利用一维时间序列重建动力系统的初步研究

通过对月平均气温一维时间序列作相空间拓展,和假定相空间状态变量随时间的演化方程含有线性和非线性二次项,再根据拓展后的资料进行拟合,利用最小二乘法求出各项系数,保留其方差贡献大的项,以重建动力系统.实际计算结果表明,重建的低阶动力系统有可能对月平均气温所表征的短期气候演化过程的非线性特性作出描写.     

模拟人类活动影响气候变化的新进展

文章给出近几年国内外研究人类活动影响全球气候变化的数值模拟的新进展。     

地球内部物质组成及其性质的研究

地球内部物质组成的研究涉及对地表现象的深入解释,与地球动力学、地球热结构及宇宙演化有着密切的关系.本文综述了这方面的研究结果及近期的进展,指出两种地幔模型的主要分歧点,讨论了地幔中的主要相变及与间断面的关系,对今后研究提出四点意见.     

黄河中下游地区旱涝分型及突变的初步分析

采用CEOF(复经验正交函数)对黄河中下游地区15个代表站点近500年来的旱涝等级指数分析结果表明,历史时期本地区的旱涝分布特点可用三种分布型表征:平均型、东西反相型和南北反相型,对上述三种旱涝分布型的时间振幅,应用Mann-Kendall方法进行突变检验,可以发现平均型和东西反相型近500年来发生旱涝突变,而南北反相型则相对比较稳定。     

流域地貌系统的侵蚀演化与耗散结构

通过耗散结构的方法和概念,建立了流域地貌系统中熵产生和超熵产生的表达式。以此分析了流域系统的动力学机制,以黄土高原丘陵沟壑区为例,建立了流域地貌系统的侵蚀演化模型。定量描述了黄土高原丘陵沟壑区流域系统的侵蚀旋回,确定了流域的发育阶段。分析了流域系统侵蚀状况的空间不均匀性。     

华北平原下垫面荒漠化和绿化对气候的影响

从大气热力学能量方程,水汽守恒方程以及降水与大气水汽含量和相对湿度的经验关系出发,本文假定大尺度环流不受地表下垫面变化的影响,不考虑大气辐射吸收与水汽和温度的反馈作用,对大气和地表能量过程作参数化处理,建立了一个反映区域年平均温度和降水的变化与地表反射率和波恩比变化之间的关系。计算分析表明,对于线性尺度为550km的华北平原来说,如果地表下垫面从目前状态变成沙漠的话,年平均温度将增加2.14°C,年降水量将减少536.1mm。如果华北平原全部绿化、年平均温度变化不大,年降水量可增加21.2mm。     

佛山市近30年来能见度变化趋势的分析

本文分析了近30年来各季能见度≤4或10km出现时数的变化趋势。结果表明,佛山市能见度呈加速恶化的趋势。能见度的变化趋势与相对湿度关系不大,但与地面风向却有明显的关系。     

Last interglacial sea levels on the south coast of New South Wales

Remnants of the Last Interglacial shoreline occur at Middle Lagoon on the far south coast of New South Wales. Relict beach sediments can be traced to a height of at least +4.8 m and are indicative of a former mean sea level of about +3 m. Thermoluminescence (TL) ages of 126 ± 13 ka and 114 ± 15 ka were determined for beach and aeolian facies respectively. Sands in the lower part of an exposure on the adjacent Gillards Beach gave TL ages of 108 ± 13 ka, but sands in the upper part of that exposure gave an age of 19.9 ± 3.5 ka. This chronological evidence of a stratigraphic unconformity in what was initially taken as pedogenic differentiation at Gillards Beach is supported by contrasting electron traps and colour centres in crystal lattices of quartz grains in these two samples. No tectonic displacement is apparent. This site provides the first evidence of the Last Interglacial sea level for 1000 km along the coast between Gippsland and Newcastle.     

浅议我国北方地区的沙漠化问题

本文根据作者在我国沙漠地区的多年研究工作,对沙漠化的概念含义、我国沙漠化的成因和沙漠化现状等问题提出了看法。     

Results from a new model of river basin evolution

This paper briefly describes a model of the erosional development of catchments and their channel networks. The model differentiates between the dominant transport processes in hillslope and channels. The development of channels and hillslopes occurs in an integrated manner as a function of physically observable mechanisms. The growth of a river basin is qualitatively described. The model concepts are used to study the basin during periods of growth (transient periods), as well as during dynamic equilibrium. This leads to hypotheses about the relationship between slopes, relief, tectonic uplift, erodability, runoff, and catchment area. It is shown that the model leads to very reasonable and desirable behaviour of hillslopes during retreat and degradation.