基于支持向量机的元胞自动机及土地利用变化模拟

提出了利用遥感数据，并采用支持向量机来确定元胞自动机非线性转换规则的新方法。元胞自动机在模拟复杂地理现象时，需要采用非线性转换规则。目前元胞自动机主要采用线性方法来获取转换规则，在反映复杂的非线性地理现象时有一定的局限性。以城市扩张的模拟为例，将模拟城市系统的主要特征变量映射到Hilbert空间后，通过SVM建立最优分割超平面，分割超平面的分类决策函数由径向基核（Radial Basis Kernel）构造。利用历史遥感数据校正超平面的决策函数，确定城市元胞自动机的非线性转换规则，计算出城市发展概率。利用所提出的方法，对深圳市1988-2010年的城市发展进行了模拟，取得了较理想的模拟效果。研究结果表明，基于SVM-CA模型的模拟精度比传统MCE方法模拟精度高，MoranⅠ指数与实际更为接近。     

Effect of climatic change on snowmelt runoffs in mountainous regions of inland rivers in Northwestern China

Snow is one of the most active natural elements of snow cover through its high albedo, variation of the the cryosphere on the earth surface. Its unique proper- snow cover distribution and frozen soils in regional ties, such as areal extent, surface albedo, and snow scales not only affect local climate and environments, depth are important parameters in global energy bal- but also feedback to large-scale, or even global cli- ance models. On global and terrestrial scales, a large matic change th…     

2003年淮河汛期一次中尺度强暴雨过程的诊断分析和数值模拟研究

2003年7月4—5日淮河流域发生了一次中尺度强暴雨过程,致使淮河洪水泛滥。这次暴雨过程由中尺度对流系统(MCS)以及因其发展而产生的低涡造成。通过对此次过程的诊断分析和新一代细网格WRF中尺度预报模式的数值模拟,研究了这次过程发生发展的机制。模拟结果较好地描述了本次暴雨及中尺度系统发生、发展的时空演变过程。分析结果表明:此次移动性暴雨过程的前期由不断向东移动发展的MCS造成,后期降水则由低涡切变线产生的中尺度低涡引起。同时,副热带高压明显偏西偏北,并维持较长时间,造成雨带一直维持在淮河流域。高层辐合中心的加强使低空急流不断增强,低空急流的增强进而引起低层辐合的加强,而低层辐合的加强以及上升运动的潜热释放导致低涡的发生,低涡形成及形成后移动缓慢,造成了淮河流域的大暴雨。高层中尺度辐散区的抽吸对低层中尺度涡旋的发生发展起到了促进和加强的作用。低层的中尺度辐合场和高层的中尺度辐散场的发展与耦合对中尺度系统的发展有很好的预示作用。低层中尺度辐合区的减弱预示着系统的衰减,西南偏西的中层相对干冷空气侵入并在梅雨锋前缘下沉促进了系统的衰减。     

Short-term vertical velocity field in the Apennines (Italy) revealed by geodetic levelling data

We estimate current vertical movements along the Apennines (Italy) through repeatedly measured high precision levelling routes. In order to highlight regional crustal deformation the analysis of a geodetic database, with a minimum benchmark density of 0.7 bm/km (1943–2003 time period), is carried out. We evaluate systematic and random error and their propagation along the levelling routes. Tests on original raw height data have been carried out to define error propagation. The computed relative vertical rates stand significantly above error propagation. A series of traverses along and across the Apennines and a map of relative vertical velocities reveal a geodetic signal characterised by values up to 2.5–3.0 mm/a and by wavelengths up to 100 km.     

采用热像仪测量玉米冠层半球方向亮温的四种方法比较

为了提高玉米冠层半球方向亮温（DBT）测量的准确性，对一套由工业用起重机平台和热红外成像仪组成的地面观测系统的四种测量方法进行了对比和评价。这些方法基于不同的测量原理：（1）通过移动起重机和平台，从不同的角度去测量一个样区的DBT；（2）固定起重机和平台的位置，通过旋转热像仪，从不同的区域收集不同角度的DBT；（3）对方法2的改进，转动热像仪朝向的同时，吊车沿作物垄行方向运动，得到大区域内平均的DBT；（4）当热像仪沿着垂直于垄行方向的起重机臂运动时，用高成像频率对目标热辐射进行采样。在对这些方法进行比较时，着重考虑了玉米冠层亮温分布的时间和空间变化所产生的影响，对本观测系统的优点和局限性进行了初步探讨。最后，本文从实际应用的角度，提出了一个基于这个系统且优化了的DBT测量方法。     

海底浅地层声纳探测在断层精确定位中的应用

根据沉积条件和覆盖层厚度,选用声纳探测方法对山东威海湾神道口断裂在海域内的走向及位置进行了海域探测,取得了较好的剖面资料。利用海域地形资料对结果进行了检验,证明了结果的有效性,从而实现了断裂在海域的精确定位。     

光化学臭氧日变化特征与其前体物关系的探讨

应用大气光化学模式研究了日最大臭氧体积分数及其出现时刻与其前体物NMHC、NOx体积分数及NMHC／NOx比值的关系。结果表明，影响日最大臭氧体积分数（ψ03max）脊线位置（EKMA图，Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach）的关键因子是NMHC成份组成比例；日臭氧体积分数达到最大值需要的时间（τ03max）与NMHC／NOx比值及NMHC成份组成比例有关，与NMHC、NOx体积分数关系不大。此外，利用该结果解释了近20a北京日最大臭氧体积分数出现时刻具有不断提前的变化趋势的原因。     

地图的按需印刷和复制

文中论述了按需印刷和复制的概念、应用特点及与传统印刷方式相比的优点。数字印刷是地图按需印刷和复制的技术基础，文中分析了其成像方法和设备情况。指出了地图按需印刷和复制的技术途径及技术难点。     

A NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE OF WIND FIELDS AT UPPER LEVELS IN THE MEIYU PERIOD ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET AND MESOSCALE SYSTEMS*

Using a mesoscale model,a numerical study on a heavy rainfall case occurring in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin is made in this paper.The influence of the intensity of northeasterly wind in front of the Qinghai-Xizang high at upper level on the low level wind field and development of mesoscale systems as well as heavy rainfall is investigated.The model well reproduced the heavy rainfall process and the weather systems associated.And it indicates that the strong northeasterly flow around the high at upper troposphere will bring about not only the strengthening of low level southeasterly wind,but also the appearance of shear-line and mesoscale vortex at low level.The coupling of northerly wind at upper level and southerly wind at lower level constructs a vertical indirect circulation which is most favourable for the development of convective motions.Its ascending branch in the shear-line area is very strong and shows a pronounced mesoscale characteristic.     

Timing and duration of the Last Interglacial: evidence for a restricted interval of widespread coral reef growth

We report new mass spectrometric U-series ages for eight Last Interglacial fossil reefs along the continental margin of Western Australia. Corals were selected in growth position from localities that are characterized by apparently low levels of diagenesis and relative tectonic stability so that the fossil reefs provide critical information on Last Interglacial sea-levels without requiring corrections for tectonic movements. In addition, we have improved the constraint on the timing of onset of reef growth by recovering drill core coral from the base of the reefs. Uranium and thorium isotopes were measured with high levels of precision, leading to improvements in age resolution and allowing samples which have undergone diagenetic exchange of uranium and thorium to be more easily identified and discarded. These data supplement our previous results for Rottnest Island and Leander Point, leading to more than seventy mass spectrometric U-series ages from which constraints can be placed on the timing, duration and character of the Last Interglacial sea-level highstand. Reliable ages show that reef growth started contemporaneously at 128 ± 1 ka along the entire Western Australian coastline, while relative sea-levels were at least 3 m above the present level. Because Western Australia is located far from the former Penultimate Glacial Maximum ice sheets and are not significantly effected by glacial unloading, these data constrain the timing of onset of the Last Interglacial period to 128 ± 1 ka, assuming reef growth started soon after sea-level approached interglacial levels. A unique regressive reef sequence at Mangrove Bay constrains the timing of termination of the Last Interglacial period to 116 ± 1 ka. The major episode of reef building, however, both globally and locally along the Western Australian coast, is restricted to a very narrow interval occurring from 128 ka and 121 ka, suggesting that global ocean surface temperatures were warm and/or sea-levels were stable enough to allow prolific reef growth only during the earlier part of the Last Interglacial.