Controls on low-pressure anatexis

Low-pressure anatexis, whereby rocks melt in place after passing through the andalusite stability field, develops under more restricted conditions than does low-pressure metamorphism. Our thermal modelling and review of published work indicate that the following mechanisms, operating alone, may induce anatexis in typical pelitic rocks without inducing wholesale melting in the lower crust: (i) magmatic advection by pervasive flow; (ii) crustal-scale detachment faulting; and (iii) the presence of a high heat-producing layer. Of these, only magmatic advection by pervasive flow and crustal-scale detachment faulting have been shown quantitatively to provide sufficient heat to cause widespread melting. Combinations of the above mechanisms with pluton-scale magmatic advection, shear heating, removal of the lithospheric mantle, or with each other provide additional means of developing suitable high temperatures at shallow crustal levels to generate low-pressure anatexis.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Occurrence of salt water above fresh water in dynamic equilibrium in a coastal groundwater flow system near De Panne, Belgium

A salt water lens is found above fresh water under the shore between Dunkerque (France) and Nieuwpoort (Belgium). This inverse density distribution is in a dynamic equilibrium. It develops due to the infiltration of salt water on the back shore during high tide. Under this salt water lens, water infiltrated in the adjacent dune area flows towards the sea and discharges at the seabed. This water quality distribution differs from the classic salt water wedge under fresh water described in the literature. Here, the evolution to this water quality distribution is simulated with a density dependent numerical model. A large tidal range, shore morphology and a permeable groundwater reservoir are the main conditions for the observed water quality distribution. By altering these conditions, intermediate water quality distributions between the classic salt water wedge and the one discussed here develop. Based on these simulations, it is expected that similar kinds of inverse density distribution could be present in a number of coastal areas, which have tides, a gently sloping shore and a permeable substratum.     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The geological and geodynamic evolution of the eastern Black Sea basin: insights from 2-D and 3-D tectonic modelling

Subsidence mechanisms that may have controlled the evolution of the eastern Black Sea have been studied and simulated using a numerical model that integrates structural, thermal, isostatic and surface processes in both two- (2-D) and three-dimensions (3-D). The model enables the forward modelling of extensional basin evolution followed by deformation due to subsequent extensional and compressional events. Seismic data show that the eastern Black Sea has evolved via a sequence of interrelated tectonic events that began with early Tertiary rifting followed by several phases of compression, mainly confined to the edges of the basin. A large magnitude (approximately 12 km) of regional subsidence also occurred in the central basin throughout the Tertiary. Models that simulate the magnitude of observed fault controlled extension (β=1.13) do not reproduce the total depth of the basin. Similarly, the modelling of compressional deformation around the edges of the basin does little to enhance subsidence in the central basin. A modelling approach that quantifies lithosphere extension according to the amount of observed crustal thinning and thickening across the basin provides the closest match to overall subsidence. The modelling also shows that deep crustal and mantle–lithosphere processes can significantly influence the rate and magnitude of syn- to post-rift subsidence and shows that such mechanisms may have played an important role in forming the anomalously thin syn-rift and thick Miocene–Quaternary sequences observed in the basin. It is also suggested that extension of a 40–45 km thick pre-rift crust is required to generate the observed magnitude of total subsidence when considering a realistic bathymetry.     

Cation distribution and structure modelling of spinel solid solutions

 This paper presents an improved generalisation of cation distribution determination based on an accurate fit of all crystal-chemical parameters. Cations are assigned to the tetrahedral and octahedral sites of the structure according to their scattering power and a set of bond distances optimised for spinel structure. A database of 295 spinels was prepared from the literature and unpublished data. Selected compositions include the following cations: Mg²⁺, Al³⁺, Si⁴⁺, Ti⁴⁺, V³⁺, Cr³⁺, Mn²⁺, Mn³⁺, Fe²⁺, Fe³⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺, Zn²⁺ and vacancies. Bond distance optimisation reveals a definite lengthening in tetrahedral distance when large amounts of Fe³⁺ or Ni²⁺ are present in the octahedral site. This means that these cations modify the octahedral angle and hence the shared octahedral edge, causing an increase in the tetrahedral distance with respect to the size of the cations entering it. Some applications to published data are discussed, showing the capacity and limitations of the method for calculating cation distribution, and for identifying inconsistencies and inaccuracies in experimental data. Received: 19 February 2001 / Accepted: 1 June 2001     

Post-mid-Cretaceous eastern North Sea evolution inferred from 3D thermo-mechanical modelling

The Late Cretaceous–Cenozoic evolution of the eastern North Sea region is investigated by 3D thermo-mechanical modelling. The model quantifies the integrated effects on basin evolution of large-scale lithospheric processes, rheology, strength heterogeneities, tectonics, eustasy, sedimentation and erosion.

The evolution of the area is influenced by a number of factors: (1) thermal subsidence centred in the central North Sea providing accommodation space for thick sediment deposits; (2) 250-m eustatic fall from the Late Cretaceous to present, which causes exhumation of the North Sea Basin margins; (3) varying sediment supply; (4) isostatic adjustments following erosion and sedimentation; (5) Late Cretaceous–early Cenozoic Alpine compressional phases causing tectonic inversion of the Sorgenfrei–Tornquist Zone (STZ) and other weak zones.

The stress field and the lateral variations in lithospheric strength control lithospheric deformation under compression. The lithosphere is relatively weak in areas where Moho is deep and the upper mantle warm and weak. In these areas the lithosphere is thickened during compression producing surface uplift and erosion (e.g., at the Ringkøbing–Fyn High and in the southern part of Sweden). Observed late Cretaceous–early Cenozoic shallow water depths at the Ringkøbing–Fyn High as well as Cenozoic surface uplift in southern Sweden (the South Swedish Dome (SSD)) are explained by this mechanism.

The STZ is a prominent crustal structural weakness zone. Under compression, this zone is inverted and its surface uplifted and eroded. Contemporaneously, marginal depositional troughs develop. Post-compressional relaxation causes a regional uplift of this zone.

The model predicts sediment distributions and paleo-water depths in accordance with observations. Sediment truncation and exhumation at the North Sea Basin margins are explained by fall in global sea level, isostatic adjustments to exhumation, and uplift of the inverted STZ. This underlines the importance of the mechanisms dealt with in this paper for the evolution of intra-cratonic sedimentary basins.     

Natural environmental changes and human impact reflected in sediments of a high alpine lake in Switzerland

From the high alpine Sägistalsee (1935 m a.s.l.), 13.50 m of continuously laminated sediments comprising the last 9050 years, were analyzed. Even though Sägistalsee is a high elevation site, human-induced environmental changes start as early as 4300 cal. BP and leave a clearly detectable signal in the mineralogy of the sediments, which is much stronger than the signal from natural environmental changes that occurred before this time. Variations in the physical and mineralogical sediment properties of this clastic sequence reflect erosional changes in the catchment, where almost pure limestone contrasts with carbonaceous, quartz-bearing marl, and shist. The calcite/quartz (Cc/Qz) ratio was found to be most indicative of these changes, which occurred around AD 1850 and at 650, 2000, 3700, and 6400 cal. BP. The first four are interpreted as erosion events, which are related to human-induced changes in the vegetation cover and land use. We associate them to the recent development of tourism and grazing, the medieval intensification of pasturing, Roman forest clearance, and Bronze Age forest clearance, respectively. The Cc/Qz-ratio increases significantly within less than 100 years during these events, reflecting the erosion of unweathered or poorly weathered soils. The time intervals in between are characterized by a gradually decreasing Cc/Qz-ratio and reflect the stabilization or formation of new soils. Only the change at 6400 cal. BP, which represents the initial gradual stabilization of the catchment, is related to the immigration of Picea abies.