面向未来的海面变化研究

长期以来以地质时期海面变化过程等理论性研究为主要方向的海面变化研究经过７０年代在观念、方法和资料积累方面的突破，自８０年代初期以来进入了以“面向未来”为基调的成熟发展的新阶段，出现了一大批关于未来海面变化幅度及其影响和对策的研究成果，形成了较为完整的研究体系。９０年代初以来的几年间，世界海面研究的活跃领域是地质历史时期（例如ＬＧＭ，５ｅ等阶段）的海面实况、极地冰原对气候变化的反应、海面控制原理、海面模型以及绝对海面的航天测量技术与应用等方面。这一情况在一定程度上体现了“预测热”之后的“冷思考”。中国海面变化研究近年来取得了令世人瞩目的迅速发展，今后应注意引进先进技术方法，加强学科间的交叉合作，发掘自身的优势，向纵深发展     

哺乳动物群指示的气候旋回——以周口店早更新世哺乳动物群为例

文章根据对周口店地区四个哺乳动物群的分析，讨论了该区早更新世气候及生态环境的变迁。第１８地点显示了约１．９０ＭａＢ．Ｐ．的干凉气候和森林—草原植被。第１２地点指示了１．７０ＭａＢ．Ｐ．的湿热气候和茂密森林生态环境。东洞则记录了１．２０ＭａＢ．Ｐ．的干冷气候和草原景观。到第９地点时（约１．００～０．９０ＭａＢ．Ｐ．），气候炎热，森林和草原植被同时发育     

地震荷载下莫高窟围岩动态损伤特性研究

本以敦煌莫高窟为研究对象，阐述了地震荷载下洞窟围岩动态损伤的影响因素；采用动力有限元法。从地震动特性入手。分析研究了地震作用对洞窟围岩及其附属构筑物可能造成的损坏，为石窟物地震安全评估及防灾对策研究提供了依据。     

EFFECTS OF THREE KINDS OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON INTENSITY*

This paper designs three quasi-geostrophic barotropic models with a radial/horizontal grid length being 2 kin,one in the polar coordinates,one on a stationary typhoon circulation condition and another on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition in the Cartesian coordinates,to investigate the effects of azimuthal and radial linear advections,and nonlinear advection on the inward propagation of mesoscale vorticity and the changes of typhoon intensity.Results show that the azimuthal linear advection may result in the formation of spiral vorticity bands;the radial linear advection in a certain parameter set is able to transfer vorticity inwards,leading to a slight enhancement of typhoon;the nonlinear advection of perturbation vorticity on a stationary typhoon circulation condition may transfer more vorticities inwards,thus resulting in a distinct enhancement of typhoon;and the nonlinear advection on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition possesses duality,i.e.on the one hand,the advection increases the vorticity of inward propagation,thus favorable to the intensification of typhoon,and on the other hand,in the inward propagation process of vorticity the originally concentric and axisymmetric structure of typhoon basic flow is damaged,and a complex flow pattern forms,which in turn tends to weaken the circulation of typhoon.At last the paper discusses the possible applications of those results in typhoon intensity prediction.     

云南2001年施甸地震的剪切波分裂参数变化特征

云南地区2001年4月10日至6月8日相继发生了4月10日MＳ5.2、4月12日MＳ5.9和6月8日MＳ5.3的施甸地震. 本文利用云南遥测数字地震台网的保山地震台记录的地震波形资料，使用SAM分析方法（即剪切波分裂系统分析方法），采用地震应力预测的分析手段，对这个强震系列进行剪切波分裂参数变化特征的研究. 初步结果表明，随着地震活动的增强，剪切波分裂时间延迟值t基本呈现增加的特征，但在强震即将发生之前的短时间内，发生t减小的现象，符合我们早先研究发现的震前应力释放现象. 研究认为，在地震活动强烈的构造地区和有强震发生危险的经济发达地区或重要城市，开展强烈地震的应力预测应用实践，可以减轻地震的危害程度.      

华北地区700年来地壳应力场演化与地震的关系研究

目前地震断层相互作用问题已引起地震学家的广泛关注。许多研究表明一条断层的破裂可以影响附近其他断层趋于破裂的进程，两条断层间的确切作用取决于它们的相对位置、破裂机制、错动量和介质力学性质。本研究给出了华北地区700年来由于长期构造加载及地震断层错动导致的累积库仑破裂应力变化(ACCFS)的演化过程。长期构造加载场由GPS观测得到的地壳平均应变率场给出。关于历史地震断层破裂参数的估算，根据的是华北地区有现代仪器记录的大震资料归算地震烈度与断层破裂长度、震级和地震矩的统计关系；根据地质调查得到的地震断层走向、倾角以及本地区的构造应力场方向估计滑动角。考虑粘弹性成层介质地壳模型，计算长期构造加载和地震形变(同震及震后介质粘弹性驰豫变形)造成的累积应力场变化。将累积应力场变化投影到后续地震断层面和滑动方向上得到△CCFS，并研究其对后续地震发生的触发作用。对1303年以来华北地区发生的49个M≥6．5地震研究结果表明：ACCFS对48个后续地震中的38个有触发作用，触发率达到79．2％。应用当今累积应力场变化于华北地区1303年-2003年发生的M≥5地震，我们发现触发率达到75．5％，于1976年以来发生的M≥5地震触发率达82．1％。未被触发的地震中有些是发生在断层破裂区附近的余震，很可能是由于历史地震破裂参量估计的误差落入影区中，若排除这些影响，触发率会更高。研究表明ACCFS与发生的后续地震有很好的相关性。当前ACCFS显著上升的地区包括渤海及其邻域地区、西秦岭北缘断裂带、张家口-渤海地震带西端和太原盆地，其地震危险性应引起重视。     

全球、中国大陆和华北地区地震活动韵律性时变特征及趋势分析

基于Morlet小波变换，提出一种新的定量划分地震活跃期或平静期的分析方法，形成了根据复小波变换得到不同周期累加能谱极大值点变化、实小波变换振动周期谱时频分布以及指定周期的小波振动周期随时间变化的极值分布规律来研究地震活动韵律性及其时变特征的物理思路。通过对全球、中国大陆和华北地区浅源地震年释放能量的时间序列分析。对研究区强震活动的韵律性及其时变特征有了新的认识。根据目前强震活动具有的韵律性，结合历史地震活动情况，对未来研究区地震趋势进行了初步分析。     

Vicissitude of Sogo Nur and environmental-climatic change during last 1500 years

Lakes in arid zone are sensitive to climatic changes. The lacustrine sediment sequence in Sogo Nur has well and truly recorded climatic events such as the Sui-Tang Dynasty Warm Period, the Song-Liao Dynasty Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the 20th Century Warm Period. Commonly, the climate in warm Periods was relatively humid,accordingly the lake area extended and water level rose, and vice versa. Apart from climatic change, human activity is also an important factor of influencing lake vicissitude, and they played the dominant role alternatively during different periods; the factor of climatic change predominated in historical period, while since the beginning of the 20th century the utilization of water resources by human has became decisive.     

Interactive behavior of soil–pile-superstructure system in transient state to liquefaction by means of large shake table tests

Shaking table tests were conducted by means of a large-scale laminar box with 4 m in length, 2 m in width and 2 m in height in order to investigate behavior of a soil-pile-superstructure system in liquefiable ground. A model two-storey structure, supported by a pile group, was set in a saturated sand deposit, and subjected to a sinusoidal base motion with increasing amplitude. Discussions are focused on the transient behavior until soil liquefaction occurs. Main interests are characteristics of springs used in a sway-rocking model and a multi-freedom lumped mass (MFLM) model that are frequently used in soil–pile interaction analysis. The spring constant in the sway-rocking model is represented by restoring force characteristics at the pile head, and that in the MFLM system is represented by an interaction spring connecting the pile to the free field. The transient state prior to soil liquefaction is shown to be important in the design of a pile because dynamic earth pressure shows peak response in this state. The reduction of the stiffness due to excess porewater generation and strain dependent nonlinear behavior is evaluated.     

In-plane and anti-plane strong shaking of soil systems and structures

The concept of in-plane and anti-plane shaking is introduced with a rigid block on a plane surface with Coulomb friction. Using a hypoplastic constitutive relation to model the mechanical behaviour of the soil, numerical solutions for a rigid block on a thin dry or saturated soil layer are obtained. The coupled nature of dynamic problems involving granular materials is shown, i.e. the motion of the block changes the soil state—skeleton stresses and density—which in turn affects the block motion. Motions of the block as well as soil response can be more realistically calculated by the new model. The same constitutive equation is applied to the numerical simulation of the propagation of plane waves in homogeneous and layered level soil deposits induced by a wave coming from below. Experiments with a novel laminar shake box as well as real seismic records from well-documented sites during strong earthquakes are used to verify the adequacy of the hypoplasticity-based numerical model for the prediction of soil response during strong earthquakes. The response of a homogeneous earth dam subjected to in-plane and anti-plane shaking is investigated numerically. In-plane and anti-plane shaking is shown to cause nearly the same spreading of a sand dam under drained conditions, whereas under undrained conditions anti-plane shaking causes stronger spreading of the dam. The dynamic behaviour of a breakwater founded on rockfill and soft clay during the 1995 Kobe earthquake is back-calculated to show the good performance of the proposed numerical model also with a structure. Section 9 deals with buildings on mattresses of densified cohesionless soils or fine-grained soils with granular columns, slopes with ‘hidden’ dams and structures on piles traversing clayey slopes to show the suitability of hypoplasticity-based models for the earthquake-resistant design and safety assessment of geotechnical systems.