Wasp-waist populations and marine ecosystem dynamics: Navigating the “predator pit” topographies

Many marine ecosystems exhibit a characteristic “wasp-waist” structure, where a single species, or at most several species, of small planktivorous fishes entirely dominate their trophic level. These species have complex life histories that result in radical variability that may propagate to both higher and lower trophic levels of the ecosystem. In addition, these populations have two key attributes: (1) they represent the lowest trophic level that is mobile, so they are capable of relocating their area of operation according to their own internal dynamics; (2) they may prey upon the early life stages of their predators, forming an unstable feedback loop in the trophic system that may, for example, precipitate abrupt regime shifts. Experience with the typical “boom-bust” dynamics of this type of population, and with populations that interact trophically with them, suggests a “predator pit” type of dynamics. This features a refuge from predation when abundance is very low, very destructive predation between an abundance level sufficient to attract interest from predators and an abundance level sufficient to satiate available predators, and, as abundance increases beyond this satiation point, decreasing specific predation mortality and population breakout. A simple formalism is developed to describe these dynamics. Examples of its application include (a) a hypothetical mechanism for progressive geographical habitat expansion at high biomass, (b) an explanation for the out-of-phase alternations of abundances of anchovies and sardines in many regional systems that appear to occur without substantial adverse interactions between the two species groups, and (c) an account of an interaction of environmental processes and fishery exploitation that caused a regime shift. The last is the example of the Baltic Sea, where the cod resource collapsed in concert with establishment of dominance of that ecosystem by the cod’s ‘wasp-waist” prey, herring and sprat.     

黄海大海洋生态系污染/环境特征及其生态效应的监测和研究

本文对黄海大海洋生态系(LME)的污染/环境特征及其生态效应的监测和研究现状进行了综述,从大系统的角度指出了已知的和未知的关键环节;提出了黄海大海洋生态系污染/环境及其生态效应的监测和研究方案,强调了应着重和优先研究的方面。     

Towards end-to-end models for investigating the effects of climate and fishing in marine ecosystems

End-to-end models that represent ecosystem components from primary producers to top predators, linked through trophic interactions and affected by the abiotic environment, are expected to provide valuable tools for assessing the effects of climate change and fishing on ecosystem dynamics. Here, we review the main process-based approaches used for marine ecosystem modelling, focusing on the extent of the food web modelled, the forcing factors considered, the trophic processes represented, as well as the potential use and further development of the models. We consider models of a subset of the food web, models which represent the first attempts to couple low and high trophic levels, integrated models of the whole ecosystem, and size spectrum models. Comparisons within and among these groups of models highlight the preferential use of functional groups at low trophic levels and species at higher trophic levels and the different ways in which the models account for abiotic processes. The model comparisons also highlight the importance of choosing an appropriate spatial dimension for representing organism dynamics. Many of the reviewed models could be extended by adding components and by ensuring that the full life cycles of species components are represented, but end-to-end models should provide full coverage of ecosystem components, the integration of physical and biological processes at different scales and two-way interactions between ecosystem components. We suggest that this is best achieved by coupling models, but there are very few existing cases where the coupling supports true two-way interaction. The advantages of coupling models are that the extent of discretization and representation can be targeted to the part of the food web being considered, making their development time- and cost-effective. Processes such as predation can be coupled to allow the propagation of forcing factors effects up and down the food web. However, there needs to be a stronger focus on enabling two-way interaction, carefully selecting the key functional groups and species, reconciling different time and space scales and the methods of converting between energy, nutrients and mass.     

Numerical Model Approaches to Address Recent Problems on Pelagic Ecosystems

A review of ecosystem modeling is presented, classifying the models on the basis of the problems they address. The problems are chosen mainly from those concerning the North Pacific and encompass: limiting factors in high-nutrient/low-chlorophyll (HNLC) regions; nutrient supply to the subtropical gyre; long-term variation; parameter optimization; oceanic provinces. A future research direction should be to sort out priorities of various biogeochemical and ecological processes with the long-term variation problem being the axis, while keeping the model complexity at a minimum and invoking the parameter optimization technique. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Considering ecosystem-based fisheries management in the California Current

Recognizing that all management decisions have impacts on the ecosystem being exploited, an ecosystem-based approach to management seeks to better inform these decisions with knowledge of ecosystem structure, processes and functions. For marine fisheries in the California Current, along the West Coast of North America, such an approach must take into greater consideration the constantly changing climate-driven physical and biological interactions in the ecosystem, the trophic relationships between fished and unfished elements of the food web, the adaptation potential of life history diversity, and the role of humans as both predators and competitors. This paper reviews fisheries-based ecosystem tools, insights, and management concepts, and presents a transitional means of implementing an ecosystem-based approach to managing US fisheries in the California Current based on current scientific knowledge and interpretation of existing law.     

Field data analysis and application of a complex water column biogeochemical model in different areas of a semi-enclosed basin: towards the development of an ecosystem management tool

The Pagasitikos gulf ecosystem is studied through the analysis of experimental field data acquired during several monitoring projects and the application of a complex biogeochemical model. The gulf was separated into three different parts (internal, top central-external, bottom central-external) according to the patterns exhibited by the key ecosystem indicators. Unlike other semi-enclosed gulfs Pagasitikos can be characterised as meso-oligotrophic undergoing periods of P or N limitation. Although the signal of nutrient inputs is not very clear in the field data, their importance is assessed through simulation. Increased phosphate concentrations either due to mixing or due to anthropogenic activities can result in phytoplanktonic blooms with significant contribution by diatoms. The effect of hydrodynamic patterns on primary production has been demonstrated through ecosystem modeling indicating that due to long stratification periods, all nutrients released through the benthic regeneration are trapped in the deeper layers, developing a microbial food web. However when the thermocline erodes nutrients find their way up in the upper layers of the euphotic zone and the system turns into more classical type with primary producers growing significantly faster.     

A geomorphological model of susceptibility to the effect of human interventions for environmental licensing determination (SHIELD)

Almost every country requires some form of environmental licensing prior to the inception of development projects that may affect the integrity of the environment and its social context. We developed a new conceptual and methodological model to instruct the assessment of the potential impacts posed by proposed projects. Susceptibility to Human Interventions for Environmental Licensing Determination (SHIELD) includes a novel geomorphological interpretation of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). It considers the impact of human interventions on geomorphological processes and landscape functioning in the context of the entire ecosystem, going further than the classical concept of vulnerability. Estimated susceptibility of the site informs the screening stage, allowing local conditions to help define the criteria used in the process. Similarly, the level of detail of the environmental baseline is scoped by considering the degree of disturbance of natural processes posed by human intervention. Testing this geomorphological susceptibility model on different kinds of environments would allow shifting the environmental licensing practices from the prevailing anthropocentric and static conception of the environment towards an Ecosystem Approach. SHIELD addresses the need to improve the screening and scoping stages that form the basis of the rest of any EIA. SHIELD introduces several innovations to EIA including the incorporation of fuzzy logic, a preassembled database of contributions form experts, and a shifting of emphasis from the type of proposed intervention to the type of environment and its relative susceptibility.     

The interaction triangle as a tool for understanding stakeholder interactions in marine ecosystem based management

Expectations about ecosystem based management (EBM) differ due to diverging perspectives about what EBM should be and how it should work. While EBM by its nature requires trade-offs to be made between ecological, economic and social sustainability criteria, the diversity of cross-sectoral perspectives, values, stakes, and the specificity of each individual situation determine the outcome of these trade-offs. The authors strive to raise awareness of the importance of interaction between three stakeholder groups (decision makers, scientists, and other actors) and argue that choosing appropriate degrees of interaction between them in a transparent way can make EBM more effective in terms of the three effectiveness criteria salience, legitimacy, and credibility. This article therefore presents an interaction triangle in which three crucial dimensions of stakeholder interactions are discussed: (A) between decision makers and scientists, who engage in framing to foster salience of scientific input to decision making, (B) between decision makers and other actors, to shape participation processes to foster legitimacy of EBM processes, and (C) between scientists and other actors, who collaborate to foster credibility of knowledge production. Due to the complexity of EBM, there is not one optimal interaction approach; rather, finding the optimal degrees of interaction for each dimension depends on the context in which EBM is implemented, i.e. the EBM objectives, the EBM initiator’s willingness for transparency and interaction, and other context-specific factors, such as resources, trust, and state of knowledge.     

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.