A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) – Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical–biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye (Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios.     

Health co-benefits and the development of climate change mitigation policies in the European Union

The 2015 Paris Agreement requires increasingly ambitious emissions reduction efforts from its member countries. Accounting for ancillary positive health outcomes (health co-benefits) that result from implementing climate change mitigation policies can provide Parties to the Paris Agreement with a sound rationale for introducing stronger mitigation strategies. Despite this recognition, a knowledge gap exists on the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies. To address this gap, the case study presented here investigates the role of health co-benefits in the development of European Union (EU) climate change mitigation policies through analysis and consideration of semi-structured interview data, government documents, journal articles and media releases. We find that while health co-benefits are an explicit consideration in the development of EU climate change mitigation policies, their influence on final policy outcomes has been limited. Our analysis suggests that whilst health co-benefits are a key driver of air pollution mitigation policies, climate mitigation policies are primarily driven by other factors, including economic costs and energy implications.

Key policy insights

• Health co-benefits are quantified and monetized as part of the development of EU climate change mitigation policies but their influence on the final policies agreed upon is limited.

• Barriers, such as the immediate economic costs associated with climate action, inhibit the influence of health co-benefits on the development of mitigation policies.

• Health co-benefits primarily drive the development of EU air pollution mitigation policies.

• The separation of responsibility for GHG and non-GHG emissions across Directorate Generals has decoupled climate change and air pollution mitigation policies, with consequences for the integration of health co-benefits in climate policy.

     

太湖鱼类产量、组成的变动规律及与环境的关系

湖泊生态系统健康包含两个方面的内涵:满足人类社会合理要求的能力和湖泊生态系统自我维持与更新的能力.获知湖泊生态系统健康状况及其区域分异特征,对于湖泊管理具有重要意义.本文基于对太湖的野外调查,计算了表征湖泊生态系统健康的系统能、系统能结构、生态缓冲容量和湖泊营养状态指数.聚类分析结果表明,太湖不同湖区生态系统健康状况存在一定差异,东部湖区较好,西部湖区较差,呈现由东南部湖区向西北部湖区递减的趋势.该结果对进一步研究湖泊生态系统健康评价指标阈值具有重要的参考意义.     

基于谱系聚类的全球各国新冠疫情时间序列特征分析

COVID-19暴发以来,世界各国疫情呈现出不同的时序特点,研究不同国家疫情发展模式的特点,揭示其背后的主导因素,可为未来防控策略提供参考.为了揭示不同国家疫情时间序列之间的异同,本文提取了主要疫情国家每日新增病例时间序列的标准差、Hurst指数、治愈率、增长时长、平均增长率、防控效率进行谱系聚类,并从经济、医疗、人文...     

洞庭湖主要河口区表层沉积物与河蚬中砷的污染特征及风险评价

水体砷污染及其健康危害已成为一个备受关注的环境问题.本研究通过测定洞庭湖主要河口区表层沉积物砷含量、河蚬砷及砷形态（亚砷酸盐As（Ⅲ）、砷酸盐As（Ⅴ）、甲基砷酸MMA、二甲基砷酸DMA和砷甜菜碱AsB）含量,对表层沉积物砷的潜在生态风险和河蚬食用健康风险进行评价.结果表明,洞庭湖主要河口区表层沉积物砷含量在11.47~61.20 mg/kg之间,其水平分布规律表现为：南洞庭湖>东洞庭湖>西洞庭湖.河蚬砷含量范围为6.36~11.15 mg/kg,各砷形态含量排序为：AsB > As（Ⅴ） > DMA > As（Ⅲ） > MMA,各样地间不存在显著性差异.应用潜在生态风险指数法对表层沉积物中砷的潜在生态风险进行评价,各样地的潜在生态风险指数均值为23.09,潜在生态风险程度属于轻微级别.同时,利用致癌风险指数（CR）和危熵系数（HQ）评价经河蚬摄入无机砷给人体带来的潜在健康风险.洞庭湖主要河口区河蚬中无机砷的致癌风险CR_iAs值达到了1.36×10^-3~3.43×10^-3（平均值为2.24×10^-3）,均显著超过USEPA推荐的可接受风险水平上限值（1×10^-4）,其危熵系数HQ_iAs值达到3.01~7.61（平均值为4.98,约为标准值的5倍）,说明长期食用当地河蚬具有较高的致癌和非致癌健康风险.本研究结果对于了解洞庭湖沉积物和底栖动物的砷污染现状和风险水平具有重要意义,为该流域的砷污染控制及治理提供科学依据.     

地质环境与农业生态对人体健康的影响

地质环境是人类赖以生存的先决条件 ,而农业生态的演变 ,在某种程度上受到地质环境条件的制约。土壤中的化学元素进入人体是通过食物链而实现的 ,与人体健康息息相关。因此 ,选择优越地质环境 ,促进农业生态良好发展 ,培育 (植 )出对人体医疗保健有益的营养品 (粮、棉、油、果蔬等 ) ,对人体健康十分有利。     

结构健康监测系统设计标准化评述与展望

阐述了结构健康监测的概念和内涵。详细介绍了结构健康监测系统的功能、组成和应用现状。结构健康监测系统设计标准化能够促进健康监测的应用和发展,具有重要的工程意义。对世界范围内相关研究进展进行了综述和评价。强调在我国建立监测系统设计标准的重要性,并提出了相应的说明和建议。设计标准可以分为总则、外观检查与无损检测、传感器的选择与布置、信息采集与处理系统、通信与传输系统、损伤识别和评估系统、应用实例等7部分。结构健康监测系统设计标准的实现将有力地推动健康监测的研究。     

生态系统与人类健康

简要介绍了千年生态系统评估（MA）项目针对生态系统与人类健康编写的《生态系统与人类福祉：健康综合报告》的核心内容。报告表明：① 生态系统及其服务是人类生存和维持健康的根基,但生态系统与人类健康之间的关系多是间接性的,可能出现时空移位,而且还会受到许多动态因素的影响,因而对其认知难度较大;② 在过去的50年中,主要由人类活动造成的生态系统变化,一方面显著改善了人类的健康状况,另一方面人类也为此付出了日益昂贵的代价,并对未来的人类健康构成了新的威胁;③ 对于未来50年(2000—2050年)的生态系统变化与人类健康状况,虽然MA的4种情景的模拟结果不尽相同,但是,它们一致认为人类对食物和水资源等生态系统服务的需求将大幅增长,人类活动对生态系统的快速转化将会持续,而且难以实现食物安全及消除儿童营养不良等目标;④ 长远来看,生态系统的可持续管理与人类健康状况的改善具有相互促进作用。但是,为了实现改善人类健康和保育生态系统的双赢目标,必需对现行的管理、制度、法规和政策等进行一系列的全面改革。     

河流健康:概念、评价方法与方向

人类不合理的社会经济活动严重干扰了河流生态系统,河流健康问题引起广泛的重视。在详细概括了有关河流健康概念的不同认识基础上,介绍了河流健康评价的生物监测法与综合指标法的优缺点与发展历程,并就有关河流健康评价的发展趋势提出建议。认为今后的重点是评价标准确定、河流对干扰敏感性、生态过程性指标及流域尺度上的健康评价的研究。     

基于农业区位论的北京市土壤-小麦系统中重金属Pb积累特征及其健康风险

基于农业区位论,采集23组土壤-小麦匹配样品,探究北京市不同圈层土壤-小麦系统中Pb的全量、形态与生物有效性。结果表明:①频繁的交通活动与工业释放致使城区土壤呈现出Pb污染,而长期污水灌溉等农业活动导致了近郊平原局部土壤Pb污染。②土壤中Pb主要以残余态与有机结合态形式存在,其次是铁锰氧化态,而碳酸盐结合态与离子交换态非常少。Pb的活性从中心城区到近郊平原、远郊平原逐渐下降。③小麦植株中Pb含量与土壤中铁锰氧化态Pb含量呈正相关;④麦粒中Pb的富集系数仅约为0.004 4,但仍发现城区与近郊麦粒中部分Pb含量超标。