基于区域航空运输可达性的机场空间布局

构建表现机场腹地与其航空运输网络间相互关系的结构方程模型,明确“二三产业总产值/总人口数/社会消费品零售总额”与“通航机场数/航班密度/通航里程”2个变量组之间的数量关系。基于腹地陆路交通网络和机场航空运输网络,列出机场陆域可达性和航线可达性的数学表达式,并基于乘客的主观感受组合2类可达性指标得到区域航空运输可达性指标,将该指标作为比选机场空间布局方案的标准。以烟台/威海地区为例对不同机场布局方案的场景进行分析,结果表明：在目前的需求形态下烟台/威海地区应设置1个机场,以使旅客享有较好的航空运输服务,使整个区域的航空运输可达性最优。     

Full-scale model testing on a ballastless high-speed railway under simulated train moving loads

Model testing in laboratory, as an effective alternative to field measurement, provides valuable data to understand railway׳s dynamic behaviors under train moving loads. This paper presents comprehensive experimental results on track vibration and soil response of a ballastless high-speed railway from a full-scale model testing with simulated train moving loads at various speeds. A portion of a realistic ballastless railway comprising slab track, roadbed, subgrade, and subsoil was constructed in a larger steel box. A computer-controlled sequential loading system was developed to generate equivalent vertical loadings at the track structure for simulating the dynamic excitations due to train׳s movements. Comparisons with the field measurements show that the proposed model testing can accurately reproduce dynamic behaviors of the track structure and underlying soils under train moving loads. The attenuation characteristics of dynamic soil stresses in a ballastless slab track is found to have distinct differences from that in a ballasted track. The model testing results provide better understanding of the influence of dynamic soil–structure interaction and train speed on the response of track structure and soils.     

Copula models for frequency analysis what can be learned from a Bayesian perspective?

Large spring floods in the Québec region exhibit correlated peakflow, duration and volume. Consequently, traditional univariate hydrological frequency analyses must be complemented by multivariate probabilistic assessment to provide a meaningful design flood level as requested in hydrological engineering (based on return period evaluation of a single quantity of interest). In this paper we study 47 years of a peak/volume dataset for the Romaine River with a parametric copula model. The margins are modeled with a normal or gamma distribution and the dependence is depicted through a parametric family of copulas (Arch 12 or Arch 14). Parameter joint inference and model selection are performed under the Bayesian paradigm. This approach enlightens specific features of interest for hydrological engineering: (i) cross correlation between margin parameters are stronger than expected , (ii) marginal distributions cannot be forgotten in the model selection process and (iii) special attention must be addressed to model validation as far as extreme values are of concern.     

First-principles derivation of reactive transport modeling parameters for particle tracking and PDE approaches

Both Eulerian and Lagrangian reactive transport simulations in natural media require selection of a parameter that controls the “promiscuity” of the reacting particles. In Eulerian models, measurement of this parameter may be difficult because its value will generally differ between natural (diffusion-limited) systems and batch experiments, even though both are modeled by reaction terms of the same form. And in Lagrangian models, there previously has been no a priori way to compute this parameter. In both cases, then, selection is typically done by calibration, or ad hoc. This paper addresses the parameter selection problem for Fickian transport by deriving, from first principles and D (the diffusion constant) the reaction-rate-controlling parameters for particle tracking (PT) codes and for the diffusion–reaction equation (DRE). Using continuous time random walk analysis, exact reaction probabilities are derived for pairs of potentially reactive particles based on D and their probability of reaction provided that they collocate. Simultaneously, a second PT scheme directly employing collocation probabilities is derived. One-to-one correspondence between each of D, the reaction radius specified for a PT scheme, and the DRE decay constant are then developed. These results serve to ground reactive transport simulations in their underlying thermodynamics, and are confirmed by simulations.     

未来50a中国地区冻土面积分布变化

在检验CMIP3模式比较计划中模式在中国地区的温度模拟效果的基础上,选取模拟效果相对较好的HadCM3、EACHE5模拟结果,采用Kudryavtsev方法,应用数字化土壤和植被资料,借助Arc-GIS,对未来50 a中国地区在A2情景下的冻土空间变化趋势进行了模拟计算. 结果表明,在A2情景下,未来50 a中国地区的冻土呈现出退缩趋势,在2050年,多年冻土在青藏高原地区的巴颜喀拉山-唐古拉山之间、冈底斯山地区出现退化,中国的冻土面积较2006年减少约10.7%.     

汾河上游土地利用变化及其水文响应研究

以河岔水文站以上的汾河流域为研究区,采用土地利用转移矩阵和SWAT模型模拟方法,就汾河上游土地利用变化对水文过程的影响进行研究. 流域从1995-2000年,以耕地向林地和草地转变为主;从2000-2010年,城市建设用地不断增加,主要是对耕地的占用. 结果显示,在相同气候背景、不同土地利用情景（1995、2000年2010年）下,流域1992-2000年多年平均产水量微弱增加（分别为85.69 mm、85.75 mm和85.82 mm）,主要因为耕地持续减少,草地和城市建设用地不断增加. 但是各年产水量的大小关系不完全一致,枯水年和平水年与丰水年存在差异,而土壤水分呈现一致的减少状况. 子流域水平上,降水条件同样影响水文过程对土地利用变化的响应程度. 以上结果表明,汾河流域在退耕还林还草政策等影响下,土地利用发生变化并且直接影响流域的水文过程,但是流域水文过程对土地利用变化的响应还受到降水的影响.     

Construction of ecological environment of oasis in Qingtongxia Irrigation District

Oasis is the core area of social and economic development in the arid western regions, and is also a territory with prominent ecological environmental problems. Because of the unreasonable development and utilization of soil and water resources, the ecological environment of oasis in Qingtongxia Irrigation District is threatened by soil salinization, shrinkage of lakes and wetlands, and deterioration of water environment. As for these environmental problems, the direct cause is the loss of regulation of groundwater depth or serious pollution of water caused by man-made irrational exploitation, and the root cause lies in shortage of water resources and unreasonable allocation of water resources. In this regard, it is believed that the primary task for the construction ecological environment of oasis in Qingtongxia Irrigation District is to adjust the allocation structure of water resources and to ease the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, for which the direct means is to carry out dynamic control of water and salt based on the ecological landscape structure and land type in the Irrigation District in accordance with local conditions.     

西北干旱区荒漠生态系统通量贡献区模型研究

涡度相关仪通量值所代表的通量贡献区范围,对于通量观测塔的选址、仪器安装高度的确定以及通量观测数据的质量控制等具有重要的指导意义。利用通量贡献区模型对位于古尔班通古特沙漠试验场通量观测资料的空间代表性进行初步分析。结果表明：该荒漠区在大气稳定条件下90%的通量贡献区最远可以达到686.40 m,通量贡献函数最大点的位置在162.50 m;大气稳定时各风向的通量贡献区范围在生长末期均达到最大,生长初期和中期的源区变化因受到各风向风速和植被下垫面的影响而有差异;大气不稳定时不同生长时期各风向通量贡献区没有固定变化规律;通量源区大约有58.71%的信息来自于荒漠区通量观测塔西南至西北方,整个生长季生长末期通量贡献最多,所占比例为40.16%。由FSAM模型测得的通量贡献区范围可以较准确地反映荒漠生态系统下垫面的通量信息。     

烃源岩排烃作用研究现状及展望

烃源岩排烃作用的研究在20世纪80年代以后取得了很大进展,主要体现在对烃源岩的排烃机理及控制因素的分析、煤成油排驱的理论研究及勘探突破、幕式排液的探讨及压实—压裂双端元排烃模型的建立等方面。在针对研究现状分析的基础上,提出了几点研究方向及展望：加强对烃源岩剖面排烃特征的高分辨率研究,建立压实—欠压实—压裂三端元排烃模型,对存在严重非均质性的烃源岩进行烃源岩排烃分级评价,深入探讨排烃与油气成藏的关系。     

加卸载响应比的新进展

本文对此作简要介绍。主要有下三方面：①预测效果好：2004年发生在中国大陆有资料地区的ML≥15级地震共17次,其中15次落入用加卸载响应比方法于2003年底预测的区域内。②通过大量基础研究(包括数值模拟,岩石力学实验及统计细观损伤力学研究),使加卸载响应比理论(LURR)建立在一个比较牢靠的科学基础上。③LURR有很大的潜力和发展空间。未来的发展空间,除预测天然地震外,还可能对矿震、水库地震、滑坡等自然灾害,甚至其它自然系统以致社会系统的灾变作出预测。