江淮异常梅雨

对江淮流域1885～1998年的特别丰、枯梅雨进行研究,重点论述近60年中4个重大丰梅年和三个空梅年的降水特点、异常变化、前期有关特征及严重后延影响等,并提出讨论意见。     

基于ERA-20C再分析数据的中国近海波候研究

基于ERA-20C再分析数据,综合分析了1950—2010年间中国近海的海表风速、风浪、涌浪和混合浪的分布特点。结果表明,中国近海的风场主要受东亚季风控制,在南海南部靠近越南的海域夏季形成7 m/s的风速大值中心,冬季风速则可达9 m/s。风浪场的空间分布特点与风场相似,而受传播效应和浅水效应的影响,涌浪场四季均在吕宋海峡和东海东南部出现波高的大值中心。春夏季节中国近海大部分海域涌浪占优,与风速大值中心对应,夏冬季节南海南部10°N附近存在风浪池。趋势分析结果显示,风速和混合浪有效波高的线性趋势呈现相似的空间分布,南海的风速和波高分别以0.27 cm·s^-1/a和0.74 cm/a的速率显着增加。而渤海分别以-0.49 cm·s^-1/a和-0.85 cm/a的速率显著降低,黄海的变化率分别为-0.43 cm·s^-1/a和-0.79 cm/a。将中国近海风速和波高的年际变化分别与气候指数尼诺3.4进行相关分析,结果显示,冬季大部分海域的相关系数为负,而夏季在南海和东海海域则为正。     

A thermal centroid or a mass centroid?

This study reveals the physical backgrounds of the geometric centroid and the thermal centroid of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and points out their differences. The geometric centroid (actually a very close approximation to the mass centroid) anomaly of the surface WPWP correlates more closely with the Niño-3 region sea surface temperature anomaly (Niño-3 SSTA, an important indicator of El Niño/La Niña events) than the surface thermal centroid. Taking the WPWP depth (or heat storage) into account, the “real” mass or thermal centroid of the WPWP might correlate better with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals.     

The “El Pilote” fluorite skarn: A crucial deposit in the understanding and interpretation of the origin and mobilization of F from northern Mexico deposits

Fluorite deposits are widespread in northern Mexico and those deposits have traditionally been categorized as exclusively hydrothermal–magmatic in origin. Recently, two different fluorite-bearing type models have been proposed for the Northern Mexican deposits: (1) MVT-like deposits formed from basinal brines mobilized during the Laramide Orogeny (La Encantada deposit, Gonzalez-Partida et al., [Gonzalez-Partida, E., Carrillo-Chavez, A., Grimmer, J.O.W., Pironon, J., 2002. Petroleum-rich fluid inclusions in fluorite, Purisima mine, Coahuila, Mexico. International Geological Review 44 (8), 751–763.]; Tritlla et al., [Tritlla, J., Gonzalez-Partida, E., Levresse, G., Banks, D., Pironon, J., 2004. Fluorite deposits at Encantada-Buenavista, Mexico: products of Mississippi Valley type processes — a reply. Ore Geology Reviews 25, 329–332.]); and (2) fluorite-bearing skarns in close contact with rhyolite intrusives (Levinson, [Levinson, A.A., 1962. Beryllium–fluorine mineralization at Aguachile Mountain, Coahuila, Mexico. American Mineralogist 47, 67–75.]). The El Pilote fluorite deposit falls into the second category, and is the only known example of a magmatic-related fluorite deposit in the area. The fluorite trace-element patterns from both the El Pilote skarn and La Encantada MVT deposits display comparable and very low relative abundances as well as comparable chondrite-normalized REE patterns; this would suggest that the skarn F-source comes from the remobilization of a MVT fluorite manto.     

Has the Problem of a Permanent El Nio been Resolved for the Mid-Pliocene?

The mid-Pliocene, the most recent warm geological period, is thought to be indicative of the fate of the Earth's climate under global warming. Earlier evidence has suggested that permanent El Nio-like conditions existed in the mid-Pliocene, though the concept of a permanent El Nio remains controversial. Here, the authors analyzed Nio 3.4 SST in pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene simulations with the low-resolution version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-L). The simulated mid-Pliocene Nio3.4 SST, with a smaller standard deviation, indicated that a weaker ENSO existed in the mid-Pliocene relative to the pre-industrial experiment. Compared with earlier modeling studies, our simulations show that the problem of ENSO's standard deviations in the mid-Pliocene remains unresolved, although the mean and the period of ENSO in the mid-Pliocene have been resolved by earlier geological and modeling studies.     

近年来厄尔尼诺期间北赤道流输运的年际变化

为了研究近年来厄尔尼诺期间北赤道流输运的年际变化,本文利用海洋客观分析数据MOAA GPV(Grid Point Value of the Monthly Objective Analysis)以及P-vector方法计算了北太平洋绝对地转流,探讨了2001~2013年期间厄尔尼诺与北赤道流输运之间的关系。在此期间发生的4次厄尔尼诺事件中,北赤道流输运在2002~2003、2006~2007、2009~2010年的厄尔尼诺成熟期都出现了明显的增强,但是在2004~2005年的厄尔尼诺成熟期并没有明显的增强。进一步分析发现,在2002~2003年、2006~2007年、2009~2010年的厄尔尼诺成熟期,10°N以南的热带西北太平洋区域出现了负的海面高度异常和气旋式环流异常,这主要是由热带环流区域出现的西风异常和正的Ekman抽吸通过Rossby波西传到热带西太平洋区域所致;但是在2004~2005年厄尔尼诺成熟期,海面温度异常的分布明显不同,西风异常和正的Ekman抽吸异常明显北移,导致负的海面高度异常和气旋式环流异常出现在了10°N以北的西北太平洋区域,使得北赤道流输运在2004~2005年的厄尔尼诺成熟期没有明显的增强。     

Present-day deformation along the El Pilar Fault in eastern Venezuela: Evidence of creep along a major transform boundary

The right-lateral strike-slip El Pilar Fault is one of the major structures that accommodate the relative displacement between the Caribbean and South-America Plates. This fault, which trends East–West along the northeastern Venezuela margin, is a seismogenic source, and shows numerous evidence for active tectonics, including deformation of the Quaternary sediments filling the Cariaco Gulf. Because the main El Pilar Fault strand belongs to a set of strike-slip faults and thrusts between the stable Guyana shield (South) and the Caribbean oceanic floor (North), a GPS network was designed and installed to measure the relative motion of the El Pilar Fault and other faults. The results obtained from the comparison of 2003 and 2005 surveys indicate: (i) a lack of significant displacement (especially shortening) in the Serrania del Interior (Neogene cordillera overthrusted above the Guyana craton), (ii) an eastward displacement (relative to fixed south America plate) up to 22 mm/year of benchmarks located north of the El Pilar Fault.     

AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK

Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.     

El Nio/La Nia过程影响因子的模糊诊断分析

基于模糊系统理论，讨论了从实测信号中滤除特定干扰噪音的途径和过程，研究了从观测资料中辩识El Nino／La Nina主要影响因子的诊断检测方法。结果表明，由于模糊系统具有非线性、容错性和自适应学习等特性，因此能够比较有效地辨认和检测出El Nino／La Nina事件的主要影响因子，并大致分析出它们对不同El Nino／La Nina事件的影响程度和贡献大小。     

西太平洋暖池变异及其对西太平洋次表层海温场的影响

应用热带太平洋上层XBT温度资料,分析研究了西太平洋暖池区(0°～16°N,125°～145°E)上层海洋的变化特征以及与西太平洋次表层海温场之间的关系.研究表明,西太平洋暖池区的垂向温度存在显著的年际变化,尤其在次表层(120～200m)的变化最为明显.西太平洋暖池区的次表层冷暖信号明显早于西太平洋次表层的海温异常.分析发现,西太平洋暖池区的海温异常是导致整个西太平洋次表层海温场变异的关键区,当西太平洋暖池区的次表层冷暖信号加强时,3～4个月后西太平洋海温场出现大范围的冷暖异常.