The population structural transition effect on rising per capita CO2 emissions: evidence from China

ABSTRACT

The per capita CO₂ emissions (PCCE) of many developing countries like China have been rising faster than total CO₂ emissions, and display spatial divergence. Such temporal growth and spatial divergence will have a significant influence on efforts to mitigate CO₂ emissions. Given the research gap on the impact of the structural transition in population on PCCE, we constructed an econometric model using the dynamic panel method. The results reveal that the population structural transition has a significant nonlinear impact on PCCE, as the rate of population growth in China decelerates. Both demographic ageing and urban-rural migration have a stronger impact on PCCE than other factors. This effect, however, decreases beyond a certain threshold. An increase in the number of households due to urbanization and family downsizing has resulted in a positive effect on PCCE, without a threshold turning point. The research also finds that an increased share of the service sector in employment can reduce PCCE only if the sector employs more than 31.56% of the total employed population. Overall, these findings indicate that policymakers should pay attention to the prominence of the demographic structural transition for effective climate policy.

Key policy insights

• Policymakers should address rising per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) and their spatial divergence in future climate policies, not just total CO₂ emissions.

• The transitioning demographics of ageing and urbanization in China show a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped effect on PCCE instead of a continuously positive effect.

• Based on the nonlinear effect of employment structure on PCCE, policymakers should focus on the relationship between the structural transition of the economy and PCCE in future climate mitigation policies.

     

Distribution of CMEs with Different Angular Widths and Comparison with the Phase of Sunspot Number in the 23rd Solar Cycle

The variation of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with different angular widths in the period of 1996-2008 is analyzed statistically in this paper, together with a comparison of the feature of time variation between the number of CMEs with some typical angular widths and the number of sunspots.     

组合数学在计算机科学中的应用

介绍了组合数学的概念、起源与研究的主要内容,分析了组合数学的特点,阐述了组合数学与计算机软件的联系,并着重通过两个例子说明了Ramsey数在计算机科学的信息检索、分组交换网设计分支中的重要应用.     

Nonthermal production of baryon and dark matter

We study nonthermal production of baryon and dark matter. If we extend the MSSM by introducing some singlet chiral superfields so as to enlarge the conserved global symmetry, the abundance of the baryon and the dark matter in the universe may be explained as the charge asymmetry of that symmetry. In such a case, the baryon energy density and the dark matter energy density in the present universe can be correlated each other and take the similar order values naturally.     

一种生成大周期伪随机数的新算法——改进的混合同余法

为了克服当前所生成的伪随机数周期小、每个随机数仅能出现1次而不能重复的缺点,本文提出了一种生成伪随机数的新方法,称为改进的混合同余法。     

Static Spheroidal Deformation of Degree 1 - Consistency Relation, Stress Solution and Partials

This paper treats the static spheroidal deformation of degree 1 in detail. We give a physical interpretation of the consistency relation imposed on it. the relation serves as a guiding principle to find out all of its members. Following Okubo & Saito, we derive the partial derivatives of the degree 1 Love numbers with respect to density, bulk modulus and rigidity.     

The Neutral, Barotropic Planetary Boundary Layer, Capped by a Low-Level Inversion

The presence of a low-level, capping inversion layer will affect the height and structure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Results from models of varying levels of sophistication, including analytical, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), second-order closure (SOC), large-eddy simulation (LES) and direct numerical simulation (DNS) models, are used to investigate this influence for the neutral, barotropic PBL. Predicted and observed profiles of stress and geostrophic departure components, and integral measures, such as the parameters of Rossby-number similarity theory, are compared for the KONTUR, Marine Stratocumulus, JASIN, Leipzig, Pre-Wangara and Upavon field experiments.Analytical models of the equilibrium value of inversion height z_i, which depend on the surface friction velocity u_*, and both the Coriolis parameter f and the free-flow Brunt-Väisälä frequency N, are found to give reasonable estimates of the PBL height. They also indicate that only the KONTUR and Marine Stratocumulus experiments were strongly influenced by N. More quantitative comparisons would require larger, more comprehensive datasets. The effects of the presence of a capping inversion on the profile structure were found to be insignificant for h_* = |f|z_i/u_* > 0.15.The simple analytical model performed quite well over all values of h_*; it predicted the profiles of the longitudinal stress component (in the direction of the surface stress) better than the lateral component. The more advanced models performed well for small values of h_* (for flow over the sea), but systematically underestimated the cross-isobaric angle for flow over land. These models predicted the profiles of the lateral stress component better than the longitudinal component. The profiles of the analytical model agreed with those of the advanced models when the constant eddy viscosity of the outer layer was increased.Agreement with DNS was achieved by increasing the eddyviscosity of the analytical model by a factor of 5.Zilitinkevich and Esau(2002, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 104, 371–379)suggest that the neutral, barotropic values of A and B of Rossby-numbersimilarity theory are not universal constants, but depend on the ratio N/|f|. The dependence for A and B is calculated using the analytical model and TKE models. Over the sea (h_* 0.1; N/|f| 100, where we have used the Zilitinkevich-Esau relation to convert between h_* and N/|f|) there is agreement between the model predictions and observations; however over land where the equilibrium boundary-layer height is greater (h_* 0.35; N/|f| 10) the inconsistency between the advanced model predictions (TKE, SOC, LES, and DNS) and observations, as noted previously by Hess and Garratt, still exists. We attribute this disagreement to violations of the strict assumptions of steady, horizontally homogeneous, neutral, barotropic conditions implicit in the observations. At small values of z_i and a strongly stable background stratification (h_* 0.04; N/|f| 1000) both the TKE and analytical models predict that A and B depend significantly on h_*, however observations are unavailable to confirm these predictions. Zilitinkevich and Esau call this case the `long-lived near-neutral PBL', and state that it is found in cold weather at high latitudes.     

天津武清地区云凝结核变化特征

利用2009年11—12月在天津武清气象局测量的云凝结核(CCN:Cloud Condensation Nuclei)浓度资料以及气溶胶数谱分布的观测资料,分析了武清地区在不同过饱和度(0.1%～1.0%)下云凝结核浓度及活化率的变化特征。结果表明:武清地区冬季CCN数浓度变化范围很大,过饱和度1%时,浓度变化范围为4000～32000cm-3,且浓度受风速影响明显,风速2级以下CCN数浓度很高,过饱和度1%时,其平均浓度可达16000cm-3,但对于4级风速以上CCN平均浓度为4000cm-3左右;在过饱和度0.1%～0.4%间CCN浓度变化较大,过饱和度每增加0.1%,CCN浓度增加值平均约为过饱和度0.4%～1.0%间浓度增量的5倍。低过饱和度(0.1%、0.2%)下,活化率受风速影响明显,1级风速下的CCN活化率约为4级风速下的3倍,但在过饱和度1%时活化率则相差不大。CCN浓度的日变化呈双峰型,峰值时刻为北京时间08:00和18:00左右,活化率的日变化则呈双谷型,这主要是受局地排放影响的结果。利用指数函数拟合各风速下CCN浓度过饱和度谱,表明该地谱型为典型的大陆型。     

一次高压型海雾中的液态含水量演变特征

2008年3月16—17日在粤西电白出现了一次在高压天气系统控制下的海雾过程。利用这次海雾的综合观测数据,分析了这一高压型海雾的液态含水量演变特征,讨论了液态含水量与雾滴平均直径和数密度以及气温、风速、湍流交换等的关系。结果显示:(1)海雾有发展-消散-再发展的准周期性变化特征;(2)海雾过程中的雾滴数有显著的变化,而雾滴平均直径的变化较小;雾滴数变化对海雾的发展、消散起主要作用;(3)在海雾生成和发展阶段,空气的冷却机制起主要作用;而在海雾的维持阶段冷却机制的作用并不明显;(4)在雾的生成阶段,弱湍流交换有利于雾的生成;而在雾的发展和维持阶段,湍流交换减弱,液态水增长,反之液态水减少。湍流交换的强、弱与海雾发展-消散-再发展的周期性变化有密切关系。     

Subgrid-Scale Dynamics of Water Vapour, Heat, and Momentum over a Lake

We examine the dynamics of turbulence subgrid (or sub-filter) scales over a lake surface and the implications for large-eddy simulations (LES) of the atmospheric boundary layer. The analysis is based on measurements obtained during the Lake-Atmosphere Turbulent EXchange (LATEX) field campaign (August–October, 2006) over Lake Geneva, Switzerland. Wind velocity, temperature and humidity profiles were measured at 20 Hz using a vertical array of four sonic anemometers and open-path gas analyzers. The results indicate that the observed subgrid-scale statistics are very similar to those observed over land surfaces, suggesting that the effect of the lake waves on surface-layer turbulence during LATEX is small. The measurements allowed, for the first time, the study of subgrid-scale turbulent transport of water vapour, which is found to be well correlated with the transport of heat, suggesting that the subgrid-scale modelling of the two scalars may be coupled to save computational resources during LES.