2000年9月12日兴海6.6级地震短期预报的总结及反思

通过分析2000年9月12日兴海6.6级地震的震前异常,认为震前异常演化具有明显的阶段性特征,即存在前兆场出现-地震活动场的变化-前兆场的转折变化-地震活动场和前兆场继承性同时变化-宏观(含动物异常)和微观的巨变异常-发生强震的过程。     

多次覆盖技术在探地雷达勘探中的应用

多次覆盖技术作为一种增强信号、压制干扰的方法,广泛用于地震勘探工作中,可以大大提高有用信号的信噪比。本文作者把多次覆盖技术引入探地雷达测量工作中,通过与剖面法作对比试验来论证多次覆盖技术在探地雷达勘探中应用的可行性及优缺点。作者根据试验资料总结探地雷达工作中雷达波传播规律、工作参数、资料处理方法,对丰富探地雷达勘探技术作了一次有益的尝试。     

Rescue Operations and Demolition Works: Automating the Pneumatic Removal of Small Pieces of Rubble and Combination of Suction Plants with Demolition Machines

The main problem in the rescue of people buried alive in damaged buildings are pieces of rubble with a diameter less than 150 mm. Since they cover the whole site, it is neither possible to scrutinize the structure of the rubble nor to estimate the dimensions of beams, columns, and parts of ceilings. The central idea of a project at the University of Karlsruhe, Institute for Technology and Management in Construction, is the automatic removal of small pieces of rubble by a suction unit. The computer-controlled pipe which is fastened to the boom of an excavator automatically follows the structure of the heap of rubble. Therefore, it can also work in areas which are out of the driver’s visible range. The suction plant replaces the dangerous manual removal which is current standard. Furthermore, a pneumatic extraction system has been designed and constructed in combination with demolition machinery, e.g. crushers and dry wire-saw technologies, to immediately suck off the crushed material (reinforced concrete, masonry).     

Characteristics of China’s oil and gas pool formation in latest geological history

The structural activities took place extensively in the Asia continent during the Cenozoic era owing to the strong continent-to-continent collision and continuous compression between the India Plate and the Eurasia Plate. Huang Jiqing called such structural activities Himalayan movement. China’s sedimentary basins developed and took shape mainly during the Himalayan movement period. It is also the main period for formation and development of the oil and gas reservoirs. Of 366 large and medium-sized oil and gas fields currently found in China, 212 reservoirs were formed in the Neogene-Quaternary period. The proportion is as high as 68.2%. The oil and gas migration and accumulation in the latest geological period, which were controlled by the times, properties, styles and strength of the Himalayan movement, took place mainly in eight regions, such as the low uplift area of Bohai Sea, the onshore faulted sag area of Bohai Bay, anticlinorium zone in Daqing, the foreland fold-and-thrust belt in West China, the tilted structural zone in West China, the cratonic palaeohigh in the Tarim Basin, the zone of fault and fold belt in the East Sichuan Basin, and the biological gas zone in the East Qaidam Basin. The oil and gas pool formations in those regions have their own characteristics. With the great potential and broad prospect, those regions are the main exploration areas in China in the future.     

Seismicity before and after the two great Sumatra earthquakes of 2004 and 2005

The Harvard CMT catalogue contains 481 shallow earthquakes that occurred between 1 January 1977 and 30 November 2005 within a broad region defined by the geographical latitude from 3°S to 14°N and by the longitude from 91°E to 102°E. There are 230 events that occurred before the great earthquake of 26 December 2004. Their surface distribution is not uniform and the source area of the 2004 great event appears as an area of seismic quiescence with a radius of about 100 km. There are 186 events that occurred between the two great earthquakes of 26 December 2004 and 28 March 2005. Practically all of them are located to the northwest from the great earthquake of 2005, that in turn was followed by 63 events, mostly located to the southeast. The cumulative seismic moment from earthquakes before the occurrence of the great event of 2004 increased rather regularly with time, with sudden increase about twenty years and two years before the occurrence of the great event. The seismic moment of earthquakes between the two great events increased rapidly during the first ten-fifteen days, then flattened out and increased slowly with time. After the great event of 2005 the seismic moment shows quiet increase during some 115 days, then sudden jump, followed by very small activity till the end of our observations. From the spatial distribution of seismic moment of earthquakes that occurred before the great event of 2004 it follows that its largest release appeared to the southeast from the great event, around the rupture area of the great earthquake of 2005. The largest release of seismic moment from earthquakes between the two great events is observed in the vicinity of the 2004 event and further up to the north. The seismic moment from earthquakes that occurred after the great event of 2005 was mostly released in its vicinity and further down to the south.     

The formation evaluation tool and its application in offshore China

The Formation Evaluation Tool （FET） introduced in the paper represents a new generation of formation evaluation systems developed and manufactured by China Oilfield Services Limited （COSL）, CNOOC, using a FET technology transfer from Crocker Research, Australia. The system has been applied successfully in the Bohai Sea and South China Sea. For instance, a multilayered oil and water system has been confirmed with the aid of accurate formation pressure tests, even in very thin beds and edge water reservoirs, overcoming the difficulty of determining this kind of oil-water and gas-water contacts. Moreover, the FET pumping and real-time fluid monitoring function allows acquiring a true sample of formation fluid unpolluted by drilling mud which plays an important role in determining the fluid properties of the target stratum and analyzing the fluid component. The principles and purpose of the Formation Evaluation Tool （FET） will be briefly introduced and successful examples of the application of the technology will be described in detail in this paper.     

Calculation of reflection and transmission coefficients for qP waves incident on a planar interface between isotropic and triclinic media

In the paper by Chattopadhyay and Rajneesh (2006, “Reflection and refraction of waves at the interface of an isotropic medium over a highly anisotropic medium’, Acta Geophysica, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 239–249), the authors proposed a process to calculate R/T (reflection and transmission) coefficients at the interface between isotropic and triclinic half-spaces, with incident qP waves in triclinic media. Unfortunately, besides several misprints, the authors made a fatal assumption that there is no transmitted SH wave generated in isotropic media, which led the successive analytical derivations and numerical calculations thoroughly wrong. In this paper, the errors are analyzed at length and corrections are given. Then an alternative approach to solve the problem is proposed and numerical results are shown and discussed.     

Variations of near-surface atmospheric CO2 and H2O concentrations during summer on Muztagata

Expeditions during the summers of 2002 and 2003 implemented continuous monitoring of near-surface (2 m height) atmospheric CO₂ and H₂O concentrations at the 4500 m elevation on Muztagata. The resultant data sets reveal a slight decrease of CO₂ concentrations (of about 5 μmol·mol^-1) and changes in the diurnal variations from the end of June to the middle August. The daily maximum CO₂ concentrations occur between 02:30-05:30 AM (local time) and the minimum levels occur between 12:00-15:30 PM. The atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the summer of 2002 were around 5 μmol·mol^-1 lower than those during the same period of 2003, whereas the diurnal amplitude was higher. In contrast, we found that the daily mean atmospheric H₂O content in 2003 was much lower than that in 2002 and there exists a striking negative correlation between CO₂ and H₂O concentrations. We therefore suggest that the near-surface atmospheric CO₂ concentration is affected not only by photosynthesis and respiration, but also by the air H₂O content in the glaciated region around Muztagata.     

A modified ISBA surface scheme for modeling the hydrology of Athabasca River Basin with GCM-scale data

A soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer model (SVAT), interactions between the soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) of Météo France, is modified and applied to the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) to model its water and energy fluxes. Two meteorological datasets are used: the archived forecasts from the Meteorological Survey of Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) and the European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40), representing spatial scales typical of a weather forecasting model and a global circulation model (GCM), respectively. The original treatment of soil moisture and rainfall in ISBA (OISBA) is modified to statistically account for sub-grid heterogeneity of soil moisture and rainfall to produce new, highly non-linear formulations for surface and sub-surface runoff (MISBA). These new formulations can be readily applied to most existing SVATs. Stand alone mode simulations using the GEM data demonstrate that MISBA significantly improves streamflow predictions despite requiring two fewer parameters than OISBA. Simulations using the ERA-40 data show that it is possible to reproduce the annual variation in monthly, mean annual, and annual minimum flows at GCM scales without using downscaling techniques. Finally, simulations using a simple downscaling scheme show that the better performance of higher resolution datasets can be primarily attributed to improved representation of local variation of land cover, topography, and climate.     

Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。