地震活动性的细胞自动机模型

本文在二维平面设计了一个模拟地震活动性的细胞自动机模型，分析了模拟地震离列的活动性，并探讨了强震前场兆和源兆的物理机制，结果表明，模型的地震序列很好地反映了实际地震的丛集特性、幂律关系和空间转移概率的稳定性等特点。     

1901-1995年气候变化导致陆地生态系统净吸收碳

The spatial and temporal variability of land carbon flux over the past one hundred years was investigated based on an empirical model directly calculating soil respiration rate. Our model shows that during 1901-1995, about 44-89 PgC (equals to 0.5, 0.9 PgC/yr respectively) were absorbed by terrestrial biosphere. The simulated net ecosystem productivity (NEP) after the 1930s was close to the estimated value of" missing C sink” from deconvolution analysis. Most of the total carbon sink happened during 1951-1985 with the estimated value of 33-50 PgC. Three major sinks were located in the tropics (10°S-10°N), Northern mid-latitudes (30°-60°N) and Southern subtropics (10°-40°S). During 1940s-mid-1970s, carbon sinks by terrestrial ecosystem increased with time, and decreased after the mid-1970s. These may be due to the ch anging of climate condition, as during the 1940s-1970s, temperature decreased and precipitation increased, while after the mid-1970s, an opposite climate situation occurred with evident increasing in temperature and decreasing in precipitation. Usually, warmer and dryer climate condition is not favor for carbon absorption by biosphere and even induces net carbon release from soil, while cooler and wetter condition may induce more carbon sink. Our model results show that the net carbon flux is particularly dependent on moisture / precipitation effect despite of temperature effect. The changing of climate in the past century may be a possible factor inducing increases in carbon sink in addition to CO2 and N fertilizer.     

地球数字产品的空间数学基础

在分析当前地球数字产品空间数学基础局限性的基础上,将地图投影概念由传统的曲面到平面的变换扩展为曲面到曲面的变换,提出一套适合于大型GIS和地球数字产品的“地图投影”模型的实用模型,该模型的视图采用等距离切圆柱投影,度量空间是椭球面几何系统,符合计算机环境下GIS视图与度量空间分离的特性。鉴于全球多分辨率连续可视化,精密可视化量算,三维、多维地球数据统一,标准的空间定位框架和只有在统一的空间系统内全球资源、生态环境数据才能进行精确的地理分析等四个方面的需要,从地图投影进到本模型将是方向和技术趋势。     

建设数字地震 促进防震减灾

本文提出了“数字地震”的概念 ,讨论它的主要内容和问题 ,并对建设“数字地震”提出若干建设性意见。     

印尼8.7级地震前银川台形变数字化观测资料短临异常特征分析

采用形变观测资料分析方法中比较常用的形态法、差分法、消除潮汐改正和零漂法，处理了银川台形变数字化观测资料，发现在印尼8．7级地震前出现了一些短临异常情况，并对异常的变化特征做了相应的分析。     

Landslides in the Central Coalfield (Cantabrian Mountains, NW Spain): Geomorphological features, conditioning factors and methodological implications in susceptibility assessment

A geomorphological study focussing on slope instability and landslide susceptibility modelling was performed on a 278 km² area in the Nalón River Basin (Central Coalfield, NW Spain). The methodology of the study includes: 1) geomorphological mapping at both 1:5000 and 1:25,000 scales based on air-photo interpretation and field work; 2) Digital Terrain Model (DTM) creation and overlay of geomorphological and DTM layers in a Geographical Information System (GIS); and 3) statistical treatment of variables using SPSS and development of a logistic regression model. A total of 603 mass movements including earth flow and debris flow were inventoried and were classified into two groups according to their size. This study focuses on the first group with small mass movements (10⁰ to 10¹ m in size), which often cause damage to infrastructures and even victims. The detected conditioning factors of these landslides are lithology (soils and colluviums), vegetation (pasture) and topography. DTM analyses show that high instabilities are linked to slopes with NE and SW orientations, curvature values between − 6 and − 0.7, and slope values from 16° to 30°. Bedrock lithology (Carboniferous sandstone and siltstone), presence of Quaternary soils and sediments, vegetation, and the topographical factors were used to develop a landslide susceptibility model using the logistic regression method. Application of “zoom method” allows us to accurately detect small mass movements using a 5-m grid cell data even if geomorphological mapping is done at a 1:25,000 scale.     

Identifying linear and non-linear behaviour in reduced complexity modelling output using surrogate data methods

Validation of model output is an important issue in the environmental sciences. This is particularly the case for reduced complexity modelling approaches where verification of the underlying equations is often problematic. Hence, methods that go beyond validation based on average values or the histogram of model output, are clearly advantageous. In this paper we show that a validation method based on the serial properties of time–space data, and developed in geomorphology, is a useful alternative but is nevertheless still insensitive to certain asymmetric characteristics of the signal. Hence, use of this method for validation may be enhanced by the adoption of an accompanying test for asymmetry in the model output.     

Performance of surface footing on geocell-reinforced soft clay beds

This paper presents the results of laboratory model tests carried out to develop an understanding of the behaviour of geocell-reinforced soft clay foundations under circular loading. Natural silty clay was used in this study. The geocells were prepared using biaxial polymer grid. The performance of the reinforced bed is quantified using non-dimensional factors i.e., Bearing capacity improvement factor (I_f) and Percentage reduction in footing settlement (PRS). The test results demonstrate that the geocell mattress redistributes the footing load over a wider area thereby improving the performance of the footing. The load carrying capacity of the clay bed is increased by a factor of up to about 4.5 times that of unreinforced bed. From the pressure-settlement responses, it is observed that the geocell-reinforced foundation bed behaves as a much stiffer system compared to the unreinforced case indicating that a substantial reduction in footing settlement can be achieved by providing geocell reinforcement in the soft clay bed. The maximum reduction in footing settlement obtained with the provision of geocell mattress of optimum size placed close to the footing is around 90%. Further improvement in performance is obtained with provision of an additional planar geogrid layer at the base of the geocell mattress.     

Topographic monitoring of a middle estuary mudflat, Humber estuary, UK – Anthropogenic impacts and natural variation

Annual topographic surveys were carried out at the Saltend mudflat (Humber estuary, UK) between 1998 and 2006. These surveys formed part of an ongoing monitoring programme to examine the potential effects on the mudflat topography of the construction and operation of a waste water treatment works (WwTW) development by Yorkshire Water. Of particular concern was the potential disruption to the sedimentological regime within the special protection area (SPA) and candidate special area of conservation (cSAC) which could affect the invertebrate communities and ornithological functioning of the site. In addition to the development of the WwTW located to the extreme north-west of the site, a port extension removing 10 ha of the Saltend intertidal mudflat (outside the SPA but immediately south east of the WwTW) also occurred between 1999 and 2006. Minimal change was noted across the site following the construction and operation of the WwTW between 1998 and 2000. However, the construction of the bund in closer proximity to the SPA and cSAC masked any potential impact the WwTW could have had across the site after 2000. Profiles and contour mapping indicate that significant mudflat accretion occurred in the immediate area of the bund, with a general increase recorded across the western section of the site since 2000. In contrast the alternations to channel planform and subsequent rapid accretion of the mudflat to the east of the jetty, being a significant distance from the developments, are attributed to natural cyclical changes.     

Spheroidal oscillations of the Earth stimulated by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake with CDSN data

The 0S2~0S54 spheroidal modes of Earth’s free oscillations, triggered by the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 are retrieved from VHZ data recorded by seven upgraded stations of China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN). We compare these spheroidal modes with theoretical free oscillation spectra calculated from the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM) and find a coincidence between their periods. Spectral splitting phenomenon is observed obviously in 0S2, 0S3, 0S4, 2S1 and 1S2 free oscillation modes. What is most noticeable is that the oscillation mode 2S1 is reported for the second time (the first time by Rosat et al) without any data stacking. We simulated the split singlet of 0S2 mode on seven CDSN stations based on general focal mechanism and seismic moment of the earthquake. The result shows that seismic moment of the earthquake can reach 1023 N.m. We also find that the recording of Earth’s free oscillations carries abundant information of source mechanism and earthquake location, which is applicable to the detailed study of source rupture parameters.