Improved regional scale processes reflected in projected hydrological changes over large European catchments

For the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the recent version of the coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model (GCM) of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology has been used to conduct an ensemble of transient climate simulations These simulations comprise three control simulations for the past century covering the period 1860–2000, and nine simulations for the future climate (2001–2100) using greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol concentrations according to the three IPCC scenarios B1, A1B and A2. For each scenario three simulations were performed. The global simulations were dynamically downscaled over Europe using the regional climate model (RCM) REMO at 0.44° horizontal resolution (about 50 km), whereas the physics packages of the GCM and RCM largely agree. The regional simulations comprise the three control simulations (1950–2000), the three A1B simulations and one simulation for B1 as well as for A2 (2001–2100). In our study we concentrate on the climate change signals in the hydrological cycle and the 2 m temperature by comparing the mean projected climate at the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100) to a control period representing current climate (1961–1990). The robustness of the climate change signal projected by the GCM and RCM is analysed focussing on the large European catchments of Baltic Sea (land only), Danube and Rhine. In this respect, a robust climate change signal designates a projected change that sticks out of the noise of natural climate variability. Catchments and seasons are identified where the climate change signal in the components of the hydrological cycle is robust, and where this signal has a larger uncertainty. Notable differences in the robustness of the climate change signals between the GCM and RCM simulations are related to a stronger warming projected by the GCM in the winter over the Baltic Sea catchment and in the summer over the Danube and Rhine catchments. Our results indicate that the main explanation for these differences is that the finer resolution of the RCM leads to a better representation of local scale processes at the surface that feed back to the atmosphere, i.e. an improved representation of the land sea contrast and related moisture transport processes over the Baltic Sea catchment, and an improved representation of soil moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere over the Danube and Rhine catchments.     

中国区域多种数值模式资料的地面气象要素评估

利用中国气象局国家级自动站(2421个站)的观测资料,分别对2010年7月1日至2013年6月30日的欧洲中期数值预报中心(ECMWF)、日本气象厅(JMA)和美国国家海洋大气局的全球预测系统(GFS)数值模式资料的地面气温、相对湿度和风速在中国区域的适用性进行了比较研究。结果表明,3种数值模式资料都能在一定程度上反映观测资料所具有的时间和空间分布特征,东部地区的适用性要高于西部地区。不同的地面气象要素,差异较大:对于地面气温和地面相对湿度,ECMWF比JMA和GFS更接近实际观测,ECMWF和JMA的分析场数据质量要好于预报场;ECMWF和JMA地面气温在冬季与观测差异最大,GFS地面气温在夏季与观测差异最大;3种数值模式资料的地面相对湿度在秋季和冬季与观测差异最大;对于地面风速,在江淮流域和华南等东部区域JMA与实际观测差异最小,在北部和西部区域ECMWF最好,JMA和GFS地面风速在冬季与实际观测差异最大。     

欧洲地质公园的基本特征及其地学基础

在联合国教科文组织和欧盟的支持下，欧洲地质公园建立起来了，含10个成员。各个地质公园有不同的地质科学意义，完全取决于所在地区的地质构造演化历史。欧洲地质构造分区对该区地质遗迹类型、分布和组合有明显的控制作用。在地质公园的调查、评价、规划、建设过程中，地球科学的支撑是极其重要的。     

Accelerated sediment delivery to continental margins during post-orogenic rebound of mountain ranges

Changes in sediment flux to continental margins are commonly interpreted in terms of tectonic growth of topography or climatic change. Here, we show that variations in sediment yield from orogenic systems, previously considered as resulting from climate change, drainage reorganisation or mantle processes can be explained by intrinsic mechanisms of mountain belt/foreland basin systems naturally evolving during post-orogenic decay. Numerical modelling indicates an increase of sediment flux leaving the orogenic system synchronous with the cessation of deposition in the foreland basin and the transition from late syn- to post-orogenesis. Experiments highlight the importance of lithospheric flexure that causes the post-orogenic isostatic rebound of the foreland basin. Erosion of the rebounding foreland basin combined with continued sediment flux from the thrust wedge drives an acceleration in sediment outflux towards continental margins. Sediment budget records in natural settings such as the Northern Pyrenees or Western European Alps also indicate accelerated post-orogenic sediment delivery to the Bay of Biscay and Rhône Delta respectively. These intrinsic processes that determine sediment yield to continental margins must be accounted for prior to consideration of additional external tectonic or climatic controls.