离心场中风力电机桩基复杂加载测试设备的研制

桩基础是近海风力发电中经常采用的基础形式,承受着包括低频风循环荷载在内的复杂荷载组合。为了采用离心模型试验来研究风机桩基础特性,研制了离心场中风机桩基础复杂加载测试设备。该套设备除了可以施加水平向和竖向静力荷载外,还实现了离心场中长时间低频率的水平循环加载,并能够实现多种荷载同时或者先后施加。通过一系列测试试验,验证了该套设备的有效性,满足离心模型试验中对模拟风机桩基础的复杂荷载要求。初步试验结果表明,桩顶水平位移随着水平荷载循环周数的增加而增大,但增长速率逐渐减小,至一定周数后,桩顶位移趋于稳定,土体变形主要集中在桩周一定区域内     

An inverse-modelling approach to assess the impacts of climate change in the Seyhan River basin,Turkey / Une approche de modélisation inverse pour évaluer les impacts du changement climatique dans le bassin versant de la Rivière Seyhan,Turquie

Abstract

One of the most significant anticipated consequences of global climate change is the change in frequency of hydrological extremes. Predictions of climate change impacts on the regime of hydrological extremes have traditionally been conducted by a top-down approach that involves a high degree of uncertainty associated with the temporal and spatial characteristics of general circulation model (GCM) outputs and the choice of downscaling technique. This study uses the inverse approach to model hydrological risk and vulnerability to changing climate conditions in the Seyhan River basin, Turkey. With close collaboration with the end users, the approach first identifies critical hydrological exposures that may lead to local failures in the Seyhan River basin. The Hydro-BEAM hydrological model is used to inversely transform the main hydrological exposures, such as floods and droughts, into corresponding meteorological conditions. The frequency of critical meteorological conditions is investigated under present and future climate scenarios by means of a weather generator based on the improved K-nearest neighbour algorithm. The weather generator, linked with the output of GCMs in the last step of the proposed methodology, allows for the creation of an ensemble of scenarios and easy updating when improved GCM outputs become available. Two main conclusions were drawn from the application of the inverse approach to the Seyhan River basin. First, floods of 100-, 200- and 300-year return periods under present conditions will have 102-, 293- and 1370-year return periods under the future conditions; that is, critical flood events will occur much less frequently under the changing climate conditions. Second, the drought return period will change from 5.3 years under present conditions to 2.0 years under the future conditions; that is, critical drought events will occur much more frequently under the changing climate conditions.     

Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest,Borneo Island / Simulation de l'occurrence de pluie horaire au sein de la forêt équatoriale,Ile de Bornéo

Abstract

The ability to simulate characteristics of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence, and its evolution over the seasons is important to the forecasting of hydrological impacts resulting from land-use and climate changes within the humid tropics. This stochastic modelling study uses a generalized linear model (GLM) solution to second-order Markov chain models, as these discrete models are better at describing binary occurrence processes on an hourly time-scale than continuous-time approaches such as stochastic state-space models. We show that transition probabilities derived by the Markov chain method need to be time-varying rather than stationary to simulate the evolution of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence over a Southeast Asian monsoon sequence. The conceptual and pragmatic links between discrete diurnal processes and continuous processes occurring over seasonal periods are thereby simulated within the same model.     

基于智能反分析的水布垭电站地下厂房机窝施工方案优化

采用正交设计、三维数值模拟、遗传算法与支持向量机,建立了清江水布垭电站地下厂房的智能反分析流程。按照上述流程,利用前6层开挖的现场监测信息对有关岩层的力学参数进行反分析,根据反分析的参数对后续的机窝施工进行数值模拟计算和方案优化。推荐的机窝施工方案采用槽挖方式,同时应用锚桩、软岩置换、锚喷支护等措施,兼顾了高边墙和机窝岩台的稳定性。优化结果对厂房施工具有重要的指导作用。     

大型直流电压发生器塔架结构地震响应分析

本文以某一大型直流电压发生器塔架结构为例,建立有限元计算模型,采用调幅正弦五波、Taft地震波、El-Centro地震波、云南澜沧地震波和正弦三波5种地震动输入,通过数值计算,讨论了不同输入地震波对于结构抗震设计的影响。结果表明,地震作用效应在这类特种结构的组合响应中起重要影响,采用调幅正弦五波、正弦三波作为地震输入,过分夸大了实际的地震作用效应。最后,对这类特种结构的输入地震动提出了相应建议。     

J—A2500射频发生器及其维修

本文介绍J-A2500射频发生器的简单工作原理、调试方法和典型故障排除以及使用维修注意事项。     

河北大茂山碘化银地面发生器增雪作业影响分析

利用常规气象资料、MICAPS资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,结合高斯模拟,分析了2012年11月10日唐县大茂山地基碘化银发生器增雪作业的作业条件。结果发现,此次天气背景为自西南向东北移动的冷涡云系,根据帕斯奎尔(Pasquill)稳定度分类法得出作业时间段大气处于中性层结状态;高斯模式模拟得出,有效的AgI浓度向上扩散范围高达3.0 km;作业点作业时段上空至3.2 km均处于上升气流区,计算出作业点发生器出口温度1.0℃。因冬季人工观测云底高度多为2.5~3.0 km,综合分析认为,该作业点的选址是合适的,此次作业条件较好,可以将催化剂输送到云中,起到催化作用。     

Spatial crime distribution and prediction for sporting events using social media

ABSTRACT

Sporting events attract high volumes of people, which in turn leads to increased use of social media. In addition, research shows that sporting events may trigger violent behavior that can lead to crime. This study analyses the spatial relationships between crime occurrences, demographic, socio-economic and environmental variables, together with geo-located Twitter messages and their ‘violent’ subsets. The analysis compares basketball and hockey game days and non-game days. Moreover, this research aims to analyze crime prediction models using historical crime data as a basis and then introducing tweets and additional variables in their role as covariates of crime. First, this study investigates the spatial distribution of and correlation between crime and tweets during the same temporal periods. Feature selection models are applied in order to identify the best explanatory variables. Then, we apply localized kernel density estimation model for crime prediction during basketball and hockey games, and on non-game days. Findings from this study show that Twitter data, and a subset of violent tweets, are useful in building prediction models for the seven investigated crime types for home and away sporting events, and non-game days, with different levels of improvement.     

The use of predictive analysis in spatiotemporal crime forecasting: Building and testing a model in an urban context

Police databases hold a large amount of crime data that could be used to inform us about current and future crime trends and patterns. Predictive analysis aims to optimize the use of these data to anticipate criminal events. It utilizes specific statistical methods to predict the likelihood of new crime events at small spatiotemporal units of analysis. The aim of this study is to investigate the potential of applying predictive analysis in an urban context. To this end, the available crime data for three types of crime (home burglary, street robbery, and battery) are spatially aggregated to grids of 200 by 200 m and retrospectively analyzed. An ensemble model is applied, synthesizing the results of a logistic regression and neural network model, resulting in bi-weekly predictions for 2014, based on crime data from the previous three years. Temporally disaggregated (day versus night predictions) monthly predictions are also made. The quality of the predictions is evaluated based on the following criteria: direct hit rate (proportion of incidents correctly predicted), precision (proportion of correct predictions versus the total number of predictions), and prediction index (ratio of direct hit rate versus proportion of total area predicted as high risk). Results indicate that it is possible to attain functional predictions by applying predictive analysis to grid-level crime data. The monthly predictions with a distinction between day and night produce better results overall than the bi-weekly predictions, indicating that the temporal resolution can have an important impact on the prediction performance.     

翡翠贻贝足丝器的组织结构观察

用光镜和电镜技术初步探讨了翡翠贻贝Ｐｅｒｎａｖｉｒｉｄｉｓ足丝器（Ｂｙｓｓａｌａｐｐｒａｔｕｓ）的三大组成部分之间的空间结构关系，着重观察足丝柄部发生器（ＢＳＧ）的片层结构，揭示小片具有典型的胶原原纤维电镜特征。此外，通过足丝丝部的表面结构观察，发现可用众多的突起来解释足丝表面对放射性碘的强机械吸附作用；利用足丝丝部横切片，计算出其长径约１０５μｍ，短径约４０μｍ。