The spring prediction barrier in ENSO hindcast experiments using the FGOALS-g model

The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil (FGOALS-g) was used to study the spring prediction barrier (SPB) in an ensemble system. This coupled model was developed and maintained at the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG). There are two steps in our hindcast experiments. The first is to integrate the coupled model continuously with sea surface temperature (SST) nudging, from 1971 to 2006. The second is to carry out a series of one-year hindcasts without SST nudging, by adopting initial values from the first step on January 1 st , April 1st , July 1st , and October 1st , from 1982 to 2005. We generate 10 ensemble members for a particular start date (1st ) by choosing different atmospheric and land conditions around the hindcast start date (1st through 10th ). To estimate the predicted SST, two methods are used: (1) Anomaly Correlation Coefficient and its rate of decrease; and (2) Talagrand distribution and its standard deviation. Results show that FGOALS-g offers a reliable ensemble system with realistic initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and high anomaly correlation (>0.5) within 6 month lead time. Further, the ensemble approach is effective, in that the anomaly correlation of ensemble mean is much higher than that of most individual ensemble members. The SPB exists in the FGOALS-g ensemble system, as shown by anomaly correlation and equal likelihood. Nevertheless, the role of the ensemble mean in reducing the SPB of ENSO prediction is significant. The rate of decrease of the ensemble mean is smaller than the largest deviations by 0.04-0.14. At the same time, the ensemble system "equal likelihood" declines during spring. An ensemble mean helps give a correct prediction direction, departing from largely-deviated ensemble members.     

西南地区夏季旱涝与厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)的关系分析

利用中国西南地区多个站点1951~2008年夏季逐月降水资料,1951~2008年的厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)指数(Nino3.4),对西南地区夏季旱涝与厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)的相关联系进行了分析,得出以下结论:前期厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)指数与中国西南地区的夏季降水存在一定的相关关系,如云南的中部,西部和南部,广西的西北部和贵州中部,东南部呈弱的负相关,除这几个地区都是呈现正相关。整个西南地区的相关系数,南部呈负正负,北部呈正的强弱强分布。合成分析表明:厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜事件发生后的夏季,西南地区降水距平基本呈现相反的分布特征。厄尔尼诺事件发生后,西南地区夏季降水较多,易造成涝灾;拉尼娜事件后,西南地区夏季降水较少,易造成旱灾。     

一个创新研究——大气数值模式变量的物理分解及其在极端事件预报中的应用

大气温度、湿度、位势高度和风等数值模式变量可以物理分解为纬圈-时间平均的对称部分和时间平均的非对称部分,以及行星尺度瞬变扰动和天气尺度瞬变扰动等四个部分.区域持续性干旱、暴雨、热浪、低温和雨雪冰冻等极端天气事件与前期及同期数值模式中的行星尺度和天气尺度大气扰动系统之间呈现出密切的关系.瞬变扰动天气图可成为预报极端天气事件的新工具.本文在归纳本期9篇原创性文章的基础上,探讨大气变量物理分解后需要进一步研究的理论问题和应用前景.     

The role of snow melting upon landslides in the central Argentinean Andes

This paper focuses on the historical range of variability of landslide activity and its relation to climate in the Aconcagua Park, Argentina. Landslide frequency data are obtained through historic compilation, including the review of more than 85 data sources and personal interviews with members of the local community. Based on these records, the study analyzes major landslide triggering mechanisms and evaluates the role of climate. Slope instability in Aconcagua Park appears to be mainly forced by the melting of snow accumulated during the winter season, which in turn promotes soil saturation and landslide occurrence the following spring–summer (December–February). This finding is supported by a strong correlation between landslides and stream flows of Andean rivers. These peaks occur during warmer seasons, fed by snow and ice‐glacier melting. In contrast, the correlation between landslide frequency and precipitation (diary/accumulative/monthly/annual) is less certain; and the relationship of landslide to temperature records (mean annual temperature/mean temperature during November–February period) is weak. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

陆地沉积物对大洋缺氧事件的响应：六盘山群黑色页岩地球化学特征及其意义

通过对六盘山群中上部湖相沉积中一层黑色页岩年代（113.45~112.98 Ma）及其下部泥灰岩的元素地球化学特征研究发现,黑色页岩形成于干热而相对湿润气候背景下的缺氧还原环境中,与典型缺氧事件黑色页岩的地球化学特征基本一致,说明该黑色页岩记录了六盘山地区对全球白垩纪大洋缺氧事件OAE1b (约113～111 Ma)的响应,可能指示该期大洋缺氧事件是一次全球性的气候变化事件。     

吉兰泰盐湖的形成及指示的环境意义

选择位于季风边缘区的吉兰泰盐湖为研究对象,利用OSL和14C测年手段重建湖面波动历史,探讨盐湖形成年代与环境变化过程。通过大范围的野外调查发现,在该湖泊南部地区发育高于现代干盐滩9 m的湖滨砂沉积,上覆风成砂沉积,其中湖滨沉积物的OSL年代为6.7 ka BP前后,表明当时该湖泊处于浅水状态,此后湖水经历了快速的下降过程。对于盐湖中心剖面点盐层之下粘土层的14C测年显示,在5 500 aBP以来,集聚大量的石膏、芒硝和石盐等蒸发盐类,该湖泊进入成盐期。通过区域对比发现,吉兰泰湖面快速下降阶段与季风边缘区中全新世干旱事件发生时间相对应。研究认为,吉兰泰盐类矿物的开始沉积,反映了中全新世阿拉善高原区域环境的突然变化,可能指示着5.5 Cal ka BP前后干旱事件的发生。     

Rock varnish microlamination dating of late Quaternary geomorphic features in the drylands of western USA

Varnish microlamination (VML) dating is a correlative age determination technique that can be used to date and correlate various geomorphic features in deserts. In this study, we establish a generalized late Quaternary (i.e., 0–300 ka) varnish layering sequence for the drylands of western USA and tentatively correlate it with the SPECMAP oxygen isotope record. We then use this climatically correlated varnish layering sequence as a correlative dating tool to determine surface exposure ages for late Quaternary geomorphic features in the study region. VML dating of alluvial fan deposits in Death Valley of eastern California indicates that, during the mid to late Pleistocene, 5–15 ky long aggradation events occurred during either wet or dry climatic periods and that major climate shifts between glacial and interglacial conditions may be the pacemaker for alteration of major episodes of fan aggradation. During the Holocene interglacial time, however, 0.5–1 ky long brief episodes of fan deposition may be linked to short periods of relatively wet climate. VML dating of alluvial desert pavements in Death Valley and the Mojave Desert reveals that pavements can be developed rapidly (< 10 ky) during the Holocene (and probably late Pleistocene) in the arid lowlands (< 800 m msl) of these regions; but once formed, they may survive for 74–85 ky or even longer without being significantly disturbed by geomorphic processes operative at the pavement surface. Data from this study also support the currently accepted, “being born at the surface” model of desert pavement formation. VML dating of colluvial boulder deposits on the west slope of Yucca Mountain, southern Nevada, yields a minimum age of 46 ka for the emplacement of these deposits on the slope, suggesting that they were probably formed during the early phase of the last glaciation or before. These results, combined with those from our previous studies, demonstrate that VML dating has great potential to yield numerical age estimates for various late Quaternary geomorphic features in the western USA drylands.     

Glacier mass balance variability in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru and its relationship with climate and the large-scale circulation

A 41-year-long reconstructed annual mean glacier mass balance record from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, was investigated for its climate sensitivity toward temperature, humidity and precipitation, and its links with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales precipitation variability appears to be the main driver for glacier mass balance fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca. This is corroborated by an analysis of the relationship between mass balance variations and local- to regional-scale precipitation variability. Temperature tends to enhance precipitation in driving the mass balance signal, as dry years are often characterized by warm conditions, while wet years usually coincide with cold anomalies. In some years, however, warm and wet or cold and dry conditions coincide, under which circumstances temperature minimizes or even neutralizes the effects of precipitation. Surface energy balance studies have shown that changes in atmospheric humidity significantly affect the melt rates of tropical glaciers, but the lack of long and high-quality in-situ measurements precludes a detailed quantitative assessment of its role on interannual timescales in the Cordillera Blanca. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific exert the dominant large-scale forcing on interannual time scales, leading to negative mass balance anomalies during El Niño and above average mass balance during La Niña episodes. In general the teleconnection mechanism linking ENSO with glacier mass balance is similar to what has previously been described for the Bolivian Altiplano region. Changes in the upper-tropospheric zonal flow aloft associated with ENSO conditions determine the amount of snowfall during the wet season and thereby significantly affect the glacier mass balance. Because this teleconnection mechanism is spatially unstable and oscillates latitudinally along the subtropical Andes, it affects the Cordillera Blanca in most, but not all years. The relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance is therefore characterized by occasional ‘break downs’, more common since the mid-1970's, when El Niño years with above average mass balance and La Niña events with negative mass balance have been observed.     

The influence of ENSO on sea surface temperature variations in the China seas

Positive SST anomalies usually appear in remote ocean such as the China seas during an ENSO event.By analyzing the monthly data of HadISST from 1950 to 2007,it shows that the interannual component of SST anomalies peak approximately 10 months after SST anomalies peak in the eastern equatorial Pacific.As the ENSO event progresses,the positive SST anomalies spread throughout the China seas and eastward along the Kuroshio extension.Atmospheric reanalysis data demonstrate that changes in the net surface heat flux entering into the China seas are responsible for the SST variability.During El Ni o,the western north Pacific anticyclone is generated,with anomalous southwester lies prevailing along the East Asian coast.This anticyclone reduces the mean surface wind speed which decreases the surface heat flux and then increases the SST.The delays between the developing of this anticyclone and the south Indian Ocean anticyclone with approximately 3–6 months cause the 2–3 months lag of the surface heat flux between the China seas and the Indian Ocean.The northwestern Pacific anticyclone is the key process bridging the warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific and that in the China seas.     

Seismic activity recorded by a single OBS/H near the active Longqi hydrothermal vent at the ultraslow spreading Southwest Indian Ridge (49°39′ E)

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we describe the results of a first pilot experiment of passive seismic monitoring near the active Longqi hydrothermal vent at the Southwest Indian Ridge during Chinese cruise DY115-30. During 102-day experiment, we recorded over 2,000 seismic events on a single ocean bottom seismometer with hydrophone close to the hydrothermal field. We classified these events into the following three classes based on their time–frequency characteristics: (1) volcano tectonic microearthquakes (VTMs); (2) regional earthquakes; (3) short-duration events (SDEs). We preliminarily located the 1,277 VTMs using a single-station location method. Our results revealed hypocenters primarily beneath the axial valley ridge which is about 10?km away from hydrothermal vent and extending to the upper mantle at a depth of 15?km. Two discrete swarms of VTMs occurred during our survey period. The SDEs show a complex frequency characteristics ascribed to clusters of monochromatic waves around different frequencies. This suggests that SDEs result from combination of harmonic waves resonating in fluid-filled pipes and cracks.