A statistical approach to landslide risk modelling at basin scale: from landslide susceptibility to quantitative risk assessment

A procedure for landslide risk assessment is presented. The underlying hypothesis is that statistical relationships between past landslide occurrences and conditioning variables can be used to develop landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk models. The latter require also data on past damages. Landslides occurred during the last 50 years and subsequent damages were analysed. Landslide susceptibility models were obtained by means of Spatial Data Analysis techniques and independently validated. Scenarios defined on the basis of past landslide frequency and magnitude were used to transform susceptibility into quantitative hazard models. To assess vulnerability, a detailed inventory of exposed elements (infrastructures, buildings, land resources) was carried out. Vulnerability values (0–1) were obtained by comparing damages experienced in the past by each type of element with its actual value. Quantitative risk models, with a monetary meaning, were obtained for each element by integrating landslide hazard and vulnerability models. Landslide risk models showing the expected losses for the next 50 years were thus obtained for the different scenarios. Risk values obtained are not precise predictions of future losses but rather a means to identify areas where damages are likely to be greater and require priority for mitigation actions.     

兰州市南北两山水热条件对侧柏根系分布的影响

根系是植物与外界环境进行物质和能量交换的主要场所之一,其分布特征反映了植物对环境的利用程度和适应性。试验采用土钻法研究了兰州地区的主要造林树种——侧柏的根系分布特性。结果表明：不同立地条件对侧柏根系分布特征有显著影响。阴坡根系分布比阳坡深,根系生长量比阳坡大,灌溉区根系分布比无灌溉区深;在无灌溉条件下向阳立地的根系集中分布在20～30 cm土层,向阴立地的根系集中分布在10～30 cm土层;在灌溉条件下向阳立地的根系集中分布在10～40 cm土层,向阴立地的根系集中分布在20～50 cm土层;向阳立地根系生长以Φ<1 mm为主,占所有根量的61.5％。向阴立地根系生长主要以Φ≥3 mm为主,占所有根量的68.5％。     

柴北缘鱼卡河超高压变质金红石中Si含量及其地质意义

利用LA-ICP-MS方法对柴达木盆地北缘鱼卡河超高压变质的多硅白云母榴辉岩及共生的石榴角闪钠长岩中的金红石进行了详细的矿物学和LA-ICP-MS原位微量元素研究。结果表明:多硅白云母榴辉岩中金红石显示Si成分环带,且Si含量(质量分数,下同)随变质压力而发生规律性的变化;从进变质到峰期变质阶段,金红石中Si含量从核部向边部呈升高趋势,峰期金红石的边部Si含量达到最高,退变质阶段金红石中Si含量从核部向边部呈降低趋势;石榴角闪钠长岩中的金红石主要呈包体产于多硅白云母、石榴子石、角闪石和钠长石中;在相同的超高压变质条件下,石榴角闪钠长岩中多硅白云母包体金红石的Si含量((1018~2741)×10^-6,平均为1924×10^-6)明显高于多硅白云母榴辉岩中的峰期金红石((450~2397)×10^-6,平均为952×10^-6)。综合多硅白云母榴辉岩和石榴角闪钠长岩的产状、变质演化和全岩成分以及前人对大别—苏鲁超高压榴辉岩中富硅金红石的研究结果提出,超高压变质岩石中金红石的Si含量与变质压力成正相关关系,金红石中Si含量大于500×10^-6可以作为榴辉岩经历超高压变质作用的指示标志。超高压金红石中Si含量与全岩成分中SiO2和TiO2含量有关,随SiO2含量的升高和TiO2含量的降低而升高。     

2000–2012年中国北方海岸线时空变化（英文）

This study examined the spatial distribution of the continent coastline in northern China using remote sensing and GIS techniques,and calculated the fractal dimension of the coastline by box-counting method,with a time span from 2000 to 2012.Moreover,we analyzed the characteristics of spatial-temporal changes in the coastline's length and fractal dimension,the relationship between the length change and fractal dimension change,and the driving forces of coastline changes in northern China.During the research period,the coastline of the study area increased by 637.95 km,at a rate of 53.16 km per year.On the regional level,the most significant change in coastline length was observed in Tianjin and Hebei.Temporally,the northern China coastline grew faster after 2008.The most dramatic growth was found between 2010 and 2011,with an increasing rate of 2.49% per year.The fractal dimension of the coastline in northern China was increasing during the research period,and the most dramatic increase occurred in Bohai Rim.There is a strong-positive linear relationship between the historical coastline length and fractal dimension(the correlation coefficient was 0.9962).Through statistical analysis of a large number of local coastline changes,it can be found that the increase(or decrease) of local coastline length will,in most cases,lead to the increase(or decrease) of the whole coastline fractal dimension.Civil-coastal engineering construction was the most important factor driving the coastline change in northern China.Port construction,fisheries facilities and salt factories were the top three construction activities.Compared to human activities,the influence of natural processes such as estuarine deposit and erosion were relatively small.     

夏季南海北部水体中颗粒有机碳的分布特征

通过干式燃烧法对2008年8―9月南海北部的颗粒有机碳(POC)进行了分析,得出南海北部表层海水POC的含量范围为37～330μg/l。分析显示:受珠江口陆源输入颗粒物的影响,华南沿岸海域POC含量最高;浮游植物碳是中央海盆北部POC的重要组成;琼东上升流区和吕宋海峡则在一定程度上受陆源物质的影响。华南近岸浅海水域由于垂直混合,水体10 m以下水层POC分布比较一致。琼东上升流区、中央海盆北部及吕宋海峡100 m以浅水层POC总体表现为随深度增加而下降,琼东上升流区和吕宋海峡100～200 m水层POC含量出现波动,可能分别受到沉积物再悬浮和不同水团混合的影响。     

E24 profile slope stability analysis in Haizhou Opencast Coal Mine of Fuxin

The E24 profile slope analyzed belongs to a series of excavated slopes of the Haizhou Opencast Coal Mine. It seems to be divided into Downslope Part and Upslope Part. Its profile comprises two noticeable coal seams, called the 8# and 9# weak layers, considered as the potential failure surfaces. In consideration of the actual configuration as in the perspective of any modification, assessing the stability of this slope with various profile forms under given conditions, and assessing the risk of instability and quantifying the influence of earthworks or other modifications to the stability of this slope, have constituted the primordial objectives carried out. From assumed potential failure surfaces, any specific profiles and specified slip surfaces are defined. A factor of safety (FoS) is computed for each specified slip surface; the smallest FoS found corresponds to the least favorable slip surface. The safety factor values obtained are compared to the suggested safety factor. Limit equilibrium methods of vertical slices implemented in Slope/W, computer program for slope stability analyses, have been adopted to perform the E24 slope stability analysis. The safety factor values computed with 9# weak layer are lower than for 8#; the factors of safety obtained with Sarma's method are the smallest; more, without groundwater (long term) overall values are greater than those determined under groundwater condition (short term). The lowest safety factor value is found for a profile depending on an adopted earthwork sequence. The E24 profile slope stability analysis shows the instability risk for the deepest weak layer, and also shows the short and long term stability of this slope for the envisaged earth movements. However it demonstrates the existence of instability risk for any earthwork firstly affecting the downslope part.     

退耕还林(草)背景下中国北方农牧交错带土地利用及碳储量变化

为明析退耕还林(草)背景下生态环境较为脆弱的北方农牧交错带土地利用及碳储量变化,基于该区2000、2010、2018年土地利用数据,通过动态度、土地转移矩阵,景观指数等指标从土地利用变化的数量、速率以及空间格局特征加以分析,同时基于In VEST模型定量估算了该区近20年来的碳储量变化.结果表明:(1)北方农牧交错带土...     

华北主要城市夏季高温气候特征及评估方法

利用我国华北地区1961~2000年夏季6~8月高温资料,探讨了华北地区主要城市高温过程,建立该地区强高温过程较完整的序列。分析华北主要城市北京、天津、石家庄、济南、太原市等夏季危害性高温气候特征。给出了东亚副热带高压和大陆变性高压的活动特点。观测结果表明,东亚副热带高压和大陆变性高压对华北地区主要城市夏季危害性高温在各地有很大差异,与相对湿度大小有密切关系。东亚副热带高压和大陆变性高压的活动是造成华北地区城市夏季危害性高温的主要影响系统。在此基础上建立了华北主要城市夏季危害性高温候、旬、月评估方法。其结果表明该方法对华北地区主要城市夏季危害性高温影响评估有应用价值。     

登封箕山北麓硅化破碎带含矿地质特征

登封箕山北麓硅化破碎带主要产于上寒武统白云岩中，成群成带分布。矿化严格受地层、岩性、构造条件控制。本文着重硅化破碎带的含矿地质特征、矿化类型、元素组合、异常分布和围岩蚀变等成矿地质条件分析研究，认为太古代变质绿岩和富钾花岗岩类是“矿源层”，其成因应属低温热液充填型。     

Analytical and numerical analyses of the load‐bearing capacity of retaining walls laterally supported at both ends

This paper investigates the load‐bearing capacity of a perfectly smooth retaining wall laterally supported at both ends assuming that the wall fails by the development of three plastic hinges. The study considers the case of a cohesionless elastic–perfectly plastic backfill with a Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion and an associative flow rule in drained conditions. A kinematically admissible soil–structure failure mechanism is proposed and compared with the conventional solutions and with results from a numerical finite element modelling. The study shows that the proposed solution and the numerical solution are in good agreement. These solutions are found to be much more favourable for the wall than the conventional solutions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.