Fragility and risk assessment of freestanding building contents

Multistorey buildings often have a valuable inventory consisting of objects that their possible damage during an earthquake will cause unacceptable losses. The paper presents a novel, fully performance-based seismic reliability and risk assessment framework for freestanding structural components and contents that can be modelled as rocking rigid blocks. The seismic response of building contents depends on several parameters such as the geometry of the object, the dynamic characteristics of the building and the storey that the object is located. The demand at the storey level is first obtained, and then the response of the contents is calculated using the storey acceleration response history. The demand of the structure is obtained with the aid of a modified version of the Incremental Dynamic Analysis method and subsequently the fragility curves of the rocking building contents are derived for every storey of interest. Different options for fragility assessment are discussed, and the underlying details of the problem are investigated. A simplified approach, where the fragility of the freestanding components and the structure are derived separately, is also presented. The method combines existing fragility curves and thus is suitable for quickly assessing the reliability of a building's inventory, offering sufficient risk estimates.     

不同强度El Ni(n)o的衰减过程.Ⅰ,强El Ni(n)o的衰减过程

将1951～2004年期间的12次El Nino事件分为强、中等、较弱和弱4类,结果发现,强和较弱El Nino衰减进入La Nina,但是中等和弱El Nino衰减进入平常态.因此,El Nino的衰减结果与自身强度之间存在密切的非线性关系.进一步的研究表明,负异常信号自西太平洋向中东太平洋的东传主导了强El Nino事件向La Nina的转变过程,其具体动力过程类似于西太平洋振子理论.热带西北太平洋（WNP）大气异常反气旋在强El Nino位相转变中起核心作用,它的维持和缓慢东移是赤道东风异常维持和发展的原因,而后者通过激发Kelvin波导致了ENSO从El Nino向La Nina的转变.     

苏鲁豫皖地区地磁异常场时空近期动态演化特征

以苏鲁豫皖地区2005年至2008年四期地磁矢量场的观测数据为基础,分别建立了该区域的F、D、I三个独立分量四期的地磁异常场模型。通过对郯庐断裂带中段地磁异常场时空动态演化特征分析,发现该区域的F、D、I分量地磁异常场形态在2005年11月九江地震前后出现了较大程度的变化,甚至出现了地磁正负异常场的反转,从2007年春季至2008年春季,该区域地磁异常场分布形态基本保持稳定。     

用路径积分法求解电子的衍射态

本文用费曼的路径积分方法求解出自由电子经狭缝衍射后的量子态及在观察屏处的几率分布，所得结果与光子的夫琅和费衍射相同。     

地下管网数据的动态更新技术研究

结合城市地下管网数据的现状,建立地下管网数据的时空数据结构;针对较少数据量的竣工测量数据和较大数据量的普查数据分别采用了基于要素和基于范围的更新方法,同时建立起数据的历史回溯机制,实现任意时间点数据的查询展示。实实在在解决了地下管网数据的现势性以及历史数据维护问题。     

马尔可夫链模型在地下水水位预测中的应用

作者将鲁南地区一水文观测孔的９２次地下水水位月平均监测数据,划分了１０种状态范围,运用马尔可夫链模型,对未来地下水水位进行状态范围预测。在与实际监测资料进行对比的基础上,验证了马尔可夫链理论在地下水水位预测中的可行性及可靠性,并对运用中的具体问题进行了探讨。     

瞬态瑞雷面波法在吉林市松江路工程勘察中的应用

介绍瞬态瑞雷面波在工程勘查中的应用,面波勘探原理和数据处理及解释方法。     

Stream-coordinate structure of oceanic jets based on merged altimeter data

The jet structure of the Southern Ocean front south of Australia is studied in stream-coordinate with a new altimeter product—Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) from AVISO. The accuracy of the ADT data is validated with the mooring data from a two-year subantarctic-front experiment. It is demonstrated that the ADT is consistent with in-situ measurements and captures the meso-scale activity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Stream-coordinate analysis of ADT surface geostrophic flows finds that ACC jets exhibit large spatio-temporal variability and do not correspond to particular streamfunction values. In the circumpolar scope ACC jets display a transient fragmented pattern controlled by topographic features. The poleward shift of jet in streamfunction space, as revealed by a streamwise correlation method, indicates the presence of meridional fluxes of zonal momentum. Such cross-stream eddy fluxes concentrate the broad ACC baroclinic flow into narrow jets. Combined with a recent discovery of gravest empirical mode (GEM) in the thermohaline fields, the study clarifies the interrelationship among front, jet and streamfunction in the Southern Ocean.     

具有随机状态转移矩阵的Kalman滤波

讨论状态转移矩阵为随机性矩阵时的Kalman滤波方法,并给出滤波的具体算法及分析滤波的收敛特性和参数的取值范围。通过实际算例证实了该滤波方法的有效性。     

基于模糊分类的UBGM(1,1)-Markov模型在露天矿边坡沉降预测中的应用

针对UBGM(1,1)-Markov模型中存在2个邻近值可能被归属到不同状态,导致预测值产生偏差的问题,结合模糊分类理论,构建基于模糊分类的无偏灰色-马尔科夫模型(unbiased gray-Markov model based on fuzzy classification, FC-UBGM(1,1)-Markov)。首先对UBGM(1,1)模型进行残差修正,然后将修正后拟合值的相对残差序列作为Markov链进行区间划分,再结合模糊分类的隶属度函数,计算相对残差的模糊向量,根据隶属度确定其所属的状态。实际算例表明,该模型比传统UBGM(1,1)-Markov模型的预测效果更好。