<Emphasis Type="Italic">An </Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">Inconvenient Truth</Emphasis>: a focus on its portrayal of the hydrologic cycle

An Inconvenient Truth (AIT) has earned Al Gore an Oscar and a share of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize and has been widely acclaimed by the mass media. However, significant errors exist in the film, owing to alarmism and exaggeration. As this forum does not provide for a detailed examination of these errors, this paper will focus only on the portrayal of the hydrologic cycle by AIT—precipitation and floods, soil moisture and droughts, and storminess. AIT argues that precipitation and intense rainfalls, floods, droughts, and the total number, intensity, and duration of tropical cyclones have all increased due exclusively to anthropogenically-driven climate change; indeed, AIT paints a picture of near scientific certainty with an overwhelming bias toward catastrophe scenarios. A closer look at the science, however, reveals that the data do not support these claims and that the scientific community is divided as to what the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the hydrologic cycle will be. Thus, the film gives a false impression of both the current state of climate change and that ‘the science is settled’.

The impact of extreme weather events on the seagrass Zostera noltii and related Hydrobia ulvae population

Coastal areas are typically subjected to a range of stressors, but they now face the additional stressor of climate change, manifested in part by an increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Thus, the Mondego estuary (Portugal) has experienced organic enrichment (eutrophication) issues and these are potentially exacerbated by extreme weather events (floods, droughts and heat waves). In this paper, we explore the impact of interactions of these different stressors on the ecology of the system, specifically on the two key components, the seagrass Zostera noltii and the mud snail Hydrobia ulvae. Extreme events affected different components of the estuarine ecosystem (primary producers and macrofauna) differently. Whilst the floods directly impacted on H. ulvae, by wiping out part of its population, they did not directly affect the biomass of Z. noltii. In contrast, drought events, through their effects on salinity, directly impacted the biomass of Zostera, which had knock-on effects on the dynamics of H. ulvae. We conclude that over the period when the estuary experienced eutrophication, extreme weather events contributed to the overall degradation of the estuary, while during the recovery phase following the introduction of a management programme, those extreme weather episodes delayed the recovery process significantly.     

Droughts in the desert: Medieval Warm Period associated with coarse sediment layers in the Gulf of Aqaba-Eilat,Red Sea

Prolonged droughts can cause environmental stress, even in ecosystems that are already adapted to dry conditions. In these areas life greatly depends on rare, sporadic rainfall events that can produce flash floods. Today, urban expansion, population growth and development are occurring worldwide, including along hyperarid coastlines, an ecological zone on the extreme of habitability. In such places, the absence of the already limited precipitation can lead to long-lasting damage, and recognizing drought conditions in the past is useful for planning. Recognizing droughts, however, is challenging because they are not known as depositional events, and therefore may be under-recognized in the sedimentological record. Floods in these hyperarid deserts carry eroded sediments and deposit them in either terrestrial or marine terminal basins. In the hyperarid (ca 30 mm rain per year) desert surrounding the northern Gulf of Aqaba-Eilat some flash floods reach the sea and deposit alluvial sediments (mostly silt and clay) on the shelf. Following a recent 17 year drought period (1995 to 2012) a coarser surface layer was recognized offshore the outlet of an ephemeral river, despite the lack of incoming flood material. This coarsened layer resulted from a prolonged period wherein mixing and winnowing of fine particles at the surface was not interrupted by recurrent flash floods. In the bottom of two sediment cores collected from the same shelf, a similarly coarsened layer was observed. The terminal level of this deep coarse layer was dated to ca 660 yr bp , corresponding with the end of the Medieval Warm Period (ca 1350 ad ). These findings suggest that the medieval anomaly resulted in a prolonged drought period in this already arid region. These results present a new interpretation of grain-size distribution records that provides a means to reconstruct drought histories in hyperarid regions globally.     

Effects of extreme climate events on the macrobenthic communities' structure and functioning of a temperate estuary

The Mondego estuary (Portugal) experienced profound structural and functional modifications due to eutrophication, which was exacerbated by consecutive weather extremes that compromised a previous restoration project. This work explores multiple climate impacts on macrobenthic communities’ structure and functioning and its implications on ecosystem’s recovery. Floods and heat waves had a stronger negative effect on macrobenthic assemblages than the droughts, imposing a total abundance decline. Contrarily, biomass was not so affected by climate events, being stable and even increased in a mudflat area, where seagrass is re-colonizing. Bivalves and oligochaetes decreased with the flooding episodes, likewise subsurface-deposit feeders and suspension feeders, while crustaceans were particularly sensitive to heat waves. Species richness declined with the floods and heat waves, whilst evenness increased in sandflat area, constituting a positive sign towards recovery. Succession of different climate extremes affected ecosystem structure and functioning, delaying its recovery with possible consequent effects at higher trophic levels.     

Livestock responses to droughts and severe winter weather in the Gobi Three Beauty National Park, Mongolia

We investigated how both droughts and dzuds (severe winter weather) control livestock mortality in a non-equilibrium steppe ecosystem of Mongolia, Gobi Three Beauty National Park. These steppe ecosystems have developed under high interannual variability of rainfall and nomadic grazing systems. Interannual precipitation variation was 39%, with 128 mm mean annual precipitation. The effect of climate variability and extreme events on livestock mortality is a critical aspect for the Mongolian economy. Analysis of drought and precipitation variability on livestock mortality rate was not significantly influenced by the index of mean annual precipitation and annual winter temperature. Overall, unlike hot dry regions, pastoral livestock mortality in the cold dry regions was affected more by dzuds and annual growing seasonal rain than by droughts. Dzuds can be frequent events, occurring as often as once every 2 and 3 years within a decade. The average annual livestock mortality for the combined drought and dzuds years (18%) was 4.8% greater than the years with dzuds alone, and 7% greater than in years with only drought. Thus livestock mortality appears to be more sensitive to dzuds than to droughts, and that dzuds contributes more to livestock mortality even years where combined drought and winter storms occur.     

应用沃尔什函数讨论我国旱涝时空变化

本文在文献基础上，应用沃尔什函数理论中的沃氏变化系数物理意义，讨论了我国东部（100°E以东）旱涝的时、空变化，得出了8种旱涝型和1470－1981年全国旱涝型年表。在这基础上，比较了沃氏功率谱与付氏功率谱的计算结果。研究表明：沃尔付函数在分析矩形数字波气象问题时，比傅氏函数有着更好的适用性和优越性。