A new assessment model for evacuation vulnerability in urban areas

In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment.     

球面小波分析技术及在全球重力模型中的应用

在介绍球面小波理论的基础上,推导和比较了几种球面小波,分析了最新地球重力模型——EGM96,以此为依据,把球面小波多分辨分析用于计算全球自由空气异常及重力大地水准面,并对处理结果做出解释。     

基于定向片模型的SPOT-5遥感影像自检校光束法平差

本文通过建立内方位自检校模型,利用定向片模型对外方位元素进行内插建模,建立了基于定向片模型的自检校光束法平差,研究不同控制点数量和不同定向片间隔对定位精度的影响,并利用河南嵩山地区SPOT-5遥感影像数据对模型进行了实验验证和分析,结果表明,平面精度可以达到10.06m,高程精度可以达到8.84m.     

物理模型试验光纤传感测试方法应用进展

室内模拟试验是岩土力学与工程地质领域科学研究的重要手段之一。光纤传感测试是一种高精度、实时性、分布式和并行式的测试技术,构建物理模型试验光纤传感测试方法,推动了模拟试验技术的进步,为现场工程可以提供更可靠的指导。本文列举了常用模型试验光纤传感测试技术,综述了岩土力学与工程地质在5个方面应用模型试验光纤传感测试的进展,并对光纤传感器的结构形式、温度补偿、传感器标定、布设工艺等应用关键问题进行了总结,探讨了光纤与模型材料变形同步、协调和相容的关系。表明基于光纤传感技术的多尺度、多源信息模型试验研究将成为未来岩土力学与工程室内试验的热点。     

使用最简几何基元构建3维空间数据模型

在对现实世界进行高度抽象化的表达过程中,许多学者和机构提出了多种空间数据模型（或称之为空间数据结构）。文章首先总结了现有模型所使用的基本几何要素,并对其利弊进行了讨论：然后总结了使用这些几何要素进行组合、扩展以构建更为复杂的空间实体的理论即空间数据建模理论,同时也对不同理论的通用性和局限性进行了讨论。笔者随后以4维空间为基础．从空间内嵌的角度去思考不同维度下的空间构成．得出了3维空间的最简基本要索,并通过对比相关文献对geometricprimitives的中文翻译将其命名为“几何基元”。在此基础上笔者探讨了3维几何基元构成空间实体的数学表达本质．沦述了依此几何基元构成的空间实体之间基本拓扑关系的表达方法。最后笔者设计了一套数据结构以系统构建空间数据模型,该模型有利于实现3维空间数据库．可为形成3维数据资产提供蘑础。本文的结论认为,该3维空间数据模型可以有效地解决体3维和表面3维的模型一致性问题,提供了结合“地学3维”和“3维数字城市”等不同应刚系统的途径：同时可将当前的2维地理信息系统自然地扩展到3维：另外还可以为3维空间分析和专门的3维渲染引擎提供理论支持。     

气候系统模式FGOALS-s2对南半球气候的模拟和预估

针对参加“国际耦合模式比较计划”(CMIP5)的IAP/LASG气候系统模式FGOALS-s2,评估了其对南半球气候平均态的模拟能力,在此基础上,预估了未来不同“典型浓度路径”(RCPs)情景下南半球气候的变化特征.对20世纪历史气候模拟结果的分析表明,模式能够合理再现南半球大气环流气候态分布特征,包括6～8月平均(JJA)南半球双西风急流现象,只是模拟的北支急流偏弱、南支急流偏强.未来气候预估试验中,不同RCPs情景下南半球温度变化以增暖为主要特征,陆地增温大于海洋,只有南大西洋—印度洋海盆存在局部变冷.综合四种不同情景,未来随着温室气体浓度的增加,南半球中纬度高压带将显著加强,绕极低压带将加深.降水呈现出增多的特征,12月到来年2月平均(DJF)强于JJA,海洋强于陆地,只有南印度洋和南太平洋中部局部降水减少.未来不同RCPs情景下,马斯克林高压表现出先减弱后增强的特征,而澳大利亚高压则呈现出先增强后减弱的特征.南极涛动(AAO)的变化表现为:RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下AAO都表现为先增强后减弱,RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下都为一致的增强趋势,这主要与四种情景中模拟的未来温度变化结构不同有关.例如在RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下,南半球高纬高层温度增暖趋势小于中纬地区,使得经向温度梯度增大,中纬度西风加强,60°S以南位势高度减小,最终令AAO增强.     

自组织人工神经网络在滇东震旦系—寒武系分界线岩相古地理研究中的应用

运用T.Kohonen自组织人工神经网络,根据滇东24个剖面的渔户村组中谊村段的各种单元素(包括岩段厚度、组成岩段的岩石薄片单因素-白云质、硅质、泥质、磷质、陆屑及盆屑,和岩段的24种光谱元素)的统计资料,建立了该地区震旦系-寒武系分界线的岩相古地理相区识别的计算机智能专家系统,其识别成功率达100％。结果表明,该方法性能良好,可望成为岩相古地理定量研究的一种有效的辅助手段。     

冬季大风影响下的渤黄海水交换特征

利用ROMS海洋数值模式对2006年冬季渤黄海的海洋动力环境进行模拟,基于温度、盐度模拟结果,使用谱混合模型进行水团分析,定义了渤海海峡地区的水交换区。并进一步讨论了冬季大风事件对水交换区的影响,给出了冬季大风影响下的渤黄海水交换特征。研究得出,冬季的黄海水团以“舌”形分布于渤海海峡地区,水交换区则表现为沿“舌”形边缘呈带状分布,具有西北——东南的走向趋势,并且在“舌”尖处的水交换面积最大。通过缩小研究范围,发现位于黄海最北部的沿岸海域并不参与渤黄海之间的水体交换。最后研究发现,冬季大风事件对渤海水交换具有促进作用,具体表现为：大风过程使黄海暖流对渤海的入侵更加深入,水交换区向渤海方向伸展,南部的水交换带变宽,河流径流进入渤海后与渤海水的混合区加大,并发生北移。     

北京市房价与地价的动态关系——基于结构方程模型的实证分析

城市房价与地价之间的关系错综复杂,不仅受多种因素的交织影响,相互之间也存在动态关系。研究房价与地价关系的传统方法,如Granger因果检验和回归分析等,无法刻画房价与地价之间多维的网络状关系,相比之下,结构方程模型能同时处理多个内生潜变量,且不受观测指标共线性的影响,为刻画地价与房价的交互作用提供了新的工具。从住房与土地市场的供需传导机制出发,推导出房价与地价的结构模型,以北京市为例,运用2003-2013年居住用地价格和2014年在售楼盘价格,与北京市GIS电子地图相匹配,提取商服中心可达性、公共交通可达性、道路可达性、商服繁华度、设施便利性等解释变量,构建地价与房价结构方程模型,分析二者之间的结构关系。     

A Simulation Study on the Extreme Temperature Events of the 20th Century by Using the BCC_AGCM

Extreme temperature events are simulated by using the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC AGCM) in this paper. The model has been run for 136 yr with the observed external forcing data including solar insolation, greenhouse gases, and monthly sea surface temperature (SST). The daily maximum and minimum temperatures are simulated by the model, and 16 indices representing various extreme temperature events are calculated based on these two variables. The results show that the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXX), maximum of daily minimum (TNX), minimum of daily maximum (TXN), minimum of daily minimum (TNN), warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p), summer days (SU25), tropical nights (TR20), and warm spell duration index (WSDI) have increasing trends during the 20th century in most regions of the world, while the cold days (TX10p), cold nights (TN10p), and cold spell duration index (CSDI) have decreasing trends. The probability density function (PDF) of warm/cold days/nights for three periods of 1881-1950, 1951- 1978, and 1979-2003 is examined. It is found that before 1950, the cold day/night has the largest probability, while for the period of 1979-2003, it has the smallest probability. In contrast to the decreasing trend of cold days/nights, the PDF of warm days/nights exhibits an opposite trend. In addition, the frost days (FD) and ice days (ID) have decreasing trends, the growing season has lengthened, and the diurnal temperature range is getting smaller during the 20th century. A comparison of the above extreme temperature indices between the model output and NCEP data (taken as observation) for 1948-2000 indicates that the mean values and the trends of the simulated indices are close to the observations, and overall there is a high correlation between the simulated indices and the observations. But the simulated trends of FD, ID, growing season length, and diurnal temperature range are not consistent with the observations and their correlations are low or even negative. This indicates that the model is incapable to simulate these four indices although it has captured most indices of the extreme temperature events.