全球生态系统服务未来变化的情景

[ZW（*][HT6H]〓收稿日期：;修回日期：2007 05 18. 〓作者简介：[HT6SS]张永民（1973 ）,男,河南延津人,副研究员,主要从事生态系统研究.[WT6HZ]E mail: [WT6BZ]zym0810@yahoo.com.cn[ZW)] [HT4F] [HT5K]（JZ)] [HT5H][GK2] 摘〓要:[HT5K]简要介绍了千年生态系统评估（MA）项目情景工作组的报告《生态系统与人类福祉：情景》的核心内容。该报告主要构建和评估了全球生态系统服务在21世纪前50年可能出现的4个情景,总的来讲,生态系统服务的主要变化包括：①在实力秩序情景中,生态系统的供给服务、调节服务、文化服务和支持服务都呈现下降趋势;②在适应组合情景中,生态系统的供给服务、调节服务和文化服务呈现上升趋势,而支持服务变化不大;③在全球协同情景中,生态系统的供给服务呈现上升趋势,而调节服务、文化服务与支持服务则呈现下降趋势;④在技术家园情景中,生态系统的文化服务呈现下降趋势,供给服务和调节服务呈现上升趋势,而支持服务变化不大;⑤在4个情景中,有些供给服务与其它服务之间存在显著的此长彼消的关系;⑥在4个情景中,有些生态系统服务的变化在工业化国家和发展中国家之间存在显著的差异。     

意愿价值法评估生态服务价值的有效性与可靠性及实例设计研究

意愿价值评估法(CVM)以新古典经济学需求理论为基础,通过构造假想市场使生态服务价值的评估成为可能.但是,经验研究中出现了与新古典经济理论及其预期不一致的异常现象,致使CVM的有效性与可靠性受到广泛质疑,而成为目前国际CVM研究的主要方向.对国际、国内CVM有效性与可靠性的研究进展进行了综述,重点梳理了国际上对WTP的内容依赖性、WTP与WTA的显著差异及可靠性与效益转移等方面的经验研究;而国内由于缺乏该方面的系统研究,制约了CVM在我国生态价值评估及环境公共政策制定中的应用.为此,在前期开展的实例研究基础上,设计了适合我国社会经济特征和生态环境特点的CVM有效性与可靠性研究的技术路线和多重调查方案,以期推动CVM在我国的进一步发展与应用.     

Nitrogen and carbon cycling in the North Sea and exchange with the North Atlantic—A model study. Part I. Nitrogen budget and fluxes

The three-dimensional biogeochemical model ECOHAM was applied to the Northwest European Shelf (47°41′–63°53′N, 15°5′W–13°55′E) for the years 1993–1996. Nitrogen budgets were calculated for the years 1995 and 1996 for the inner shelf region, the North Sea (511,725 km²). Simulated temperatures as well as nitrate, oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations are compared with observations.     

Trade-offs between carbon,water, soil and food in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region from remotely sensed data

It is important to ensure the efficient supply of land ecosystem services when the competition for land is increasing. In this paper we simulated the ecosystem services function under two scenarios, including carbon sequestration, agricultural production, water and soil conservation, and analyzed the tradeoffs among these ecosystem services in Guanzhong-Tianshui region from 2000 to 2050. Then the productive efficiency of ecosystem services was assessed under two scenarios and compared their production possibility frontiers (PPFs). Through the simulation analysis of their optimum allocation, we also provide the scientific evidence to the development of ecosystem. The natural rules were revealed that if these trade-offs emphasize the potential to sequester carbon in the landscape, along with very little loss of agricultural production, much more water is used. It could be identified to adhere to combine the exploitation and utilization, remediation and protection for land to promote the effective circulation of land eco-system, and meet the society’s preferences for land ecosystem service function by adjusting the use of multiple eco-services.     

Organizing coordination in a public marine research and management advice organization: The case of the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research

Public organizations involved in marine management are increasingly confronted with coordination challenges in marine governance. This study examines why and how the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research (IMR) reorganized its formal coordination structures between the areas of fisheries management and marine environmental management. The findings indicate that organizing efficient and, at the same time, legitimate coordination structures between different areas of marine governance is a “wicked” organizational problem with no ultimate and single optimal solution. In contrast to the assumptions of classical organization and management theory, the study finds that the reorganization of formal coordination structures is not necessarily driven for reasons of efficiency and perceived coordination problems. Instead, public marine management organizations also change their organizational structures to live up to external expectations to adopt modern management concepts, such as the Ecosystem Approach to Management (EAM). However, the study indicates that the adoption of the EAM has stimulated coordination and integration efforts in the research and advisory activities of the IMR.     

Exploring the applicability of biological and socioeconomic tools in developing EAFM plans for data absent areas: Spinner dolphin EAFM for Kalpitiya,Sri Lanka

The ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) methodology is currently considered the preferred option for long-term sustainability of fisheries and ecosystem services and is widely popularised. Manuals, guidelines and training have been given to many nations, but the actual existence and execution of an EAFM plan is rare. The applicability and relevance of biological and socioeconomic tools to follow EAFM planning guidelines in a data absent area were explored in Kalpitiya, northwest Sri Lanka, where there is a population of spinner dolphins that the local community are especially dependent on through tuna-dolphin association fishing and dolphin-watching tourism. This paper provides background to the design and collection of information leading to the formulation of an EAFM management plan. Scoping and the determination of a fishery management area were completed through stakeholder consultations using a combination of interviewer-administered questionnaires, interviews, meetings, dolphin distribution data and existing management plans. Threats and stakeholder prioritisation were compiled and the final agreed fisheries management area covers a total area of 2445 km² adjacent to the Kalpitiya peninsula. The completed EAFM plan contains 4 goals, 16 actions and 72 sub-actions agreed by stakeholders. It was concluded that both willingness of higher level stakeholders responsible for implementing regulations and working with grass-root level stakeholders are critical in developing a realistic and implementable EAFM plan. This work also highlights how data absence should not remain the bottleneck that hinders moving forward with EAFM approaches.     

Land-use and sustainability under intersecting global change and domestic policy scenarios: Trajectories for Australia to 2050

Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future.     

An ecosystem approach to small-scale fisheries through participatory diagnosis in four tropical countries

Participatory diagnosis is an approach to identify, prioritize and mobilise around factors that constrain or enable effective governance and management in small-scale fisheries. Diagnostic frameworks are mostly designed and used for systematic scientific analysis or impact evaluation. Through participation they also have potential to guide contextually informed improvements to management in practice, including transitions to contemporary forms of governance like the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF)—the focus of our study. We document and critically reflect on participatory diagnosis processes and outcomes at sites in Indonesia, Philippines, Solomon Islands and Tanzania. These sites were part of an international project on the implementation of the EAF and differed widely in institutional and operational contexts. The Participatory Diagnosis and Adaptive Management framework and the “issue radar” diagnosis map were used to identify, evaluate and address factors associated with navigating management transitions towards the EAF. We found that many challenges and priority actions identified by participants were similar across the four study countries. Participants emphasized habitat restoration, particularly mangrove rehabilitation, and livelihood enhancement. The importance of strengthening governance entities, networks and processes (e.g., harmonization of policies, education and awareness of policies) was also a prominent outcome of the diagnosis. Site-specific factors were also explored together with the differing views among stakeholders. We conclude that diagnosis frameworks are indeed useful tools for guiding management transitions in fisheries, particularly where they enable flexibility in approaches to diagnosing problems and applying solutions to local contexts.     

Unpacking ecosystem service bundles: Towards predictive mapping of synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services

Multiple ecosystem services (ES) can respond similarly to social and ecological factors to form bundles. Identifying key social-ecological variables and understanding how they co-vary to produce these consistent sets of ES may ultimately allow the prediction and modelling of ES bundles, and thus, help us understand critical synergies and trade-offs across landscapes. Such an understanding is essential for informing better management of multi-functional landscapes and minimising costly trade-offs. However, the relative importance of different social and biophysical drivers of ES bundles in different types of social-ecological systems remains unclear. As such, a bottom-up understanding of the determinants of ES bundles is a critical research gap in ES and sustainability science.Here, we evaluate the current methods used in ES bundle science and synthesize these into four steps that capture the plurality of methods used to examine predictors of ES bundles. We then apply these four steps to a cross-study comparison (North and South French Alps) of relationships between social-ecological variables and ES bundles, as it is widely advocated that cross-study comparisons are necessary for achieving a general understanding of predictors of ES associations. We use the results of this case study to assess the strengths and limitations of current approaches for understanding distributions of ES bundles. We conclude that inconsistency of spatial scale remains the primary barrier for understanding and predicting ES bundles. We suggest a hypothesis-driven approach is required to predict relationships between ES, and we outline the research required for such an understanding to emerge.     

Planning restoration in human-modified landscapes: New insights linking different scales

The transformation of tropical ecosystems by humans have resulted in forest loss, which, in turn, have caused negative impacts on biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services. There is an urgent need to plan the restoration of these human-modified landscapes, using methodological approaches that consider key processes occurring at different spatial scales while engage local community participation, offering them the best possibilities of tangible benefits. In this study, was evaluated the landscape spatial pattern and local conservation status of existing forest remnants, showing an analysis of possible restoration scenarios for a human-modified landscape in La Montaña, an indigenous region in southwestern Mexico. Therefore, landscape and local scale approaches were linked to identify specific landscape elements where efforts to improve connectivity must be concentrated. Also, this approach allowed finding a set of species from reference sites that showed the best socioecological characteristics to be used in different restoration strategies. As expected, La Montaña region showed a spatial pattern typical of highly human-modified landscapes, i.e., several small (<21 ha) and irregular forest remnants with strong forest edge effects. Furthermore, these small and irregular forest fragments displayed forest structure, diversity and composition characteristics similar to those communities disturbed by selective harvesting or in an early successional phase. However, about 100 of woody species were found inside the fragments, some with important potential to provide ecosystem services. The landscape connectivity was very low, and an analysis of possible restoration scenarios showed that is equally important to restore the productive areas as well as open forest, to recover up to 47% of landscape connectivity. In this sense, it was proposed a productive restoration strategy to enrich open forests and create biodiversity-friendly habitat in agricultural areas, using species with high socioecological potential. We believe that the same approach could be applied to other highly human-modified tropical landscapes with similar socioecological problems.