潍坊市耕地资源动态变化及驱动力分析

潍坊市是国家重要的农副产品生产基地。近几年来,随着经济的发展,耕地资源迅速退化和流失,使得人口与耕地的矛盾日渐突出。通过对相关数据的分析,揭示了潍坊市自改革开放以来耕地资源的变化趋势。运用定性和定量的方法对耕地数量变化的驱动因子进行了分析;并结合潍坊市耕地资源利用的具体情况,提出保护耕地的对策与建议。     

Scleractinian coral population size structures and growth rates indicate coral resilience on the fringing reefs of North Jamaica

Coral reefs throughout the world are under severe challenges from many environmental factors. This paper quantifies the size structure of populations and the growth rates of corals from 2000 to 2008 to test whether the Discovery Bay coral colonies showed resilience in the face of multiple acute stressors of hurricanes and bleaching. There was a reduction in numbers of colonies in the smallest size class for all the species at all the sites in 2006, after the mass bleaching of 2005, with subsequent increases for all species at all sites in 2007 and 2008. Radial growth rates (mm yr⁻¹) of non-branching corals and linear extension rates (mm yr⁻¹) of branching corals calculated on an annual basis from 2000–2008 showed few significant differences either spatially or temporally. At Dairy Bull reef, live coral cover increased from 13 ± 5% in 2006 to 20 ± 9% in 2007 and 31 ± 7% in 2008, while live Acropora species increased from 2 ± 2% in 2006 to 10 ± 4% in 2007 and 22 ± 7% in 2008. These studies indicate good levels of coral resilience on the fringing reefs around Discovery Bay in Jamaica.     

东海内陆架泥质沉积区全新世古环境变迁:有孔虫证据

对东海内陆架MD06-3040柱状样257个沉积物样品进行了有孔虫及其氧碳稳定同位素分析,应用底栖有孔虫组合和不同生态(表生/内生、内陆架/中外陆架)种的丰度,浮游有孔虫Globigerina.bulloides和Globigeri-noides.ruber的丰度及其稳定同位素记录,探讨了研究区全新世10.6cal.kaBP以来的古环境变迁。分析结果揭示了研究区全新世早期海面快速上升,沉积环境由滨岸内陆架(10.6～9.9cal.kaBP)、内陆架外缘(9.9～8.1cal.kaBP)转变至中陆架并达全新世最高海面(7.7～7.2cal.kaBP)。台湾暖流在8.0cal.kaBP起开始发育,并在6.0～2.8和0.7～0cal.kaBP两个时期派生出明显的上升流。台湾暖流及其所派生的上升流是造成东海陆架泥质快速沉积的最主要原因。采用浮游有孔虫G.bulloides的丰度变化,推测浙闽沿岸流在5.1cal.kaBP之前较弱,之后显著增强,其中在5.1～2.8cal.kaBP时期最为强盛。     

Long-term bottom water warming in the north Ross Sea

We measured potential temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen profiles from the surface to the bottom at two locations in the north Ross Sea (65.2°S, 174.2°E and 67.2°S, 172.7°W) in December 2004. Comparison of our data with previous results from the same region reveals an increase in potential temperature and decreases in salinity and dissolved oxygen concentration in the bottom layer (deeper than 3000 m) over the past four decades. The changes were significantly different from the analytical precisions. Detailed investigation of the temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and σ ₃ value distributions and the bottom water flow in the north Ross Sea suggests a long-term change in water mass mixing balance. That is to say, it is speculated that the influence of cool, saline, high-oxygen bottom water (high-salinity Ross Sea Bottom Water) formed in the southwestern Ross Sea has possibly been decreased, while the influences of relatively warmer and fresher bottom water (low-salinity Ross Sea Bottom Water) and the Adélie Land Bottom Water coming from the Australia-Antarctic Basin have increased. The possible impact of global warming on ocean circulation needs much more investigation.     

Possibility of recent changes in vertical distribution and size composition of chlorophyll-a in the western North Pacific region

Our analysis of the last three decades of retrospective data of vertical distributions and size composition of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) over the western North Pacific has revealed significant changes of three indices related to Chl-a during summer season, as follows: (1) decreasing linear trend of the proportion of Chl-a in surface layer to that of the whole water column by 0.4 and 2.3% year⁻¹ in the subtropical area along 137°E (STA₁₃₇) during 1972 to 1997 and in the Kuroshio Extension area along 175°E (KEA₁₇₅) during 1990 to 2001; (2) increasing linear trend of the depth of subsurface Chl-a maximum (DCM) by 0.4 and 2.6 m year⁻¹ in STA₁₃₇ and KEA₁₇₅; and (3) decreasing linear trend of larger-size Chl-a (>3 μm) by 0.1 and 2.5% year⁻¹ in STA₁₃₇ and KEA₁₇₅, respectively. Water density (σ _θ ) at 75 m depth had also decreased by 0.006 and 0.05 year⁻¹ in STA₁₃₇ and KEA₁₇₅, respectively. The ratio of biogenic opal to biogenic CaCO₃ in the sinking flux decreased by 0.015 year⁻¹ in the subtropical region from 1997 to 2005. These findings may indicate that the subsurface chlorophyll maximum is deepening and larger phytoplankton such as diatoms has been decreasing during the past decade, associated with the decreasing density of surface water caused by warming in the western North Pacific, especially in the summer.     

Comparison of the response of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic during the warm periods of the 1920s–1960s and the 1990s–2000s

Concern about future anthropogenic warming has lead to demands for information on what might happen to fish and fisheries under various climate-change scenarios. One suggestion has been to use past events as a proxy for what will happen in the future. In this paper a comparison between the responses of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to two major warm periods in the North Atlantic during the 20th century is carried out to determine how reliable the past might be as a predictor of the future. The first warm period began during the 1920s, remained relatively warm through the 1960s, and was limited primarily to the northern regions (>60°N). The second warm period, which again covered the northern regions but also extended farther south (30°N), began in the 1990s and has continued into the present century. During the earlier warm period, the most northern of the cod stocks (West Greenland, Icelandic, and Northeast Arctic cod in the Barents Sea) increased in abundance, individual growth was high, recruitment was strong, and their distribution spread northward. Available plankton data suggest that these cod responses were driven by bottom-up processes. Fishing pressure increased during this period of high cod abundance and the northern cod stocks began to decline, as early as the 1950s in the Barents Sea but during the 1960s elsewhere. Individual growth declined as temperatures cooled and the cod distributions retracted southward. During the warming in the 1990s, the spawning stock biomass of cod in the Barents Sea again increased, recruitment rose, and the stock spread northward, but the individual growth did not improve significantly. Cod off West Greenland also have shown signs of improving recruitment and increasing biomass, albeit they are still very low in comparison to the earlier warming period. The abundance of Icelandic cod, on the other hand, has remained low through the recent warm period and spawning stock biomass and total biomass are at levels near the lowest on record. The different responses of cod to the two warm events, in particular the reduced cod production during the recent warm period, are attributed to the effects of intense fishing pressure and possibly related ecosystem changes. The implications of the results of the comparisons on the development of cod scenarios under future climate change are addressed.     

广东博贺澙湖潮滩的冲淤变化及其动力作用分析

基于遥感技术,对反映17 a来博贺澙湖的5景遥感影像定量反演潮滩水边线,在此基础上推算澙湖潮滩的沉积与冲刷速率,同时对引起潮滩变化的动力作用进行探讨,结果表明博贺澙湖的潮滩以淤展为主,其中处于开敞地段的澙湖潮滩出现冲刷,遮蔽岸段的澙湖潮滩淤积,控制澙湖潮滩变化的主要因子是包括圈围潮滩成盐田、虾池以及鱼塘等的人类活动.     

Wavelet analysis and nonparametric test for climate change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang during 1959–2006

Using wavelet analysis, regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed time-series (1959–2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Major findings are as follows: 1) In the 48-year study period, average annual temperature, annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends. 2) At the 16-year time scale, all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter. At the 8-year time scale, an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices. Incidentally, they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards. The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases. 3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale, which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001. 4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend, as represented by the rising average annual temperature, was remarkable, but the climate wetting trend, as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity, was not obvious.     

Livelihood strategy change and land use change —Case of Danzam Village in upper Dadu River watershed, Tibetan Plateau of China

Land use change in rural China since the 1980s, induced by institution reforms, urbanization, industrialization and population increase, has received more attention. However, case studies on how institution reforms affect farmers’ livelihood strategies and drive land use change are scarce. By means of cropland plots investigations and interviews with farmers, this study examines livelihood strategy change and land use change in Danzam Village of Jinchuan County in the upper Dadu River watershed, eastern Tibetan Plateau, China. The results show that, during the collective system period, as surplus labor forces could not be transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries, they had to choose agricultural involution as their livelihood strategy, then the farmers had to produce more grains by land reclamation, increasing multiple cropping index, improving input of labor, fertilizer, pesticide and adopting advanced agricultural techniques. During the household responsibility system period, as labors being transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries, farmers chose livelihood diversification strategy. Therefore, labor input to grain planting was greatly reduced, which drove the transformation of grain to horticulture, vegetable or wasteland and decrease of multiple cropping index. This study provides a new insight into understanding linkages among institution reforms, livelihood strategy of smallholders and land use change in rural China. Foundation item: Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40601006, 40471009), National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2005CB422006)     

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