon,mid-wales

For many years hydrologists have tried to build physically realistic models which are still simple enough to be fitted to a range of observations made in the field. This is an ongoing process which will become even more difficult as the quality and variety of field and remotely sensed data improves. Hence models must be able to predict soil moisture patterns in time and in space as well as the outflow hydrograph. The model presented here (TOPMODEL) aims to predict the nature of variable source areas in a way that reflects their dynamics over space and time. All component processes are described and shown in operation. As TOPMODEL and similar models have a growing popularity, this paper can be seen as a demonstration of the model's predictive capabilities. The model is applied to the catchments of Plynlimon, mid-Wales for 1984, 1985 and 1986 data sets. The model has been thoroughly tested and cross-validated against independent data sets for different time periods, for a separate catchment, for internal gauges and for wet and dry periods. The resulting predicted soil moisture patterns show a small, semi-permanent variable source area that has the ability during large storms to expand dynamically over short time periods. Spatial predictions of evapotranspiration are also shown which reflect the influence of soil moisture patterns on this process. The weakest component of the model is the representation of root zone evaporation and how this pre-sets the antecedent condition of the catchment during long dry periods.     

First results of the earth observation Water Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy (WACMOS)

Observing and monitoring the different components of the global water cycle and their dynamics are essential steps to understand the climate of the Earth, forecast the weather, predict natural disasters like floods and droughts, and improve water resources management. Earth observation technology is a unique tool to provide a global understanding of many of the essential variables governing the water cycle and monitor their evolution from global to basin scales. In the coming years, an increasing number of Earth observation missions will provide an unprecedented capacity to quantify several of these variables on a routine basis. However, this growing observational capacity is also increasing the need for dedicated research efforts aimed at exploring the potential offered by the synergies among different and complementary EO data records. In this context, the European Space Agency (ESA) launched the Water Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy (WACMOS) in 2009 aiming at enhancing, developing and validating a novel set of multi-mission based methods and algorithms to retrieve a number of key variables relevant to the water cycle. In particular the project addressed four major scientific challenges associated to a number of key variables governing the water cycle: evapotranspiration, soil moisture, cloud properties related to surface solar irradiance and precipitation, and water vapour. This paper provides an overview of the scientific results and findings with the ultimate goal of demonstrating the potential of strategies based on utilizing multi-mission observations in maximizing the synergistic use of the different types of information provided by the currently available observation systems and establish the basis for further work.     

Estimating evapotranspiration fraction by modeling two-dimensional space of NDVI/albedo and day-night land surface temperature difference: A comparative study

Three simple models estimating the evapotranspiration fraction (EF) were tested, validated and compared with available data from NDVI/albedo and day-night land surface temperature difference (DT). They were analyzed using ground based measurements collected by the energy balance Bowen ratio system at the 11 enhanced facilities located at the Southern Great Planes of the USA between April 2001 and May 2005. One model was superior in predicting the EF. It used an extension of the Priestly-Taylor equation and a relation between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and DT.     

遥感技术估算干旱区蒸散发研究进展

遥感技术能够提供大范围地表特征参数的特点使其在干旱区蒸散发研究中得到广泛的应用。介绍了遥感技术求取干旱区地表特征参数（地表反照率、冠层叶面积指数、地表温度）的方法,并对遥感估算干旱区的主要计算模型做了概括和分析,最后提出了估算过程中主要存在的问题和未来发展的方向。     

Optimal estimation of irrigation schedule – An example of quantifying human interferences to hydrologic processes

Reliable records of water use for irrigation are often lacking. This presents a difficulty for a qualified water use and water availability assessment. Quantification of the hydrologic cycle processes in regions of intensive agricultural practice requires irrigation as an input to hydrologic models. This paper presents a coupled forward-inverse framework to estimate irrigation schedule using remote-sensed data and data assimilation and optimization techniques. Irrigation schedule is treated as an unknown input to a hydro-agronomic simulation model. Remote-sensed data is used to assess actual crop evapotranspiration, which is used as the “observation” of the computed crop evapotranspiration from the simulation model. To handle the impact of model and observation error and the unknown biased error with irrigation inputs, a coupled forward-inverse approach is proposed, implemented and tested. The coupled approach is realized by an integrated ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and genetic algorithm (GA). The result from a case study demonstrates that the forward and inverse procedures in the coupled framework are complementary to each other. Further analysis is provided on the impact of model and observation errors on the non-uniqueness problem with inverse modeling and on the exactness of irrigation estimates.