转移概率预报方法在霜冻预报中的应用

本文在简介转移概率预报方法及最大概率预报原理的基础上,分析了吕梁市1957年～2000年霜冻初、终日期各随机时间序列状态之间的转换规律,结合各序列的初始分布,建立预报模型,并对1995年～2004年的初、终霜日期进行了预报效果检验。结果表明,该方法预报效果好,使用性强,具有良好的应用前景。     

A six-step practical approach to semivariogram modeling

Geostatistical prediction and simulation are being increasingly used in the earth sciences and engineering to address the imperfect knowledge of attributes that fluctuate over large areas or volumes—pollutant concentration, electromagnetic fields, porosity, thickness of a geological formation. Central to the application of such techniques is the need to know the spatial continuity, knowledge that is commonly condensed in the form of covariance or semivariogram models. Their preparation is subdivided here into the following steps: (1) Data editing, (2) Exploratory data analysis, (3) Semivariogram estimation, (4) Directional investigation, (5) Simple modeling, (6) Nested modeling. I illustrate these stages practically with a real data set from a geophysical survey from Elk County, Kansas, USA. The applicability of the approach is not limited by the physical nature of the attribute of interest.     

Towards medium-term (order of months) morphodynamic modelling of the Teign estuary, UK

The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.     

Role of land-surface temperature feedback on model performance for the stable boundary layer

At present a variety of boundary-layer schemes is in use in numerical models and often a large variation of model results is found. This is clear from model intercomparisons, such as organized within the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS). In this paper we analyze how the specification of the land-surface temperature affects the results of a boundary-layer scheme, in particular for stable conditions. As such we use a well established column model of the boundary layer and we vary relevant parameters in the turbulence scheme for stable conditions. By doing so, we can reproduce the outcome for a variety of boundary-layer models. This is illustrated with the original set-up of the second GABLS intercomparison study using prescribed geostrophic winds and land-surface temperatures as inspired by (but not identical to) observations of CASES-99 for a period of more than two diurnal cycles. The model runs are repeated using a surface temperature that is calculated with a simple land-surface scheme. In the latter case, it is found that the range of model results in stable conditions is reduced for the sensible heat fluxes, and the profiles of potential temperature and wind speed. However, in the latter case the modelled surface temperatures are rather different than with the original set-up, which also impacts on near-surface air temperature and wind speed. As such it appears that the model results in stable conditions are strongly influenced by non-linear feedbacks in which the magnitude of the geostrophic wind speed and the related land-surface temperature play an important role.     

大厂铜坑银锌矿体三维数学模型的建立和应用

运用国际矿业软件Surpac建立矿体原始资料数据库、三维实体模型以及品位块体模型。采用距离幂次反比法进行金属元素品位估值,用其结果分别按高程对各金属元素进行储量计算,完成品位块体模型的建模过程,从而实现矿床三维立体可视化以及原始数据资料的动态查询,对矿山生产管理具有较大现实意义。     

A microscale three-dimensional urban energy balance model for studying surface temperatures

A microscale three-dimensional (3-D) urban energy balance model, Temperatures of Urban Facets in 3-D (TUF-3D), is developed to predict urban surface temperatures for a variety of surface geometries and properties, weather conditions, and solar angles. The surface is composed of plane-parallel facets: roofs, walls, and streets, which are further sub-divided into identical square patches, resulting in a 3-D raster-type model geometry. The model code is structured into radiation, conduction and convection sub-models. The radiation sub-model uses the radiosity approach and accounts for multiple reflections and shading of direct solar radiation. Conduction is solved by finite differencing of the heat conduction equation, and convection is modelled by empirically relating patch heat transfer coefficients to the momentum forcing and the building morphology. The radiation and conduction sub-models are tested individually against measurements, and the complete model is tested against full-scale urban surface temperature and energy balance observations. Modelled surface temperatures perform well at both the facet-average and the sub-facet scales given the precision of the observations and the uncertainties in the model inputs. The model has several potential applications, such as the calculation of radiative loads, and the investigation of effective thermal anisotropy (when combined with a sensor-view model).     

参数调整对气象预测的B-P网络模型性能的影响

为了探索ＢＰ网络的参数调整特性,进行了参数α、β的选取对ＢＰ算法的收敛速度和模型的稳定性的影响研究。通过ＢＰ网络用于气象预测建模的参数调整个例分析表明：参数α、β的取值对ＢＰ模型的稳定性无显著影响,但参数值的调整尤其是β值的调整对建模的收敛速度有明显的影响。     

GIS面向用户的模型库及其管理系统的设计与实现——以GIS中地形分析为例

主要阐述了 GIS中模型库及其管理系统的基本概况 ,介绍了在 Windows 95环境下 ,用动态连接库 (DLL)实现模型的存储 ,用面向用户的方式实现模型维护的一种方法 ,并以此为基础建立了军事地形分析模型库。     

作用于南海北部地壳岩体的外场力

用光弹等色线与地震震中密集程度对照法,得到本研究区等效外场力的主要特点为:(1)非匀布荷载;(2)方向大致为:东—中部在N13～79°之间;西北部为SN向;西部在N51～78°之间;西南部在N25～69°E之间。     

A land surface model (IAP94) for climate studies Part II: Implementation and preliminary results of coupled model with IAP GCM

The Institute of Atmospheric Physics Land Surface Model (IAP94) has been incorporated into the IAP two-level atmospheric general circulation model (IAP GCM). Global and regional climatology averaged over the last 25 years of 100 year integrations from the IAP GCM with and without IAP94 (“bucket” scheme) is compared. The simulated results are also compared with the reanalysis data. Major findings are:(1) The IAP GCM simulation without IAP94 has extensive regions of warmer than observed surface air tempera?tures, while the simulation with IAP94 very much improves the surface air temperature.(2) The IAP GCM simulation with IAP94 gives improvement of the simulated precipitation pattern and intensity, especially the precipitation of East Asian summer monsoon and its intraseasonal migration of the rainbelts.(3) In five selected typical regions, for most of the surface variables such as surface air temperature, precipitation, precipitation minus evaporation, net radiation, latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, the IAP GCM with IAP94 pro?vides better simulations.