The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age,sex and level of education for all countries to 2100

This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex—as is conventionally done in demographic projections—but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with the medium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.     

Time series and stochastic analyses to study the hydrodynamic characteristics of karstic aquifers

The regional study of hydrodynamic characteristics of karstic aquifers is challenging because of the great variety of lithology and the structural complexity found in carbonate formations. In order to improve this situation, a combined approach of time series and stochastic analyses was adopted to assess the hydrodynamic behaviour of the karstic aquifers. To achieve this, daily flow rates of 20 springs were taken from the 11 most significant aquifer units of the Basque Country. The results demonstrate the presence of memory effects, which modulated the input rainfall for short‐, medium‐ and long‐term storage capacity, resulting in hydrodynamic properties such as system memory, response time and mean delay between input and output. They reflect the storage and the manner in which these are filled and emptied, thus indicating the karstification of the aquifer. Likewise, the hydrodynamic and hydraulic classification obtained from the stochastic analysis provides a complementary approach to characterize the hydraulic behaviour of the studied karstic aquifers. The discussed examples indicate that this approach provides an excellent method to research hydrological karst systems. It is also shown that the use of hydrologic time series, alone, does not lead to a satisfactory classification of the hydrodynamic characteristics. Therefore, the general approach to hydrological regionalization in karst areas should take into account the structural complexity, heterogeneity of the lithology and the degree of karstification. Only in this case will the regionalization be physically founded, leading to a regional understanding of the hydrodynamic characteristics and flow conditions in a karst aquifer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

云南大平糜棱岩化碱性花岗岩的锆石特征及其地质意义

在哀牢山一金沙江新生代钾质碱性岩浆岩带的南端,云南金平县大平糜棱岩化钠闪石霓石花岗岩中锆石,主要为“变质锆石”和具有老核新壳的“变质复合型锆石”,它们皆具不规则状和圆化的外形,并常高度的富集成堆和显示有一定层位。用ELA-ICP-MS和SHRIMP对锆石定年,结果表明,变质复合型锆石中老核年龄为247．9±6．4Ma,新壳和变质锆石年龄为145．7±3．4Ma。薄片观察发现,在岩体发生糜棱岩化之前还有一次区域变质作用,呈现在糜棱岩化弱的地段岩石发育柱粒变晶结构和花岗变晶结构,而且残留有清楚的层理,由此表明该花岗岩的成因与沉积变质有关。     

The effect of urbanization on stream hydrology in hillslope watersheds in central Texas

This study examined the effect of urbanization on stream hydrology in hillslope watersheds. Ten streams (seven in hillslope and three in gentle slope watersheds) around Austin, Texas were selected for analysis. For each stream, we compared parameters of transfer function (TF) models estimated from daily rainfall and streamflow data collected in two study periods (October 1988–September 1992 and October 2004–September 2008) representing different degrees of watershed urbanization. As expected, the streams became more intermittent as the watersheds were more urbanized in all the study streams. However, the effect of urbanization on peakflow differs between hillslope and gentle slope watersheds. After watershed urbanization, peakflow increased in gentle slope watersheds, but decreased in hillslope watersheds. Based on the results of the TF models, we found that urbanization made stream not flashier but drier in hillslope watersheds. Overpumpage of aquifer has been recognized as a problem that leads to the stream dryness in the study area. However, the overpumpage alone cannot explain the differences in hydrological changes between the two types of watersheds. We attributed the reduced peakflow and stream dryness in the hillslope watersheds to land grading for construction forming stair‐stepped or terraced landscape. Compared with natural hillslope, a stair‐stepped landscape could infiltrate more stormwater by slowing down surface runoff on tread portions of the stair. Our findings suggest that a watershed management scheme should take into account local hydrogeologic conditions to mitigate the stream dryness resulting from urbanization in hillslope watersheds. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

贵屿电子废弃物拆解地及周边地区表层土壤中多溴联苯醚的分布趋势

自2005年以来对电子垃圾拆解地广东贵屿地区多溴联苯醚( PBDEs)污染状况的研究主要集中在垃圾场源区,已不能代表PBDEs对其周边大范围地区的污染现状.为了评价贵屿镇及周边大范围不同土地利用类型的PBDEs污染情况,本文采用网格采样、索氏抽提、复合硅胶/氧化铝层析柱分离纯化、气相色谱-质谱联用技术分析了贵屿拆解场地及其周边72 km2地区表层土壤中8种PBDEs的含量及分布特征.结果显示,与2005年文献数据对比,贵屿镇水库周边土壤的PBDEs污染并无缓解趋势且仍在持续,水稻田土壤中污染有所降低;所有化合物中以十溴联苯醚( BDE 209)占主导,主要分布在贵屿镇及附近的电子垃圾拆解区,含量范围为0.4 ～ 720.9 ng/g(干重),是除BDE 209之外的7种化合物总量(变幅为nd～ 83 ng/g)的10倍以上.PBDEs各化合物的地理分布情况受拆解地区和化合物蒸气压、水溶性等物化性质的影响而显示出显著的差异性:分子量较大的化合物分布在贵屿镇及紧邻村落电子废弃物拆解的主要源区;分子量居中的化合物的分布与特定地点有关;分子量较小的化合物以贵屿镇为中心向四周均匀扩散;且PBDEs从污染源向清洁地区扩散的途中发生了化合物分馏现象.     

城镇地籍调查影像资料录入方式对比分析

该文结合第二次全国土地调查中地籍影像资料录入处理,对比了不同处理方式的质量与成本,给出了较为实用的生产方式,对城镇调查数据库建设的部分工作提出了解决方式。     

Application of a solute transport model under variable velocity conditions in a conduit flow aquifer: Olalde karst system, Basque Country, Spain

A model based on numerical solutions, which allows for solving the dispersion equation under variable recharge and velocity conditions, is developed to simulate solute transport in conduit flow aquifers during flow recession periods. As an example, the evolution of a tracer in the little known karst conduit that links the sinking stream of Oma valley to the Olalde spring is investigated in the karstic region of Santa Eufemia-Ereñozar (Basque Country, Spain). The model, with different hypothetical structures, allows for obtaining series of tracer breakthrough curves, which are fitted to experimental data using an optimization algorithm. These results, although they can be used to simulate the tracer evolution between the two points considered, do not allow for determining the internal structure and spatial disposition of contributions in the aquifer.     

Conceptual model of fracture-limited sea cliff erosion: Erosion of the seaward tilted flyschs of Socoa,Basque Country,France

Sea cliff morphology and erosion rates are modulated by several factors, including rock control that reflects both lithology and rock structure. Erosion is anticipated to preferentially exploit ‘fractures’, broadly meant as any discontinuity in an otherwise continuous medium, where the rock mass is weakest. Unpicking the direct control of such fractures on the spatial and temporal pattern of erosion remains, however, challenging. To analyse how such fractures control erosion, we monitored the evolution of a 400 m-long stretch of highly structured sedimentary cliffs in Socoa, Basque Country, France. The rock is known as the Socoa flysch formation. This formation combines decimetre-thick turbidites composed of repeat triplets of medium to strong calcareous sandstone, laminated siltstones and argillaceous marls. The sequence plunges at 45° into the sea with a shore-parallel strike. The cliffs are cross-cut by two normal and reverse fault families, with 10–100 m alongshore spacing, with primary and secondary strata-bound fractures perpendicular to the bedding, which combined delimit the cliff rock mass into discrete blocks that are exploited by the erosion process. Erosion, and sometimes plucking, of such beds and blocks on the cliff face was monitored using ground-based structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry, over the course of 5.7 years between 2011 and 2017. To compare with longer time change, cliff-top retreat rate was assessed using SfM-orthorectified archive aerial photographs spanning 1954–2008. We show that the 13,250 m² cliff face released 4500 blocks exceeding 1.45 × 10⁻³ m³, removing a total volume of 170 m³. This equates to an average cliff erosion rate of 3.4 mm/year, which is slightly slower than the 54-year-long local cliff-top retreat (10.8 ± 1.8 mm/year). The vertical distribution of erosion reflects the height of sea water inundation, where the maximum erosion intensity occurs ca. 2 m above high spring-tide water level. Alongshore, the distribution of rockfall scars is concentrated along bed edges bounding cross-cutting faults; the extent of block detachment is controlled by secondary tectonic joints, which may extend through several beds locally sharing similar mechanical strength; and rockfall depth is always a multiple of bed thickness. Over the longer term, we explain block detachment and resultant cliff collapse as a cycle. Erosion nucleates on readily exploitable fractures but elsewhere, the sea only meets defect-free medium-strong to strong rock slabs offering few morphological features for exploitation. Structurally delimited blocks are quarried, and with sufficient time, carve semi-elliptic scars reaching progressively deeper strata to be eroded. Lateral propagation of erosion is directed along mechanical weaknesses in the bedding, and large episodic collapses affect the overhanging slabs via sliding on the weak marl beds. Collapse geometry is confined to one or several triplets of turbidite beds, but never reaches deeper into the cliff than the eroded depth at the foot. We contend that this fracture-limited model of sea-cliff erosion, inferred from the Socoa site dynamics and its peculiar sets of fractures, applies more broadly to other fractured cliff contexts, albeit with site-specific geometries. The initiation of erosion, the propagation of incremental block release and the ultimate full failure of the cliff, have each been shown to be fundamentally directly controlled by structure, which remains a vital control in understanding how cliffed coasts have changed in the past and will change in the future.     

A discursive cartography of nationally determined contributions to the Paris climate agreement

The 2015 Paris Agreement was adopted in a geopolitical context that is very different from the post-Cold War era when the Climate Convention was negotiated. This new global climate deal responds to a more fragmented and multipolar world signified by the rise of major economies in the South. This paper examines the geopolitical landscape in which the Paris Agreement is enacted and implemented. We conduct a discursive analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by parties to the Paris Agreement. We ask what policy discourses emerge in these national climate plans, which states cluster around them and how they compare to UNFCCC annex, geographical location, income group, and negotiation coalitions. Our findings suggest that liberal environmentalism retains a strong hold over the political imagination in the post-Paris landscape. However, we see points of diffraction and tensions that might give rise to conflict. While liberal environmentalism is only challenged in Nationally Determined Contributions from the global South, we conclude that conventional geopolitical patterns only partly explain the formation of discourse coalitions. In the Paris Agreement’s implementation stage discursive struggles are likely to become increasingly prominent. Discourse analysis facilitates understanding of disagreements on the Paris rulebook and the global stocktake.